College Football Playoff Bubble Teams Kalshi Odds: Who’s In/Out?
Grant White
Host · Writer
The advent of Kalshi has flourished into a new and exciting (and equitable) form of gambling. For the uninitiated, bettors take stakes on event contracts based on the probability of any given event happening. While this blazes trails in the political and pop culture realms, it opens new avenues for the sharpest sports bettors to have profitable seasons.
With the College Football Playoff on the horizon, we’re using the Kalshi markets to determine which teams are in and out of the 12-team field!
Most Definitely In
Several teams have already guaranteed themselves a spot in this year’s College Football Playoff. The Ohio State Buckeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, Texas A&M Aggies, and Georgia Bulldogs have done enough to warrant inclusion in the 12-team field, and have already been taken off the board at most shops. That’s confirmed via the Kalshi markets, as none of those teams are available to bet to make the playoffs.
If bettors want to get a piece of the Buckeyes, Hoosiers, Aggies, or Bulldogs, you’ll have to look at the National Championship board.
Most Likely In
There is a trio of teams in the tier just below those frontrunners. While it seems like a virtual lock, something could still go awry for any one of these contenders over the last few weeks of the regular season.
As it stands, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are ranked as the most probable team to make the CFP. Current market odds give them a 95% chance to be included in the 12-team field. At this point, the Red Raiders don’t necessarily have to win the Big 12 Championship Game to earn their spot. While it seems likely they prevail, the conference frontrunners have enough signature wins to woo the CFP Committee.
By virtue of their standing as an Independent, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish don’t have the luxury of an automatic berth. Instead, they have to win their way in via a strong regular-season record. Thankfully, there is no shortage of top teams that want to try their hand against the Irish. Two season-opening losses have long since been forgotten, and Notre Dame appears set to make the playoffs for the second straight year. That’s reflected in their Kalshi odds, which give the Fighting Irish a 92% chance of playing for the Natty.
Finally, the Ole Miss Rebels are all but guaranteed a spot in this year’s bracket. Sitting with an 88% chance to be included, the Rebels need to end strong to validate their standing.
Need to Win Out
The next group of competitors features three teams that need to win out. Otherwise, their National Championship aspirations will be extinguished.
Last week, the Oklahoma Sooners were on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in. Already sitting with two losses, the Sooners had just a 29% chance of making the playoffs. But a monumental upset win over the Alabama Crimson Tide shifted the betting winds. Oklahoma saw a 35% increase in its odds to make the playoffs, now sitting at 64%. A berth in the SEC Championship Game is likely out of the question, meaning the Sooners can’t afford to fumble this at the goal line.
Predictably, Week 12’s upset had a cascading effect on the Crimson Tide. Alabama lost 24% of its market share, falling from a 94% chance to make the CFP to a 70% chance. Saturday’s defeat marks Bama’s second loss of the season, leaving no room for error in Weeks 13 and 14.
Most of the attention has been focused on Ohio State and Indiana in the Big Ten, but the Oregon Ducks have quietly been taking care of business. Riding a four-game winning streak and sitting with a 9-1 record, the Ducks are flying into a presumed postseason berth. The USC Trojans and Washington Huskies lie in their immediate horizon, but a slip-up versus either team will cause the Ducks’ 74% odds to come crashing down.
Need a Championship Win
With five conference champions guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field, several teams still have an outside shot of upsetting the playoff balance.
The BYU Cougars are one of the fiercest competitors in the Big 12. A decisive loss to Texas Tech in Week 11 sent the Cougars down the rankings, but there is still a path back to the CFP. BYU needs to win out and claim victory over the Red Raiders in the conference championship if it wants to beat its 31% odds.
Likewise, there is no clear frontrunner in the ACC. Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Miami currently have 38%, 32%, and 25% odds of making the playoff, respectively. In such a tightly contested conference, the winner of the conference championship game will be the only representative in this year’s playoff field.
Most Likely Out
A handful of teams are clinging to unreasonable expectations. The rest of these teams have 25% or lower odds, implying little to no chance of making the CFP.
Utah leads the way at 25%, but it appears unlikely the Utes possess the faculties to challenge Texas Tech or BYU in the Big 12. Similarly, the Michigan Wolverines (18%), SMU Mustangs (18%), and USC Trojans (14%) need a minor miracle to earn a bid this late in the season. Finally, Vanderbilt (14%), Pittsburgh (10%), and Texas (6%) will all be hoping for a notable bowl game in their respective postseasons.
Final Thoughts – Kalshi Market Insights
It may look funny to experienced sports bettors, but the Kalshi market offers valuable insights into the world of sports betting. Bettors can test their systems and projections against an open market system that evaluates sports betting odds. More importantly, it could be a solid entry point, as the implied probability of the odds varies significantly from bet to bet. The sharpest bettors will use that to their advantage, especially when it comes to betting the College Football Playoff.
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