College Football Week 14 Picks: Black Friday Best Bets

This is it, the final month of the college football regular season. Teams are gearing up for playoff pushes, conference championship games, and just trying to stay bowl eligible.

We’ve got our favorite plays lined up for Week 14’s Friday night slate!

Where to Watch (7) Ole Miss Rebels vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
Location: Starkville, MS
Where to Watch: ABC
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Spread: MISS -7.5 | Total: 62.5
Moneyline: MISS -290 | MSST +240

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Few things rival the intensity of an in-state college football rivalry, and the Egg Bowl is no exception. Looking to move to 6-6 and earn bowl eligibility, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are hoping to upset the seventh-ranked Ole Miss Rebels at Davis Wade Stadium.

Granted, the Bulldogs haven’t excelled in conference play. Still, this is a team loaded with offensive potential. Mississippi State has averaged 399.3 yards per game over its last four home contests, eclipsing 34 points in all but one of those contests. Expect that offensive proficiency to be on full display against a Rebels squad that has given up at least 24 points in three of its last five.

At the same time, Ole Miss has benefitted from a home-friendly schedule. This marks just their fourth road game of the season, and they’ve covered the spread in only one of those three previous contests. Predictably, the Rebels’ offensive efficiency takes a hit on the road, but they are most susceptible on defense. Across those three games, opponents are averaging 31.3 points per game.

Scoring will flow naturally in this high-octane rivalry clash. This has all the makings of a last-possession game, making it unlikely the Rebels will cover the -7.5 spread.

Best Bet: Mississippi State +7.5

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Where to Watch (4) Georgia Bulldogs vs (23) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Location: Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: ABC
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: UGA -13.5 | Total: 59.5
Moneyline: UGA -750 | GT +475

There is a clear divide between the SEC and the ACC, a fact reflected in the Week 14 spread between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Bulldogs hold a sincere advantage over the Yellow Jackets at this “neutral" site clash, but there will be no shortage of offense as Georgia Tech tries to keep pace.

Offense has been the Yellow Jackets’ calling card this season. Armed with the fifth-ranked total and 20th-ranked scoring offense, G-Tech has steamrolled opponents since the start of the season. Still, that offensive firepower has been muted by their defensive inability. The ACC contenders have given up 42 or more points in two of their last three, yielding 41.3 points per game over that three-game sample.

Georgia’s offense will have no problem adding to those defensive woes on Black Friday. The Bulldogs have totaled 111 points over their previous three contests, as evidenced by their 457.7 yards per game. Still, they’ve been unable to contain opponents late in the season, with three of their last five foes producing at least 20 points.

Georgia will pull away early in this one, but the Yellow Jackets won’t go down without a fight. We’re taking a firm position on the over in the latest installment of the Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate rivalry.

Best Bet: UGA-GT Over 59.5

Where to Watch San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos

Stadium: University Stadium
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Where to Watch: CBSSN
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: SDSU -1.5 | Total: 41.5
Moneyline: SDSU -120 | NMEX +100

No one could have predicted the mayhem of the Mountain West. The Boise State Broncos have failed to live up to their billing, leaving the door open for the San Diego State Aztecs and New Mexico Lobos to make a run up the standings. While the Broncos still have a chance to clinch a spot in the MWC Championship Game, Friday’s battle between the Aztecs and Lobos could very well end up being a preview of next week’s clash.

New Mexico needs a win to have a shot in the Mountain West winner-take-all showdown. However, they will also need the Broncos to suffer defeat at the hands of Utah State. From there, it will come down to a myriad of computer-generated metrics. However, we like the Lobos’ chances of taking care of business at home. They rank prominently in rush defense metrics, limiting opponents to just 106.2 rushing yards per game, a benchmark that plummets to 70.0 over their last three.

That puts the Aztecs in a bind ahead of this pivotal showdown. San Diego State turns to the ground more frequently than just about any other college football program. So far this season, 187.6 of their 340.5 yards per game come via the rushing attack, accounting for 55.1% of their total offensive production.

San Diego State doesn’t necessarily miss out on the Mountain West Championship Game with a loss, but they will need Boise State and UNLV to lose, or at the very least struggle, to maintain their championship aspirations. Unfortunately, we’re betting the Lobos rain on that parade, moving to the front of the MWC pack with a win.

Best Bet: New Mexico +100