Big Ten CFP Picks: Oregon vs Texas Tech Prediction | Orange Bowl
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
The Oregon Ducks have been our only losers during bowl season when they failed to cover the spread against James Madison, but we’re not going to let that deter us. New year, new result!
Dan Lanning’s team has made it back to New Year’s Day and will play in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals for the second season in a row, this time hoping for different results. They are one of three Big Ten teams with championship hopes as the college football world turns the calendar to 2026 with the Orange Bowl.
Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!
Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks weekly!
Last Week: 1-0 (+1/2 UNIT) | This Week: 2-0 (+2 UNITS) | Overall: 52-48 (+4 UNITS)
Not So B1G Bets: 32-30 (+1 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 16-15 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 3-3 (EVEN) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
ATS Bets: 26-28 (EVEN) | Team Totals: 22-13 (+6.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 4-7 (-2.5 UNITS)
Where to Watch the Orange Bowl
- Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
- Location: Miami, FL
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Date: January 1, 2026
- Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas Tech Betting Odds
- Spread: Oregon -2.5 (-108)
- Total: Over 51.5 (-112) | Under (-108)
- Moneyline: Oregon -130 | Texas Tech +110
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas Tech Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Oregon 53% | Texas Tech 47%
- Spread: Oregon -2.5 Yes 51¢ | No 50¢
- Total: Over 52.5 Yes 48¢ | No 53¢
College Football Bowl Game Picks: B1G BETS (1 UNIT)
Oregon -2.5 Texas Tech (@DraftKings)
College Football Bowl Game Picks: NOT-SO-B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT)
Texas Tech UNDER 24.5 Team Total (-112 @FanDuel)
Maybe it’s my Big Ten bias, but I believe Oregon is the better team. They have the better coach and the better quarterback.
Texas Tech’s defense is good, very good, but they haven’t faced a team with the plethora of offensive weapons that the Ducks possess, starting with Dante Moore (3,046 yards, 72.4%, 9.0 YPA, 28 TDs), who could be the top pick in the NFL Draft come April. Moore is a physically gifted quarterback with an impressive arm and athleticism. Yes, he can make plays on his own, but for the most part, he plays within the offense and makes smart decisions with accuracy.
They spread the ball around, and Moore has proven he can win without his top targets, which we hope will not be the case on New Year’s Day. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq, another projected 2026 first-round pick, led the team with 42 receptions and eight receiving touchdowns. He’s an athletic freak who is a mismatch nightmare, backed up by Jamari Johnson (15 YPC), who would start for many teams, including some in the CFP.
If they’re healthy, Oregon has four starting-caliber receivers, something Malik Benson and Jeremiah McClellan have proven over the past four games without freshman phenom Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant. Benson and McClellan combined for 11 receptions for 202 yards and three touchdowns as they put up 51 points on James Madison. Reports out of Eugene are that Moore and Bryant should be good to go for this matchup.
The embarrassment of riches doesn’t end with the pass catchers, as Oregon has the deepest backfield in college football, with Noah Whittington (798 yards, 6.9 YPC, 6 TDs), Dierre Hill Jr. (557 yards, 8.6 YPC, 5 TDs), and Jordon Davison (625 yards, 6.4 YPC, 13 TDs) all worthy of being RB1. Whittington is the veteran who has remained fresh all season thanks to the immediate impact of their freshmen. Davison is as good as there is in short-yardage/goal-line situations, while Hill Jr. is among the most explosive runners in the playoffs.
Texas Tech’s D-line is elite, but Oregon has some horses upfront in what should be a great battle in the trenches.
When we flip to the other side of the ball, that’s where the Ducks might have the most significant edge. I’m not sold that the Red Raiders have the offensive line to match up with Oregon at the line of scrimmage.
Expect defensive tackles Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington to win upfront, which will allow their linebackers, led by the hard-hitting Bryce Boettcher (113 tackles), to clean up.
The Red Raiders are only 50th in rushing success rate and 47th in yards before contact. They rely too much on making defenders miss, which will not happen against the Ducks.
Edge rushers Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei are capable of getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and their secondary, led by top safety Dillon Thieneman, excels at limiting explosives and yards after the catch (fourth nationally).
Their one major weakness is defending designed QB runs, and Tech’s Behren Morton (-81 yards) isn’t going to beat you with his legs.
The Big 12 champs need explosives and will struggle putting together long drives. Even when they do get in the red zone, against the better defenses they’ve faced, it’s been a struggle, one touchdown in five red zone trips versus BYU.
Now the last impression left by Oregon’s defense isn’t a good one, as they allowed 28 second-half points to James Madison after building leads of 34-3 and 48-13, which defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi called “unacceptable.” Neither he nor Lanning was pleased with their defense.
“I think it’s another reminder of this is the best of the best, these teams. If you go to sleep for one down, one quarter, one half, they’re going to make you pay,” Lupoi said. “It makes it easier when the players see (themselves) not performing to the standard in that second half.”
You can bet they will play better on New Year’s Day. Before that second half against JMU, the Ducks allowed more than 24 points twice all season—to USC (27), one of the most explosive offenses in college football, and to No. 1 Indiana (30).
This will be a defense-leaning game, and Oregon has more answers on offense than Texas Tech.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
