NCAAF · 1 year ago

College Football Week 9: Predicting the Outcomes of Every Big Ten Game

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

7:30 PM ET | No. 3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) @ Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1) | NBC
Spread: Penn State -6.5 (-115) | Total: 47.5

It’s been a tale of two months for Wisconsin. They struggled to beat Western Michigan (trailed 14-13 in the 4th quarter) and South Dakota (led 17-13 late in the third quarter) before getting their doors blown off by Alabama (42-10) and USC in the second half (28-0), when a 21-10 halftime lead became a 38-21 loss.

October has been much kinder. The Badgers are 3-0 this month to improve to 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten. They’ve scored 117 points (39 PPG!) and allowed 16 (5.3 PPG!). It might have helped that their opponents were Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern, a combined 1-8 in October and 2-10 in conference play.

That’s why putting too much stock into their recent run is hard.

The key will be how well Wisconsin’s offensive line holds up against PSU’s pass rushers. If they can keep Braedyn Locke (59.3%, 7.9 YPA, 7 TDs, 5 INTs) clean, the Badgers could have a fighting chance and control the clock. However, if Locke deals with pressure, there will be plenty of mistakes.

Score: Penn State 30, Wisconsin 13
(FRI) 11:00 PM ET | Rutgers (4-3, 1-3) @ USC (3-4, 1-4) | FOX
Spread: USC -14 (-105) | Total: 56.5 (all lines are from BetMGM)

Nothing says Big Ten Football like Rutgers playing in Southern California at 11:00 pm. ET on a Friday night! Both the Scarlet Knights and Trojans are riding three-game losing streaks after quick starts to the season. USC has led in the fourth quarter of all four of their losses, and when asked why his team couldn’t finish games, Lincoln Riley answered, “I don’t know.”

Following RU’s home loss to 1-5 UCLA—which put his team’s bowl hopes in peril—Greg Schiano took a different tact, "I know that there's going to be certain people that want to cast their ballot and say, oh, we've got big problems. You call your shot. Just remember, we will get there, I promise you. ... This program will be just fine."

This is Schiano’s fifth year back at Rutgers with (finally!) no Ohio State, Penn State, or Michigan on the schedule. The Scarlet Knights also don’t play Indiana, Oregon, or Iowa.

Not sure who’s answer is more concerning.

I’m not sure New Jersey’s state school has the offense to take advantage of USC’s defensive deficiencies, but the Trojans can take advantage of where Rutgers is vulnerable. Riley’s team has a balanced attack and can run the ball well, while RU is surprisingly ranked 121st in rushing success rate on defense. Banged up in the trenches, they’ve allowed 77 points in the past two weeks. The Men of Troy take care of business.

Score: USC 38, Rutgers 20
Noon ET | Nebraska (5-2, 2-2) @ No. 4 Ohio State (5-1, 2-1) | FOX
Spread: Ohio State -25.5 | Total: 48.5

The Cornhuskers are coming off a 56-7 loss at Indiana (Indiana!?!) and have to go to Columbus to take on an Ohio State team that also lost its last game and had an extra week to prepare. Sticking with our theme of coaches who sound lost, Matt Rhule said of his 49-point defeat in Bloomington, "I'll be honest with you guys—I didn't see this coming. I thought we were going to play great."

What does he see coming this week? Maybe Quinshon Judkins (4th national in EPA/rush) and TreVeyon Henderson (14th) running down their throat. Against Rutgers, Purdue, Colorado, UTEP, and Northern Iowa, the Huskers allowed 37 points (7.4 PPG). Against the best two offenses they’ve faced, they allowed 31 to Illinois (including OT) before giving up 56 to IU. Ohio State has the best offense and defense Nebraska will face all season, and a second-straight blowout is in the offing.

Score: Ohio State 45, Nebraska 10
Noon ET | Washington (4-3, 2-2) @ No. 13 Indiana (7-0, 4-0) | BTN
Spread: Indiana -6.5 | Total: 54.5

If we went back 20-30 years in a time machine, what would sound less likely than RU at USC in a Big Ten conference game? College GameDay is coming to Bloomington for a noon Big Ten Network game! What in the name of Bobby Knight’s ghost is happening?

Curt “google me” Cignetti, that’s what! Unlike Riley, Rhule, or Schiano, Cignetti is a positive, confident (borderline arrogant quote machine! All bravado—he is walking his talk. Hell, he’s sprinting it! The Hoosiers are undefeated after seven games and suddenly a legitimate playoff contender.

Hosting Washington might be the trickiest of their three games before IU takes on OSU. Especially considering the Hoosiers will be without quarterback Kurtis Rourke (74.6%, 10.7 YPP, 15 TDs-3 INTs), who has been nothing short of brilliant this season.

The analytics favor the Hoosiers but not by a ton: ninth in EPA margin to 19th, first in offensive success rate to eighth, and 15th in defensive success rate to 27th. If the Huskies can play blunder-free football—they’ve outgained every opponent this season by at least 65 yards—they might be a live dog.

Score: Indiana 27, Washington 24
3:30 p.m. ET | No. 20 Illinois (6-1, 3-1) @ No. 1 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) | CBS
Spread: Oregon -21.5 (-105) | Total: 54.5

Going into last week’s Michigan game, Bret Bielema said, “You don’t get ready for Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State in one week. You do it 365 days a year.” Most years, sure. Ohio State and Penn State, I’m with you. But not the 2024 Wolverines. Sub Oregon for Michigan for this season. The Illini had better hope that they’ve prepared for the Ducks for 365 days, or this Saturday will be their most significant blowout loss of the season.

Since a slow start—scares to Idaho and Boise State—Oregon has been humming along with margins of at least 21 points in four of their past five games and an upset of then-No. 2 Ohio State in the other game.

That’s the question. Will the Ducks win by more than 21 points?

The Illini haven’t been great defensively or rushing the football. Their passing offense has been pretty good, but against the best defenses they’ve faced—Penn State and Michigan—Illinois has 265 passing yards and 28 points (combined). Luke Altmyer is putting up career-high numbers across the board—65.9 percent, 8.3 YPA, 15 TD passes, and 15-1 TD-INT ratio—and to keep this one close, he’ll probably have to play the best game of his career.

Score: Oregon 38, Illinois 13
3:30 pm ET | Northwestern (3-4, 1-3) @ Iowa (4-3, 2-2) | CBS
Spread: Iowa -14.5 (-105) | Total: 37.5

Expect a low-scoring, slow-paced throwback B1G West game in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes scored 33 points against the Wildcats two years ago, but last year’s matchup was a 10-7 win for Iowa. Outside of the 2022 contest, the average margin in the previous six matchups (out of the past seven) was 16.5-9.8.

Both teams are coming off losses. Iowa has dropped two of its past three, and Northwestern three of its past four.

Phil Parker’s defense has been off this season. It’s hard to put a finger on what the issue is. But if an opponent on the schedule can get them back on track, it’s their old friend from the B1G West, the Wildcats. The ‘Cats have scored 13 points or less (in regulation) in three of their four losses. I still believe in the Hawkeyes’ defense, and their running game is the only reliable piece on either offense.

Score: Iowa 23, Northwestern 9
3:30 PM ET | Maryland (3-3, 1-3) @ Minnesota (4-3, 2-2) | FS1
Spread: Minnesota -4.5 (-105) | Total: 46.5

Maryland and Minnesota, Mike Locksley and P.J. Fleck are two of the most maligned Big Ten programs and coaches—often, deservedly.

The Gophers were written off when they were blown out at home by Iowa, 31-14, after leading 14-7 at halftime. Then something happened in the second half at Michigan, where they trailed 21-3 and nearly came back before they fell short, 27-24. The following week, Minnesota upset USC 24-17, and last week won at UCLA 21-17, one of the few Big Ten programs to travel multiple time zones and come out on top.

The Terps were written off when they were blown out at home by Northwestern, 37-10, as a double-digit favorite. Maryland dropped to 0-3 in the Big Ten before they upset USC 29-28. Do you sense a theme? Was it about the Trojans’ inability to perform on the road?

So, the question is, has either team, both, or neither turned it around? I’m not sold, but I trust the Gophers a little bit more.

Score: Minnesota 24, Maryland 17
7:30 PM ET | Michigan State (4-3, 2-2) @ Michigan (4-3, 2-2) | BTN
Spread: Michigan -4.5 (-115) | Total: 39.5

The Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy has long been the biggest game, make or break your season for the Spartans, while the Wolverines have been looking ahead toward bigger goals in recent years. Not this time around! The teams have identical records, and it feels like the Wolverines need it more this Saturday.

We’re all tired of talking about Michigan’s quarterback situation, right? It’s not just me?

Three key matchups will decide Saturday night’s tussle:

How does Michigan State’s offensive line hold up against Michigan’s uber-talented front four? How does Michigan’s secondary hold up against MSU’s talented receiving corps, especially true freshman and Detroit native Nick Marsh (24 receptions, 422 yards, 18.0 YPC)? Especially if they are without All-American cornerback Will Johnson. Which Aidan Chiles do we see? He has three games with multiple interceptions and two in the other four games combined.

Score: Michigan 23, Michigan State 13
7:30 PM ET | No. 3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) @ Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1) | NBC
Spread: Penn State -6.5 (-115) | Total: 47.5

It’s been a tale of two months for Wisconsin. They struggled to beat Western Michigan (trailed 14-13 in the 4th quarter) and South Dakota (led 17-13 late in the third quarter) before getting their doors blown off by Alabama (42-10) and USC in the second half (28-0), when a 21-10 halftime lead became a 38-21 loss.

October has been much kinder. The Badgers are 3-0 this month to improve to 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten. They’ve scored 117 points (39 PPG!) and allowed 16 (5.3 PPG!). It might have helped that their opponents were Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern, a combined 1-8 in October and 2-10 in conference play.

That’s why putting too much stock into their recent run is hard.

The key will be how well Wisconsin’s offensive line holds up against PSU’s pass rushers. If they can keep Braedyn Locke (59.3%, 7.9 YPA, 7 TDs, 5 INTs) clean, the Badgers could have a fighting chance and control the clock. However, if Locke deals with pressure, there will be plenty of mistakes.

Score: Penn State 30, Wisconsin 13
(FRI) 11:00 PM ET | Rutgers (4-3, 1-3) @ USC (3-4, 1-4) | FOX
Spread: USC -14 (-105) | Total: 56.5 (all lines are from BetMGM)

Nothing says Big Ten Football like Rutgers playing in Southern California at 11:00 pm. ET on a Friday night! Both the Scarlet Knights and Trojans are riding three-game losing streaks after quick starts to the season. USC has led in the fourth quarter of all four of their losses, and when asked why his team couldn’t finish games, Lincoln Riley answered, “I don’t know.”

Following RU’s home loss to 1-5 UCLA—which put his team’s bowl hopes in peril—Greg Schiano took a different tact, "I know that there's going to be certain people that want to cast their ballot and say, oh, we've got big problems. You call your shot. Just remember, we will get there, I promise you. ... This program will be just fine."

This is Schiano’s fifth year back at Rutgers with (finally!) no Ohio State, Penn State, or Michigan on the schedule. The Scarlet Knights also don’t play Indiana, Oregon, or Iowa.

Not sure who’s answer is more concerning.

I’m not sure New Jersey’s state school has the offense to take advantage of USC’s defensive deficiencies, but the Trojans can take advantage of where Rutgers is vulnerable. Riley’s team has a balanced attack and can run the ball well, while RU is surprisingly ranked 121st in rushing success rate on defense. Banged up in the trenches, they’ve allowed 77 points in the past two weeks. The Men of Troy take care of business.

Score: USC 38, Rutgers 20

College Football Week 9: Predicting the Outcomes of Every Big Ten Game

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