NCAAF · 38 minutes ago

College Football Week 0 Best Bets: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Welcome back, College Football!

Week 0 marks the first of 19 straight Saturdays with College Football.

If you’re new to B1GBets, each week I will pick Big Ten games, including ATS picks, totals, and team totals. The bets are broken down by units: Not So B1G Bets (1/2 unit), B1G Bets (1 unit), B1GGER Bets (1.5 units), and B1GGEST Bets (2 units).

B1G BETS 2025 BETTING RECORD

2025 Season: 59-50 (+8 UNITS) | ATS Bets: 30-28 (+3.5 UNITS)
Team Totals: 23-14 (+6 UNITS) | Game Totals: 6-7 (-1.5 UNITS)
Not So B1G Bets: 35-30 (+2.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 19-17 (+2 UNITS)
B1GGER Bets: 4-3 (+1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)

Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks weekly!

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT):

USC -38.5 San Jose State (-110 @ BetMGM)

This is an obscene mismatch in terms of talent. USC returns 65 percent of its production, which ranks 14th nationally per SP+. Add to that the top-ranked recruiting class of 2026, which has the Trojans ranked ninth on the 247Sports College Football Team Talent Composite. They have four 5-stars and 39 4-stars on the roster.

San Jose State was absolutely gutted in the offseason. They return just 39 starts and 24 percent of their production from 2025, which is 137th in the country. It must mean they hit the portal hard. Sure, but the guys they brought in are unproven, with a grand total of three starts from their incoming class.

The talent gap has widened.

If the 38.8-point spread scares you away, maybe B1G Bets isn’t for you. I’m going to repeat myself, but only once this season: Scared money, don’t make money!

Here’s a nugget to ease your anxiety. Since 2013, home favorites of 36 points or more are 18-5 ATS (78.3 percent) in Week 0/1. One of those wins was USC’s 73-13 smashing of Missouri State as a 36-point favorite last September.

Lincoln Riley at USC vs. G5/6 Teams

-32.5 vs. Rice (2022): USC 66-14 ✅
-31 vs. San Jose State (2023): USC 56-28 ❌
-38 vs. Nevada (2023): USC 66-14 ✅
-29 vs. Utah State (2024): USC 48-0 ✅
-36 vs. Missouri State (2025): USC 73-13 ✅
-29 vs. Georgia Southern (2025): USC 59-20 ✅

In six games against G5/6 teams (all 29-point spreads or bigger) since Lincoln Riley arrived in SoCal, USC is 5-1 ATS.

But what if they take a big lead early? Won’t they take guys out and pack it in? You mean like last season when the Trojans took a 42-10 lead into the locker room against Missouri State? They won the second half 31-3! USC won the second half 28-0 vs. Georgia Southern, 21-0 vs. Utah State, 31-7 vs. Nevada (24 fourth-quarter points!), 35-14 vs. San Jose State, and 35-0 vs. Rice.

This is Lincoln Riley’s wheelhouse. An inferior team thrown to the lions at the Coliseum.

B1G BET (1 UNIT):

USC OVER 49.5 (-111 @ FanDuel)

The strength of this team, the strength of all of Riley’s teams, is the offense. This year’s unit is not just talented; it has no major holes. The offensive line brings back four starters.

Jayden Maiava is back for a potential Heisman run. In those two early wins last season, Maiava threw for 707 yards and six of his 24 TD passes (25 percent). The stat that pops out the most is his 9.2 yards per attempt. This offense gobbles up yards in chunks. Maiava was at 16.4 YPA vs. Missouri State and 17.2 vs Georgia Southern.

The backfield of Waymond Jordan and King Miller is one of the best one-two punches in college football. They both averaged over 6.0 yards per carry; explosive backs who can take it the distance every time they touch the football.

In those six games we mentioned above, USC scored 59, 73, 48, 66, 56, and 66 points. That’s an average of 61.3 points per game, as they bettered 55 points in five of six tries in this spot. This Saturday, we only need a 50 burger.

Going back to the trend of home favorites of 36-plus points in Week 0/1 (23-game sample since 2013), the average score is 54.3-8.3.

The Men of Troy should be able to match that against a defense that lost its top nine tacklers from last season and 12 of the top 13.

I like to tease Riley, but it’s not all bullying and running it up. His teams ooze with offensive talent. In last year’s opener, Miller was a fourth-string freshman running back who ran for 80 yards on four carries. Five different Trojans had a rushing touchdown; fourteen had a reception. Backup true freshman QB Husan Longstreet accounted for three scores. As we mentioned, the Trojans have the top freshman class and are probably the deepest team Riley has had at SC. I’m fine with letting the backups play when they get a chance.

The Men of Troy pour it on.