College Football Week 12 Picks: MAC-Tion Wednesday Night Best Bets

Mid-week MAC-tion is back, baby! Tonight’s slate features another trio of conference showdowns, including a pair of teams still in the running for a spot in the Championship Game.

Check out what bets we’re targeting with our Week 12 Wednesday night selections!

Where to Watch Toledo Rockets vs Miami (OH) RedHawks

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Stadium: Fred C. Yager Stadium
Location: Oxford, OH
Where to Watch: ESPN2
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: TOL -4.5 | Total: 45.5
Moneyline: TOL -200 | M-OH +170

The Miami (OH) RedHawks are one of the aforementioned teams with championship aspirations. They sit 4-1 in conference action, needing a win to stay in the driver’s seat in the MAC. Already saddled with two conference losses, the Toledo Rockets need to win out and get a little help if they hope to climb the MAC mountain. That’s a recipe for a thrilling showdown at Fred C. Yager Stadium.

Miami (OH) has done enough on offense this season, but its bread and butter is stout defensive play. So far this season, they’ve held opponents to just 327.9 yards per game, looking equally capable at defending the run and pass. Predictably, that correlates with a top-tier scoring defense. The RedHawks allow just 21.7 points per game, holding three of their five conference opponents below that benchmark.

As good as the Rockets’ offense has looked this season, they’ve been utterly neutralized away from home. They average north of 512 yards per game in their friendly confines, falling by nearly 200 yards to just 334.3 as the visitors. More concerningly, Toledo’s scoring efficiency evaporates, as it has recorded 16 or fewer points in all but one of those contests.

We’re not expecting substantive improvement from the Rockets in Week 12. Miami ranks among the conference’s premier defenses, and a rowdy home crowd will insulate it. Toledo could very well walk away with the victory, but it won’t be covering the spread.

Best Bet: RedHawks +4.5

Where to Watch Buffalo Bulls vs Central Michigan Chippewas

Stadium: Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Location: Mount Pleasant, MI
Where to Watch: CBSSN
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: CMU -2.5 | Total: 44.5
Moneyline: CMU -125 | BUF +105

Sitting at 4-1 in the MAC standings, the Buffalo Bulls hold a slight advantage over the 3-2 Central Michigan Chippewas. However, that advantage isn’t reflected in tonight’s betting line. The Chippewas are out in front, positioned as -2.5 favorites over the conference frontrunners. If Buffalo hopes to maintain its edge, it needs to fire on all cylinders at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.

Like the rest of the conference, Buffalo’s reputation has been established on the defensive side of the football. Through nine games, the Bulls have held their opponents to an average of 323.6 yards and 19.6 points per game. Moreover, we’ve seen them operating at peak efficiency in their most recent outings. Last week, Bowling Green was limited to three points on 216 yards, failing to sustain drives or pick up meaningful gains.

Sadly, the Chippewas can’t be counted on to break through the Bulls’ defensive structure. Central Michigan has been entirely unremarkable on offense. While their ground game has excelled at times, this is still a team that averages 338.9 yards per game. Additionally, the Chippewas have been held to 276 yards or fewer in two of their previous three, supporting their inevitable decline against the Bulls.

Buffalo is an undeserving underdog in this intra-conference affair. Clearly, they’ve been the superior team this season, and the Bulls can lean into their defensive advantages against a flailing offense. This has upset written all over it.

Best Bet: Buffalo +105

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Where to Watch Northern Illinois Huskies vs UMass Minutemen

Stadium: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Location: Amherst, MA
Where to Watch: ESPNU
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: NIU -12.5 | Total: 43.5
Moneyline: NIU -550 | MASS +380

You have to be some kind of bad for the 2-7 Northern Illinois Huskies to be favored by -12.5 against you. That’s the dilemma facing the UMass Minutemen, as they try to salvage at least one win before the end of the campaign. Unfortunately, that’s not in the cards tonight.

At the same time, we need to manage expectations for the Huskies. NIU has been one of the worst teams in the country this season. Their two wins came against Holy Cross in Week 1 and Ball State in Week 9, and they continue to rank as the 134th-ranked total and 135th-ranked scoring offense. Nevertheless, Northern Illinois’ defensive efficiency has been its redeeming quality. Expect that unit to shine on Wednesday.

UMass has been unable to mount an offensive attack this season. The MAC basement dwellers muster a laughable 244.6 yards and 11.3 points per game, dropping them to the nether regions of the national rankings. Moreover, the Minutemen have done nothing on defense to give this team a chance to compete, allowing 441.8 yards and 36.8 points per game.

We don’t trust the Huskies’ offense to do what’s necessary to pull away and cover this hefty spread on the road. However, UMass won’t have many scoring opportunities throughout the contest. With that, we’re planting our flag on the under in this forgettable Wednesday night game.

Best Bet: NIU-MASS Under 43.5