NCAAF · 23 minutes ago

College Football Week 4 Best Bets: 6 B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Big Ten play begins in earnest this week with eight conference games. The action starts tonight in Bloomington, home of the defending national champs. Let that sink in!

Saturday brings seven more conference games, plus Purdue hosting Notre Dame. The biggest game of Week 4 features No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC, a pair of former Pac-12 rivals desperate to win a big game and stake their claim as a playoff contender. Before that, No. 18 Michigan takes on No. 17 Iowa in Ann Arbor in another ranked-vs.-ranked tussle. Expect a rock fight in the Big House.

I’m ready for some Big Ten football!

B1G BETS 2026 BETTING RECORD

Last Week: 4-1-1 (+1.5 UNITS)
2026 Season: 11-12-1 (-2 UNITS) | ATS Bets: 7-8-1 (-2 UNITS)
Team Totals: 4-3 (+0.5 UNIT) | Game Totals: 0-1 (-0.5 UNIT)
Not So B1G Bets: 9-7-1 (+1 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 2-5 (-3 UNITS)
B1GGER Bets: 0-0 (0 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (0 UNITS)

Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks weekly!

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT): 9-7-1 (+1 UNIT)

INDIANA -19.5 Northwestern (@FanDuel)

I’m higher on Northwestern than most, but this is a big step up for the Wildcats sandwiched in between their final game at Martin Stadium and their first game at the New Ryan Field, which opens next Friday night against Penn State.

Indiana’s offense is elite. Josh Hoover is up to 10 touchdown passes and a whopping 12.7 YPA, with Charlie Becker (12-272-6 TDs) and Nick Marsh (12-272-6 TDs) among the nation’s top receiving duos. Turbo Richard (315 yards, 7.7 YPC) has been everything the Hoosiers have expected.

Northwestern’s defense is solid, but they will be outmanned in the trenches, and losing nickelback Braden Turner is a big blow both against the run and in covering the slot.

The Hoosiers are a juggernaut at home under Curt Cignetti with a perfect 18-0 record, including 9-0 in conference play. They are 6-3 at home ATS and have won by more than 20 points in their past five Big Ten games in Bloomington.

Cignetti has chided his fans for leaving games early, so expect Indiana to put on a show for the home crowd in their B1G opener.

OHIO STATE OVER 40.5 (@DraftKings)

Since Julian Sayin’s first career start against Texas last season, Ohio State has scored at least 37 points in eight-straight home games. Jeremiah Smith is already up to 400 yards and three TDs, and the next four wideouts behind him are all averaging over 14.5 YPC. Five-star true freshman Chris Henry Jr. has two catches (90 yards), both for touchdowns.

Bo Jackson (230 yards, 5.9 YPC) has produced solidly on the ground.

Illinois brings a rebuilt defensive front that has just three sacks through three games despite playing UAB (one sack/31 attempts) and Southern Illinois (one sack/42 attempts).

It’s early in the season, but the Illini’s defense has been among the worst in college football, ranked 116th in EPA/play and 105th in success rate. Now they have to take on OSU in Columbus? Yikes.

Katin Houser has carried this team so far, but do you trust him in his first Big Ten road start since his Michigan State days? He’s been intercepted in each of the past two games, and look for him to add to that total on Saturday, which could lead to some short fields for the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin UNDER 16.5 (@DraftKings)

This is mostly a fade of a bad Wisconsin offense. We’ve faded them going back to last season when they failed to score more than 13 points in eight of their final nine games, a streak that continued in their season-opening 41-13 loss to Notre Dame. The last time they scored more than one touchdown on the road came in 2024.

This year’s team is different, but is it better?

The lack of a running game is a serious problem. The Badgers are 91st in rushing success rate and 83rd in EPA/rush. That won’t cut it against a Penn State defense that has been tough to move the ball against. The Nittany Lions have allowed 3.51 yards per play, which is sixth in the country.

Colton Joseph hit some big plays last week against an EMU defense that’s ranked 122nd by SP+, a far cry from a PSU unit ranked 14th by SP+, as the former ODU QB makes his first Big Ten start at Beaver Stadium. Not the ideal place to get your feet wet.

PSU’s speedy linebackers Tony Rojas (16 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack), Caleb Bacon (12 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 sack), and Kooper Ebel (16 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 sack) will make life tough for Joseph and Wisconsin’s running backs.

MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 21.5 (@DraftKings)

We’re going to keep fading bad offenses until they prove us wrong.

It’s shocking to hear multiple pundits praise MSU’s effort last week against Notre Dame when they managed 10 points. Alessio Milivojevic threw for 123 yards and two INTs (no TD), and their running backs picked up 64 yards on 19 carries.

Sure, ND’s defense is better than Nebraska’s, but the Cornhuskers are still a big step up from Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Despite two MAC foes in three games, Sparty is 113th in yards per play (5.21).

Milivojevic has made five starts against Power 4 teams and has scored 21 points once.

New defensive coordinator Rob Aurich was an excellent hire by Matt Rhule. Their 4-2-5 scheme is similar to Iowa’s and does a good job of limiting big plays.

I like Nebraska’s secondary, which should match up well with MSU’s pedestrian receivers. They’ve also found a way to generate nine sacks through three games, with interior linemen Riley Van Poppel (2 sacks) and Jahsear Whittington (1.5 sacks), a talented duo.

Maybe Nebraska will continue to impress. Maybe Pat Fitzgerald muddies it up. Maybe Rhule’s road woes rear their ugly head. None of those scenarios suggests a big-scoring game for the Spartans.

WASHINGTON -10 Minnesota (@Bet365)

While I haven’t loved what I’ve seen from Washington so far, this spot plays into their advantage. Partly because of the two-time zone trend. The Gophers have played three Pacific Time Zone games over the past two seasons, and they are 0-3 ATS.

Minnesota on Pacific Time

2024 @UCLA -4.5 – Won 21-17
2025 @Cal -2.5 – Lost 27-14
2025 @Oregon +25 – Lost 42-13

At the same time, the Huskies are 5-1 when hosting a team traveling multiple time zones, including 5-1 ATS, with the lone loss for both coming against No. 1 Ohio State last season. This is where Demond Williams is most comfortable and where Jedd Fisch has found his most success.

Washington Hosting the B1G Midwest/East

2024 vs. Northwestern -11.5 – Won 24-5
2024 vs. Michigan -1.5 – Won 27-17
2025 vs. Ohio State +8.5 – Lost 24-6
2025 vs. Rutgers -10.5 – Won 38-19
2025 vs. Illinois -3.5 – Won 42-25
2025 vs. Purdue -14.5 – Won 49-13

Washington has flourished in this spot, and they’re a perfect 5-0 ATS when favored, covering by over a touchdown each time!

P.J. Fleck’s team is bad at traveling long distances, and it’s also been a while since they rose to the occasion. They are 0-7 as a road underdog by more than four points, including 1-6 ATS since 2022.

The Huskies could see the return of starting C Landen Hatchett (questionable) for their Big Ten opener. After missing the first three games, this week is the most Hatchett has practiced this season, according to Fisch.

The offense has been very disappointing through three games, but Fisch is an excellent offensive coach, and Williams is very good. They’ll figure it out. Washington’s running game showed some life last week, and the Gophers are ranked 103rd in EPA/rush defensively.

As lackluster as the Huskies have looked in their 3-0 start, they’ve never looked as bad as Minnesota did in their only Power 4 game, a 38-13 home loss to Mississippi State.

If you’ve been thinking of signing up for NOVIG, now might be the time because they have Washington -9.5.

B1G BET (1 UNIT): 2-5 (-3 UNITS)

Northwestern UNDER 14.5 (@DraftKings)

The Chip Kelly hire looks brilliant so far (it’s only been two games), and I believe he can get the best out of Aiden Chiles. I also believe that even at his best, Chiles will struggle against a defense of Indiana’s caliber.

IU’s edge in the trenches widened this week, as the Hoosiers will welcome back defensive linemen Stephen Daley (who had to sit out last week) and Kellan Wyatt, who won their injunction this week, while Northwestern will be without Ezomo Oratokhai, their best blocker.

Also out for the ‘Cats is their second-best receiver, Hayden Eligon II, which will allow Indiana to key in on WR1 Griffin Wilde. Not many teams are as good as the Hoosiers at taking away what you do best.

After giving up 28 points to Maryland in their first B1G home game of 2024, Bryant Haines’s defense has allowed 8.14 PPG in their past 14 home games, holding opponents to 13 points or less nine times (with a high of 17 points allowed).

And don’t believe that’s because of their easy out-of-conference scheduling. In their past eight B1G home games, IU has allowed 9.38 PPG, keeping six of eight foes to 13 points or less.

They dominate the trenches and hold down Northwestern’s offense, which will live to fight another day.

Minnesota UNDER 17.5 (@FanDuel)

A big part of my confidence in the Huskies covering the spread is a defense that is easily the best of the Fisch era.

S Alex McLaughlin (24 tackles) and LB Jacob Manu (24 tackles) are reliable seniors who fly to the football. They affect every aspect of the offense, stopping the run, defending the pass in coverage, and getting after the quarterback as blitzers.

The Huskies have flashed good depth up front and will have their top DT, Elinneus Davis, back for Saturday. Their defensive front six/seven should win against a subpar Minnesota offensive line.

The linebacking corps is athletic and comfortable dropping back to cover. The aforementioned McLaughlin (2 INTs) is one of 10 Huskies who have an INT or pass defensed. Top CB Emmanuel Karnley (questionable) could be back after missing the past two games.

Washington is second in defensive EPA (3rd/rush, 10th/pass) and seventh in defensive success rate per Game on Paper. If they’re healthy, this secondary will trouble Drake Lindsey.

The Gophers are 84th in EPA/pass and 75th in EPA/play.

The redshirt sophomore is making his first road start of 2026, and he didn’t fare well away from home last season. His completion percentage was down, as were his TDs (6), while he doubled his INTs (4) on the road. Lindsey averaged just 5.5 YPA in enemy stadiums while taking the same number of sacks (9) despite 65 fewer attempts.

Husky Stadium is one of the toughest venues to visit, especially under the lights.

Iowa UNDER 16.5 (@DraftKings)

I considered Michigan, and you can certainly make a case for UNDER on the game total, which led me to UNDER Iowa.

Even though some of Iowa’s offensive numbers look good coming into the Big Ten opener for both teams, they’re inflated by scoring 40 points on 0-3 Northern Illinois (lost to Illinois State) and 55 points against FCS Northern Iowa. They struggled against Iowa State (16 points), averaging just 6.4 yards per pass and 3.2 yards per rush.

It was a slog at home against the Cyclones, and now they take on a better defense on the road.

Digging deeper, Game on Paper has Iowa’s offense ranked 92nd in EPA/play and 68th in success rate. The offensive line has a pair of studs but is breaking in three new starters who are still proving themselves. It’s not a bad unit, but it’s not as sound as some are giving it credit for.

The passing game might improve, but it’s still very subpar. No one is afraid of Hank Brown, who is not only making his first career road start but also will attempt his first career road pass the first time he lets go of the football. He’s played in ten games, all at home.

Michigan’s defense is legit and looks better than anticipated, especially in the trenches and at linebacker. Utah transfer John Henry Daley (2.5 sacks) is healthy, and he’s joined by numerous young EDGE defenders making a mark, with Dom Nichols (questionable) the most productive (2 sacks). Just as important is the emergence of DTs Enow Etta and Trey Pierce, who have both taken a leap since last season. Same goes for linebacker Troy Bowles (25 tackles).

Add to that a secondary that was considered the team’s strength going into the season, and the Wolverines are fourth in EPA/drive and 11th in success rate. It’s a fast, physical, and suffocating unit.

The Hawkeyes have dropped 12 of their past 13 against ranked opponents. In those games, they’ve scored more than 16 points just four times: at USC last season and in three bowl games.