NCAAF · 1 year ago

Predicting Every Big Ten Game for Week 6 | College Football Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

7:30 PM ET | USC (3-1, 1-1) @ Minnesota (2-3, 0-2) | BTN
Spread: USC -8.5 | Total: 49.5

It’s take two for the Trojans on the road in Big Ten play. They were out-muscled by Michigan in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, and while Minnesota doesn’t quite have the elite talent at the top, they played the Wolverines tougher than expected a week ago and could do the same to USC this Saturday. The Gophers’ defense has been solid this season; they have a difference-making runner in Darius Taylor, a physical offensive line, and Max Brosmer showed last week that he can provide balance. A close game wouldn’t surprise me as USC looks ahead to Penn State the following week.

Score: USC 33, Minnesota 14
9:00 PM ET | Michigan State (3-2, 1-1) @ Oregon (4-0, 1-0) | FOX
Spread: Oregon -23.5 | Total: 52.5 (all lines are from BetMGM)

After making their Big Ten debut against UCLA, Oregon faces a traditional B1G team in Michigan State. Don’t expect the Spartans to provide any more resistance than the Bruins. Sparty limps in coming off a 38-7 loss to Ohio State. They’ve played well on the road—upset Maryland and nearly upset BC (23-19)—but the Ducks are a different bird. It’s hard to imagine an offense ranked 107th in points per drive, 100th in success rate, and 80th in EPA hanging with Oregon’s explosive attack. While frosh Aidan Chiles (56.3%, 5 TDs, 8 INTs) is still figuring things out, sixth-year senior Dillon Gabriel (81.5%, 9 TDs, 1 INT) has been giving a masterclass in efficiency. This is a pass for me, Oregon if I had to make a pick.

Score: Oregon 41, Michigan State 13
Noon ET | UCLA (1-3, 0-2) @ Penn State (4-0, 1-0) | FOX
Spread: Penn State -28.5 (-108) | Total: 46.5

This is the biggest mismatch of the week, and expect the Nittany Lions to romp all over the Bruins. Penn State’s defense is scary good, and their 3.8 yards per play allowed against Power 4 opponents is second only to Tennessee. UCLA has played three Power 4 opponents and is 0-3, and they’ve been outscored by 67 points in those games, the second-worst point differential in P4 vs. P4 matchups.

Score: Penn State 41, UCLA 3
Noon ET | Purdue (1-3, 0-1) @ Wisconsin (2-2, 0-1) | BTN
Spread: Wisconsin -13.5 | Total: 44.5

Who has the worst point differential in P4 vs. P4 matchups? Purdue has been outscored by 94 during their three-game losing streak. The metrics are even tougher on the Boilermakers, who rank outside the top 100 in net points/drive (106), offensive EPA (129), defensive EPA (128), and offensive success rate (120). If you’re on auto-bet fading Purdue, you won’t get any pushback from me. But backing the Badgers isn’t good for your health. Is Wisconsin better? Sure, but they’re 109th in net points/drive, 85th in offensive EPA, and 80th in defensive EPA. After beating Western Michigan and South Dakota (both were close late), Wisky has dropped the last two by 49 points.

Score: Wisconsin 27, Purdue 13
3:30 pm ET | Iowa (3-1, 1-0) @ Ohio State (4-0, 1-0) | CBS
Spread: Ohio State -19.5 (-105) | Total: 45.5

This is a bad matchup for Iowa, which has dropped its past seven against ranked teams, with a combined score of 235-44. Included in that stretch was a 55-10 loss to Ohio State in 2022, in which the Hawkeyes played some damn good defense (held OSU to 5.8 YPP). Even an improved Iowa offense will have too many three-and-outs with high turnover potential if and when they are forced to throw. The combination of short-field potential and too many plays on defense will force the damn to break even if Iowa plays well. That’s without noting that they’ve given up more big plays this season than in the past and have played no one nearly as explosive as the Buckeyes are.

Score: Ohio State 34, Iowa 6
3:30 PM ET | Indiana (5-0, 2-0) @ Northwestern (2-2, 0-1) | BTN
Spread: Indiana -13.5 (-115) | Total: 41.5

Indiana has been an absolute juggernaut on both sides of the ball through five games, while Northwestern’s offense has sputtered big time in their three games against Power 4 opponents. The ‘Cats can be feisty as an underdog, especially at home, but with high winds expected to come off the lake onto Northwestern’s beautiful on-campus stadium, it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats pulling off the upset. Look for this one to be a low-scoring affair.

Score: Indiana 23, Northwestern 9
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4:00 PM ET | Rutgers (4-0, 1-0) @ Nebraska (4-1, 1-1) | FS1
Spread: Nebraska -7 (-105) | Total: 40.5

The wind will be over 20 miles per hour in Lincoln on Saturday, significantly impacting how this game is played. I’m excited to watch Kyle Monangai going up against Nebraska’s staunch run defense. It will be a battle of wills, and if it comes down to the team that doesn’t make the big mistake or beat themselves on special teams, the Cornhuskers could be facing their second conference loss of the season.

Score: Rutgers 14, Nebraska 10
7:30 PM ET | Michigan (4-1, 2-0) @ Washington (3-2, 1-1) | Peacock
Spread: Washington -1.5 (-108) | Total: 41.5

There have been 18 games over the past 25 seasons in which a top-10 team is getting points against an unranked team on Week 6 or later. The unranked favorite is 11-7, which favors the Huskies. However, the ranked underdog is 13-5 ATS, which says the lean is toward the Wolverines. My lean is on Michigan, but how they’ve played in the second halves of games over the past three weeks scares me. At +3 or even +2.5, I’d be on the Maize & Blue, as this one feels like a toss-up game between talented teams who have played sloppy football.

Score: Michigan 20, Washington 17
7:30 PM ET | USC (3-1, 1-1) @ Minnesota (2-3, 0-2) | BTN
Spread: USC -8.5 | Total: 49.5

It’s take two for the Trojans on the road in Big Ten play. They were out-muscled by Michigan in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, and while Minnesota doesn’t quite have the elite talent at the top, they played the Wolverines tougher than expected a week ago and could do the same to USC this Saturday. The Gophers’ defense has been solid this season; they have a difference-making runner in Darius Taylor, a physical offensive line, and Max Brosmer showed last week that he can provide balance. A close game wouldn’t surprise me as USC looks ahead to Penn State the following week.

Score: USC 33, Minnesota 14
9:00 PM ET | Michigan State (3-2, 1-1) @ Oregon (4-0, 1-0) | FOX
Spread: Oregon -23.5 | Total: 52.5 (all lines are from BetMGM)

After making their Big Ten debut against UCLA, Oregon faces a traditional B1G team in Michigan State. Don’t expect the Spartans to provide any more resistance than the Bruins. Sparty limps in coming off a 38-7 loss to Ohio State. They’ve played well on the road—upset Maryland and nearly upset BC (23-19)—but the Ducks are a different bird. It’s hard to imagine an offense ranked 107th in points per drive, 100th in success rate, and 80th in EPA hanging with Oregon’s explosive attack. While frosh Aidan Chiles (56.3%, 5 TDs, 8 INTs) is still figuring things out, sixth-year senior Dillon Gabriel (81.5%, 9 TDs, 1 INT) has been giving a masterclass in efficiency. This is a pass for me, Oregon if I had to make a pick.

Score: Oregon 41, Michigan State 13

Predicting Every Big Ten Game for Week 6 | College Football Picks

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