National Championship Betting: Kalshi Market Value vs Sports Betting Odds
Grant White
Host · Writer
Over three months ago, we embarked on the 2025 college football season. With one last regular season week before we head into Championship weekend, the College Football Playoff field has taken shape. There are still a few spots up for grabs, but over half the field is virtually guaranteed a postseason berth. While the field has narrowed, there is still value in backing a National Championship winner.
Let’s evaluate whether the Kalshi market or the traditional sports betting market is the best entry point.
Chalky Favorites
With just three undefeated left standing, there is a dichotomy between the frontrunners and the rest of the National Championship pack. Led by the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Indiana Hoosiers, and the Texas A&M Aggies, also count themselves as betting favorites.
Ohio State remains the odds-on favorite to repeat as champs. The Kalshi market gives the Buckeyes a 35% chance of winning the Natty. In actual dollars returned, that aligns almost precisely with the current sportsbook odds of +185. If you wagered $100, bettors would get back $285 at sportsbooks or $286 through Kalshi.
There are more notable discrepancies for the Hoosiers and Aggies. Sportsbooks have Indiana and Texas A&M’s odds listed at +500 and +750, respectively. Backing either squad on Kalshi gives bettors a significant advantage. The Hoosiers are given a 15% chance of hoisting the CFP Trophy, with the Aggies close behind at 11%. From a dollar’s perspective, $100 wagers would return $667 for the Big Ten contenders and $910 for the presumed SEC representatives.
That leaves an 11.2% edge on Indiana and a 7.1% edge on Texas A&M, backing either team in Kalshi instead.
Little to No Edge Whatsoever
Prices fluctuate daily based on incoming money, but specific markets are more stagnant than others. With that, there are several teams where no betting edge exists whatsoever.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have found themselves near the top of the betting board since the offseason. Currently priced at +1000 at sportsbooks and at 9% on the Kalshi market, bettors can enter either market and expect the same level of return.
Likewise, the Alabama Crimson Tide is fighting for a playoff spot, needing a decisive Week 14 win to secure a postseason berth. The betting market is somewhat bullish on their chances, but National Championship bettors can feel comfortable grabbing Alabama at either locale. Kalshi gives the Crimson Tide a 6% chance of winning the title, roughly equaling the +1700 price at most shops.
Finally, there is a negligible impact on backing the Georgia Bulldogs on the Kalshi market. But at 10% versus +1000, the 0.9% edge is hardly worth the sweat.
Optimal Value
As is the case with any sports betting market, the sharpest bettors will find optimal value before taking their position. Fret not, as we’ve got you covered for National Championship betting.
Undoubtedly, the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ meteoric rise up the college football ranks is the most noteworthy story of the season. Starting the season as +15000 longshots, the Red Raiders are now priced as +1200 contenders in futures betting. Relative to the Kalshi market, that leaves bettors with a significant betting advantage as we head into Week 14. Listed at 6% on Kalshi, bettors would return $1667 on a $100 wager. More simply, that’s a 28.2% edge in backing Texas Tech on the peer-to-peer marketplace.
The opposite is true for the Oklahoma Sooners. Given a 3% chance at Kalshi, $100 would equate to a $3,334 return. Compared to their +4000 sportsbook odds, the Sooners would net bettors $4,100 on the same $100 wager. That’s a 23.0% advantage by going the traditional route.
Granted, the Utah Utes face a much steeper climb up the playoff rankings. Still, they are in the same position as Texas Tech and Oklahoma, yielding a sizeable edge depending on entry point. Given less than a 1% chance of winning the title at Kalshi, bettors would return $10,000 on a $100 bet. Compared to their betting price of +12500, that leaves a 26.0% difference in backing the Utes at a sportsbook than on the Kalshi market.
National Championship Odds – Pick Your Spots
The sports betting market continues to evolve, but one piece of age-old betting advice holds: shop around. Bettors can’t demand better odds, but there are different avenues to pursue to maximize profitability and a long-term winning edge. The National Championship betting odds are a perfect example of such. Depending on your position, you may find more profitable entry points in either the Kalshi market or traditional sportsbooks. It’s worth the effort to find the optimal odds to ensure your long-term positions.
Stay with SportsGrid for exclusive insights from prediction markets like Kalshi as the college football season wraps up and the playoff picture sharpens.
