NCAAF · 10 months ago

Predicting the Final College Football Playoff Rankings & CFP Bracket

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Fourth Team Out: South Carolina: 9-3
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 14 | Projected Final Ranking: 16

South Carolina, winner of their last six games, might be the hottest team in the SEC right now. They got screwed with a bad call which cost them against LSU and likely a spot in the CFP. However, for those who believe the Gamecocks are getting shafted by the committee, they did lose head-to-head to Alabama and Ole Miss. It’s a widely used tie-breaker and far from outrageous or brand favoritism.
1st Seed: Oregon Ducks: 13-0 (Big Ten Champ)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 1 | Projected Final Ranking: 1

Oregon left no doubt. The Ducks beat Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game to win the conference and enter the CFP as the lone undefeated FBS team. What else is left to say? Oregon is the undisputed No. 1 overall team and top seed in the first 12-team playoff.

National Championship Odds: +330
2nd Seed: Georgia Bulldogs: 11-2 (SEC Champ)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 5 | Projected Final Ranking: 2

Despite losing Carson Beck to injury on the first half’s final play and being out-gained by over 100 yards, Georgia found a way to knock off Texas in overtime to win the SEC Championship Game and secure a bye. It wasn’t the path many expected for the Bulldogs, but they ended up where predicted, atop the SEC.

National Championship Odds: +350
3rd Seed: Boise State: 12-1 (Mountain West Champ)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 10 | Projected Final Ranking: 9

Boise State took care of business with a 21-7 win over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game. Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty rumbled for 209 yards, including a 75-yard scoring scamper. How about a defense that kept the Rebels off the scoreboard for three quarters? Where would the Broncos be ranked if they beat Oregon (lost 37-34 on the road) in Week 2?

National Championship Odds: +5000
4th Seed: Arizona State Sun Devils: 11-2 (Big 12 Champs)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 15 | Projected Final Ranking: 10

Whether the committee moves Arizona State up to No. 10 or leaves them at No. 15, the Sun Devils’ impressive win in the Big 12 Championship Game (45-19) earned them a spot in the CFP. ASU opened the season as the 14th choice to win the Big 12 with +10000 odds. Cam Skattebo rushed for 170 yards (2 TDs), and Sam Leavitt connected on three TD passes. With SMU getting upset and ASU’s blowout win, the Big 12 champs get a bye.

National Championship Odds: +3500
5th Seed: Texas Longhorns: 11-2 (At-Large Bid)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 2 | Projected Final Ranking: 3

Regardless of where Texas is ranked—I don’t see them dropping far after losing to Georgia in overtime—they cannot get a top-four seed or a bye in the CFP. The committee doesn’t seem to care that the Longhorns haven’t beaten a currently ranked team. What exactly are their quality wins? Or can we only ask that about non-SEC teams? That’s a debate for another day. They were No. 2 in the penultimate rankings and will likely stay ahead of teams idle on Championship Week, which nets them the coveted No. 5 seed.

National Championship Odds: +450
6th Seed: Penn State Nittany Lions: 11-2 (At-Large Bid)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 3 | Projected Final Ranking: 4

Penn State hasn’t beaten anybody? I know. Nothing has changed since last week when the committee had the Nittany Lions ranked No. 3 ahead of Notre Dame and Ohio State, who spent Saturday at home watching, not playing football. I don’t believe PSU will get dinged heavily for losing a one-score game to the No. 1 overall team.

National Championship Odds: +1300
7th Seed: Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 11-1 (At-Large Bid)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 4 | Projected Final Ranking: 5

I can’t with Notre Dame cheerleaders who are touting four ranked wins. Stop it. Only Army is currently ranked. It’s too bad the Irish didn’t play Florida State in Week 2, or they could claim five ranked wins. That would be silly, wouldn’t it? Plus, ND lost to Northern Illinois! For all the talk of who has Texas, Penn State, and Indiana beaten…who has Notre Dame defeated? Anyone who believes they deserve a bye is telling on themselves. Frankly, they’re lucky to get a home game.

National Championship Odds: +700
8th Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes: 10-2 (At-Large Bid)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 6 | Projected Final Ranking: 6

As embarrassing as losing to Michigan as a 21-point favorite was, Ohio State has two wins over teams (Penn State and Indiana) that will make the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes also have the “best loss,” at Oregon by one point (32-31). OSU is worthy of hosting a first-round game, even if Ryan Day might prefer to get out of Columbus.

National Championship Odds: +400
9th Seed: Tennessee Volunteers: 10-2 (At-Large Bid)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 7 | Projected Final Ranking: 7

With just one win over a ranked opponent—24-17 vs. Alabama—and a loss to a 6-6 Arkansas team, it’s hard to make a case that Tennessee should be ranked higher than they are. The Vols deserve to be in the field but not to host a playoff game, as fun as it would be to see Rocky Top rock.

National Championship Odds: +2600
10th Seed: Indiana Hoosiers: 11-1 (At-Large Bid)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 9 | Projected Final Ranking: 8

The Hoosiers lack a singular impressive win, but winning 11 games is remarkable and shouldn’t be understated. Indiana didn’t just win 11 games; they won 10 by at least 14 points and seven by 24+ Points. They also didn’t get beat as severely by Ohio State as the score (or media) indicates. Arguably the most efficient team in the country, they are CFP-worthy.

National Championship Odds: +5000
11th Seed: SMU Mustangs: 11-2 (At-Large Bid)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 8 | Projected Final Ranking: 11

Had SMU not come back and lost this game by 17+ points, the Mustangs would be out. There’s no doubt about that. But by coming back, tying the game, and losing on the final play, I (and the sportsbooks) believe there’s a good chance SMU will give the ACC two bids. How are they ahead of Clemson? I don’t know. Why was PSU ahead of OSU? Because they have a better record despite the head-to-head loss.

National Championship Odds: +4000
12th Seed: Clemson Tigers: 10-3 (ACC Champs)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 17 | Projected Final Ranking: 13

Take a bow, Nolan Hauser! Undoubtedly, it was win, and you’re in, lose, and go home for Clemson. Hauser drilled a game-winning 56-yard field goal with time running out to send the Tigers into the CFP. Taking advantage of SMU’s mistakes, Clemson led 24-7 at the half and 31-14 going into the fourth quarter before they gave up 17 straight points, making things a little uneasy on the sideline. They might be 0-2 against the SEC, but the Tigers are ACC Champs for the eighth time in ten years.

National Championship Odds: +3000
First Team Out: Alabama Crimson Tide: 9-3
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 11 | Projected Final Ranking: 12

Brand bias? I’m OK with Alabama getting in on merit. They should be ahead of Miami and have a head-to-head win against South Carolina and a victory over SEC champ Georgia. Sure, they’re flawed, but no more so than any other bubble team. If the committee decides they don’t want to punish SMU for losing (close) in the ACC Championship Game, I’m also good with that. Don’t lose to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.

National Championship Odds: +4000
Second Team Out: Miami: 10-2
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 12 | Projected Final Ranking: 14

I have no problem with Alabama being ranked ahead of Miami. Anti-ACC bias? The Hurricanes have no wins over ranked teams—ranked at the time they played or now. The ‘Canes were also gifted a 39-38 victory over Cal and got a questionable review in their win over Virginia Tech (although I believe the latter was correct). I’d have The U ranked even lower than the committee.
Third Team Out: Ole Miss Rebels: 9-3
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 13 | Projected Final Ranking: 15

With blowout wins over South Carolina (27-3) and Georgia (28-10), Ole Miss has a legitimate case; however, as much as Lane Kiffin wants us to, we can’t ignore losses to Kentucky and Florida. Sure, they played the Gators at the wrong time, but the Wildcats finished 1-7 in the SEC. It’s hard to overcome that one.
Fourth Team Out: South Carolina: 9-3
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 14 | Projected Final Ranking: 16

South Carolina, winner of their last six games, might be the hottest team in the SEC right now. They got screwed with a bad call which cost them against LSU and likely a spot in the CFP. However, for those who believe the Gamecocks are getting shafted by the committee, they did lose head-to-head to Alabama and Ole Miss. It’s a widely used tie-breaker and far from outrageous or brand favoritism.
1st Seed: Oregon Ducks: 13-0 (Big Ten Champ)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 1 | Projected Final Ranking: 1

Oregon left no doubt. The Ducks beat Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game to win the conference and enter the CFP as the lone undefeated FBS team. What else is left to say? Oregon is the undisputed No. 1 overall team and top seed in the first 12-team playoff.

National Championship Odds: +330

Predicting the Final College Football Playoff Rankings & CFP Bracket

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