Big Ten CFP Picks: Indiana vs Alabama Prediction | Rose Bowl
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
Imagine trying to convince someone 16 months ago that not only would the Indiana Hoosiers make their second straight College Football Playoff appearance but do so as Big Ten champs, the No. 1 seed, and be favored by a touchdown over the Alabama Crimson Tide.
That is college football in 2026. We were quick to adapt to laying big points with Curt Cignetti’s team against inferior opponents last season, and this year, IU proved they can also hang with the big boys with upset wins over fellow CFP quarterfinalists Oregon in Eugene and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Can they keep the train rolling against the Alabama Crimson Tide?
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Last Week: 1-0 (+1/2 UNIT) | This Week: 2-0 (+2 UNITS) | Overall: 52-48 (+4 UNITS)
Not So B1G Bets: 32-30 (+1 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 16-15 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 3-3 (EVEN) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
ATS Bets: 26-28 (EVEN) | Team Totals: 22-13 (+6.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 4-7 (-2.5 UNITS)
Where to Watch the Rose Bowl
- Stadium: Rose Bowl
- Location: Pasadena, CA
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Date: January 1, 2026
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
Rose Bowl: Indiana vs. Alabama Betting Odds
- Spread: Indiana -7 (-112)
- Total: Over 47.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
- Moneyline: Indiana -245 | Alabama +200
Rose Bowl: Indiana vs. Alabama Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Indiana 68% | Alabama 32%
- Spread: Indiana -7.5 Yes 48¢ | No 53¢
- Total: Over 48.5 Yes 50¢ | No 51¢
College Football Bowl Game Picks: B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS)
Indiana -7 Alabama (@DraftKings)
Surprise, surprise. I’m on the Big Ten champs against an overrated SEC team. Think I’m overstating things? A little nugget from the BBOC podcast, the last time the No. 1 team played a team ranked ninth or lower in a bowl game and was favored by less than a touchdown was 1962. Sure, the line has moved from 6.5 to 7 (7.5 at some books), but this spread should be double digits.
How is Alabama going to put up points against this Indiana defense?
The Crimson Tide is ranked just 72nd in rushing success rate. It’s a shockingly subpar run game, that’s ranked 96th in yards before contact, 121st in yards after contact, and 99th in missed tackle rate. Their top three rushers all average 4.0 YPC or less. Indiana’s defense is 29th or better in all three of those categories, including first in the nation in yards before contact. In addition, their defense comes into the Rose Bowl third in EPA/rush and fifth in success rate.
Now, if we’re assuming Alabama will have to go through the air to win this game, it puts a lot of pressure on their quarterback, offensive line, and receivers.
On the season, the Crimson Tide is ranked 48th in pressure rate and 120th in sack EPA. Over the past three games, Ty Simpson has been sacked ten times and pressured on over 40 percent of dropbacks.
If you’re thinking uh, oh, you’d be right. The Hoosiers are eighth in pressure rate and 12th in sack EPA. Even without Stephen Daley, it’s an absolute mismatch along the line of scrimmage in favor of IU.
Indiana has seven players with multiple sacks this season, which doesn’t include edge rusher Mikail Kamara (1 sack), who had 10 sacks in 2024. The defensive line has done the dirty work while blitzing linebackers Rolijah Hardy (8 sacks) and Isaiah Jones (8 sacks) get to the quarterback.
Alabama’s receiving corps isn’t bad by any stretch, but it’s also not elite like past seasons. What happened to Ryan Williams? IU’s secondary has shut down better and more explosive offenses this season, like Ohio State’s and Oregon. Corner D’Angelo Ponds has proven to be up to the challenge, and they will hit you with a wave of safeties who are always around the ball.
What I love most about the Indiana defense is its ability to create havoc while remaining disciplined.
Offensively, the Hoosiers are led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. He may not have the overall gaudy numbers, but he’s makes big plays (9.4 YPA & 33 TDs), is accurate (71.5 percent), doesn’t turn it over (6 INTs), and can beat you with his legs (6 rushing TDs).
Now he can occasionally get flustered under pressure, but will Bama put the heat on Mendoza? Their defense is 109th in pressure rate, while IU’s O-line finished 25th in pressure rate.
Also, when scrambling, he is very dangerous. Mendoza knows when to tuck it and run to move the chains, but also keeps his head up and eyes downfield (third in scramble EPA). The Tide have been vulnerable to scrambles and yards after the catch (66th).
It’s not just the passing attack where IU wins the battle at the line of scrimmage, as Alabama is shockingly (again) 70th in yards before contact allowed. Indiana’s backs aren’t in the make-you-miss mold, but Roman Hemby (918 yards, 5.2 YPC, 6 TDs) and Kaelon Black (799 yards, 5.6 YPC, 7 TDs) are north-south runners who will take whatever ground the defense gives up.
As if they needed it, the Hoosiers also get the edge in special teams, especially in the kicking game. There’s also rain in the forecast, which, if anything, should help IU.
Bottom line: Indiana is a legit No. 1 seed, while Alabama is a borderline playoff team, still fortunate to be here (Oklahoma gave that game away). Hoosiers win this one by double digits.
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