Big Ten CFP Picks: Indiana vs Oregon Prediction | Peach Bowl

The last two Big Ten Champs meet in the College Football Playoff semifinal in the heart of SEC country. While the SEC is eliminated before the Championship Game for a third-straight season, the B1G is looking to threepeat. Does that make the Big Ten kings of the college football universe? Maybe, but that’s a conversation for another column on another day.

Because the No. 1 seed Indiana Hoosiers take on the No. 5 Oregon Ducks in the Peach Bowl, we have two more B1GBets before we wrap up the 2025 season. The winner tonight advances to face the Miami Hurricanes in the Natty.

Tonight’s matchup features Curt Cignetti versus Dan Lanning, two of the best and brashest coaches in the game. We could potentially see QB1 versus QB2 in the upcoming NFL Draft. So, let’s get to it!

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks weekly!

Last Week: 8-1 (+6 UNITS) | Overall: 58-49 (+8 UNITS)

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Where to Watch the Rose Bowl

• Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Location: Atlanta, GA
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Date: January 9, 2026
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Rose Bowl: Indiana vs. Oregon Betting Odds

• Spread: Indiana -3.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 48.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
• Moneyline: Indiana -180 | Oregon +150

Rose Bowl: Indiana vs. Oregon Kalshi Odds

• Chance: Indiana 62% | Oregon 38%
• Spread: Indiana -3.5 Yes 50¢ | No 51¢
• Total: Over 49.5 Yes 49¢ | No 53¢

College Football Bowl Game Picks: B1G BET (1 UNIT)

Indiana -3.5 Oregon (@BetMGM)

These are both elite teams with elite metrics. They may be the best two teams in the country.

Indiana is the undisputed No. 1 team at 14-0, while at 13-1, Oregon’s only loss this season came at the hands of these Hoosiers, 30-20 in Eugene. IU out-gained the Ducks 326 yards to 267, had 23 first downs to 14, averaged 6.9 yards per pass to 5.5, and 3.0 yards per rush to 2.7.

Despite a Fernando Mendoza pick-six and an uncharacteristic eight penalties that day, Indiana was the better team in Autzen Stadium. There’s no reason to expect that chance on Friday night.

Despite all of its upside, Oregon’s offense hasn’t really shown the ability to step against the best defenses it’s faced this season. The Ducks scored 17 points in regulation at Penn State, 20 points versus Indiana (including the aforementioned pick-six), 18 points at Iowa, and 23 points in their quarterfinals win, including a garbage time TD (16 seconds left), with just six points in the first half. Thanks to their defense, Oregon won the time of possession 38 minutes to 22, wearing Texas Tech’s defense down in the second half. They won’t have that luxury in the Peach Bowl.

I like Dante Moore as a quarterback, but he doesn’t do well under pressure and isn’t nearly as good as when forced to scramble, as many would assume (121st scramble EPA). IU’s defense is among the best at getting to the quarterback, limiting chunk yards on scrambles, and creating negative plays.

The first time these teams met, Bryant Haines’s defense sacked Moore six times and intercepted him twice. The Ducks have talent along their offensive line, but their tackles are a tad overrated, and the group can be inconsistent as a whole. IU’s front seven won the battle that day, with their top three linebackers—Aiden Fisher (1.5 sacks, 13 tackles), Rolijah Hardy (1 sack, 2 TFLs, 13 tackles), and Isaiah Jones (1 sack, 2 TFLs, 8 tackles)—all getting into the offensive backfield multiple times.

This is what the Hoosiers do. They get to the quarterback (42 sacks, 5th nationally) and take away the football (26 turnovers created, 6th nationally). Yes, they will be without Stephen Daley, but he’s one of five IU defenders with five-plus sacks, a group led by athletic, blitzing linebackers Hardy (8 sacks) and Jones (7).

It all starts upfront with their size, depth, and experience. Their physical defensive line wins at the line of scrimmage and keeps those linebackers clean. Tyrique Tucker brings pressure up the middle, while Mario Landino and Mikail Kamara are explosive off the edge. We mentioned that Kamara, who had ten sacks in 2024, wasn’t among their key pass rushers this year, but he came up with a big sack against Alabama. Banged up at times this season, he could be primed for a big finish.

Not to be forgotten is a strong secondary. Safety Louis Moore leads them with six interceptions, Jamari Sharpe has forced four fumbles, and D’Angelo Ponds is a legit lockdown No. 1 coverman.

I’m not ready to say this is the best defense I’ve seen, but you’d be hard-pressed to find another group that is so disruptive and creates havoc with their aggressiveness and blitzes, while always playing sound scheme football and remaining disciplined. The Hoosiers were second in the country with a whopping 118 tackles for a loss (8.43 per game) while giving up the fifth fewest plays of ten-plus yards.

This is a team that doesn’t beat itself: +18 in turnover margin (tied for 1st) and 27.1 penalty yards per game (2nd only to Army).

Equally tough to pass and throw on, Indiana’s defense is one of the few that can contain Oregon’s ground game. The Ducks did have success on the ground in their earlier meeting, but will be without Jordon Davison, who led them with 59 yards that day, is second on the team in rushing, and first in touchdowns (15). In addition to Davison, running back Jayden Limar has entered the portal. Limar, who had a 27-yard reception against Tech, would have a bigger role with Davison injured.

IU’s defense has kept 13 of 14 opponents to 20 points or less, and I don’t see Oregon scoring much more in the Peach Bowl. Also, keep in mind that brilliant OC Will Stein has his attention split between the CFP and building Kentucky’s roster.

The Ducks have a strong defense of their own, but aren’t nearly as disruptive as the Hoosiers and have some potential vulnerabilities. For starters, they’re ranked 88th in sack EPA, and have also had trouble stopping running quarterbacks, ranked 136th in designed QB runs EPA. Their run defense isn’t as stout (36th in rushing success rate), they’re not great getting off the field (50th in 3rd/4th down success), or in the red zone (79th in points/quality drive).

Behind what is probably the best offense lines, one that seems to be getting better as the season goes on, the Hoosiers will look to establish the run.

Roman Hemby (1,007 yards, 5.2 YPC, 7 TDs) and Kaelon Black (898 yards, 5.7 YPC, 8 TDs) are the type of no-nonsense north-south runners you’d expect a Cignetti team to feature. Then there’s Mendoza, who adds another six rushing touchdowns and the ability to move the chains with his legs when called upon.

The Ducks have been tough to throw on, and the pass defense has put up impressive numbers, but how often have they been tested? USC threw for over 300 yards, and while they focused on limiting Makai Lemon, two other Trojans had 100-yard receiving days against them.

Elijah Sarratt had 121 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions in their first matchup, and that was before the emergence of big-play weapon Charlie Becker, and the Hoosiers were without E.J. Williams that day, a pair of 6’4” targets. Becker had six catches for 105 yards going into November and has put up 22 receptions for 461 yards since then. He’s averaging 20.2 yards per catch, has gone over 100 receiving yards in three of his past five games, and his ability to stretch the field needs to be accounted for.

Finally, there’s Mendoza, who continued his special season into the CFP. The Heisman Trophy winner has thrown for 3,172 yards, averaging an impressive 9.6 YPA with 36 TDs to 6 INTs, while completing 72.3 percent of his passes. He was nearly perfect in the Rose Bowl: 14 of 16 (87.5%), 192 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs, and 12.0 YPA.

The former Cal QB makes excellent decisions, is an accurate passer, is mobile, and can hit the deep ball. Mendoza also feels like he’s peaking, and even when he does make a mistake, he’s flashed the ability to shake it off, get back on the field, and play winning football (see Oregon and Iowa games).

In the four key categories—head coach, quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line—I give the Hoosiers the edge in everyone, especially in the trenches. It won’t be as easy as it was against Alabama, but Indiana gets the win by seven to 14 points.

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