New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears Game Analysis: Betting Insights and Tips
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Week 7: New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears Betting Breakdown — Can New Orleans Keep It Close?
The Saints travel to Soldier Field this Sunday to take on the Bears in a matchup that looks tighter on paper than the spread suggests. The total sits at 46.5, and the Bears enter as moderate favorites — a line that has raised eyebrows across the betting community.
So what’s the deal here? You’ve got a Bears team riding high after a dominant win over Washington, and a Saints team that’s become the definition of scrappy but unreliable. Both squads have shown flashes, but neither has proven they can consistently finish. That’s why this line — hovering above the key number of three — demands a closer look.
The Saints: Competitive, But Costly
Let’s start with New Orleans. They’ve become one of the NFL’s most frustrating betting teams — always in games, but rarely rewarding those who back them.
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Against the Spread Woes: The Saints are 1-5 straight up and just 2-4 against the spread (ATS) heading into Week 7. That record looks even worse when you consider how close their games have been. They’ve lost to the Arizona Cardinals by seven, San Francisco 49ers by five, and New England Patriots by six — all as underdogs who nearly covered but didn’t.
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Scrappy but Short: They play hard, they hang around, but they can’t finish. The problem? Offensive inconsistency and a lack of identity. Spencer Rattler has looked serviceable at times, but this offense is still struggling to turn long drives into points.
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Fantasy Angle: The Saints’ passing game remains middling, with Chris Olave the only reliable fantasy option week-to-week. Alvin Kamara continues to grind for volume touches, but he’s not delivering big-play production. If you’re starting Kamara, you’re banking on usage rather than efficiency.
Key Trend: New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Their scrappiness doesn’t travel.
The Bears: Respect the Resurgence
Chicago, meanwhile, has earned this number — at least for now. After dismantling the Washington Commanders, the Chicago Bears are starting to show signs of an identity.
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Caleb Williams’ Growth: The rookie has settled down, completing over 68% of his passes the past two weeks and showing improved pocket awareness. His connection with DJ Moore is real — and it’s carrying this offense. Moore has three touchdowns in his last four games and remains a DFS staple.
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Balanced Offense: Chicago’s backfield has stabilized with D’Andre Swift finally stringing together productive weeks. The Bears have averaged 27.8 points per game over their last four, with their offensive line holding up well.
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Defensive Improvement: This group isn’t elite, but they’re getting stops. Chicago’s defense has allowed just 16.5 PPG in their last two wins and forced five turnovers in that span.
Fantasy Angle: Start DJ Moore with confidence, and keep Swift in your lineup. Williams is trending toward QB1 territory in favorable matchups.
Betting Market Breakdown
| Market | Line / Total | Lean | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears -3.5 | Saints +3.5 | The number feels inflated. The Saints’ defense keeps them in games, and this fits their one-score loss profile. |
| Total | 46.5 | Under 46.5 | Both defenses are improving, and Saints games have gone under in four of six this season. |
| Moneyline | Bears -190 / Saints +160 | Saints ML (sprinkle) | If Chicago reverts to early-season inconsistency, this becomes a field-goal game either way. |
| Anytime TD Props | DJ Moore (+110), Alvin Kamara (+125) | Moore’s volume is secure, Kamara’s red-zone usage keeps him viable. |
Betting Summary:
This is one of those classic “looks easy” games that rarely are. Chicago’s getting respect for beating Washington, but New Orleans has faced a far tougher schedule and still kept every game competitive. At +3.5, the Saints offer value in a matchup that profiles as a grinder.
Fantasy Focus & DFS Angle
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Must Starts: DJ Moore, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave
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DFS GPP Flier: Juwan Johnson — cheap salary, and Chicago has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
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Fade: Spencer Rattler passing overs (the Saints haven’t topped 250 passing yards in four straight).
DFS Stack to Consider: Caleb Williams + DJ Moore + Kamara (bring-back) — a correlated game script if this unexpectedly turns into a shootout.
Final Prediction: Saints Stay Close, Bears Escape
The Saints continue to be everyone’s favorite “they almost covered” team — and Week 7 may be no different. Chicago’s offense is trending up, but the Saints’ defense will make them earn every yard. The Bears likely escape with another home win, but New Orleans covers.
Final Score Prediction:
Bears 24, Saints 21
The under hits, the Saints cover, and bettors who took the points — or Kamara’s TD prop — leave with something to show for it.
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