NFL Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Week 16

NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. The holidays are here, and incidentally, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 16!

Where to Watch Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys

• Stadium: AT&T Stadium
• Location: Arlington, TX
• Where to Watch: FOX
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds

• Spread: LAC +2.5 (-112) | DAL -2.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 49.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
• Moneyline: LAC +108 | DAL -126

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys Kalshi Odds

• Chance: LAC 47% | DAL 55%
• Spread: DAL -2.5 Yes (46¢) | No (54¢)
• Total: Over 48.5 Yes (56¢) | No (44¢)

The Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) are visiting the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) this Sunday, and transparently, both sides need this game in a significant way. The Cowboys are technically not eliminated from postseason contention yet. Meanwhile, the Bolts are playing for playoff seeding within a tight AFC conference.

The Cowboys built considerable steam through November. However, back-to-back losses to fellow NFC foes have left Dallas in the dungeon. To reach the postseason, they will need to win out, and the Philadelphia Eagles must lose all three remaining games. To quote Lloyd Christmas from Dumb & Dumber, “So you’re saying there’s a chance." Well, FanDuel Sportsbook gives Dallas 40-to-1 odds to do precisely that (which carries a 2.4% implied probability).

With the urgency percolating in “Big D," the Chargers will need to take care of their own business. Los Angeles has performed consistently as of late, earning them the AFC’s five-seed at this point. The Chargers’ defense is currently ranked second in total yards allowed (279.1 YPG) and ninth in scoring (20.3 PPG). Naturally, this has them listed within SportsGrid’s top-ten defensive units.

There’s no denying—Dak Prescott (72.8 QBR) and the Cowboys’ offense are having a prolific campaign. Dallas has scored 29.1 PPG through 14 contests, which is a top-five clip. However, Dallas has one of the worst defenses in football, especially in the secondary. The Boys have been scorched for 254.8 YPG through the air, which lands dead-last in the NFL.

According to NFL.com’s latest power rankings, the Chargers are 11th, while Dallas is 19th. I concur with this sentiment, as Los Angeles is the more complete team. I expect Justin Herbert (58.2 QBR) and others to lead the Bolts to victory at Jerry World, so I will gladly take the LAC straight up for a plus-money price.

Best Bet: Chargers ML (+108)

Where to Watch New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium
• Location: Baltimore, MD
• Where to Watch: NBC/Peacock
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds

• Spread: NE +2.5 (+100) | BAL -2.5 (-122)
• Total: Over 47.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
• Moneyline: NE +130 | BAL -154

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Kalshi Odds

• Chance: NE 43% | BAL 59%
• Spread: BAL -2.5 Yes (53¢) | No (47¢)
• Total: Over 47.5 Yes (54¢) | No (46¢)

Out at “The Bank," we’ll see a pivotal AFC affair between the New England Patriots (11-3) and Baltimore Ravens (7-7). Keep in mind: there is a fair chance that we will see this same matchup on Wild Card Weekend.

The Patriots have been one of the most pleasant surprises of 2025. As it is now, they are teetering between winning the AFC East (-340 odds on FanDuel) and qualifying for the playoffs as a wild-card team. Conversely, the Ravens’ only shot at the postseason runs through the AFC North. Baltimore is now listed at +110 to win its division, but those numbers will move drastically depending on Sunday night’s outcome.

Compared to the Ravens, the Pats are a better team in almost every measurable category. New England is ranked seventh in scoring (27.3 PPG) and sixth in total yardage (364.2 YPG). Baltimore does not come close in either category. On defense, the Patriots are slotted seventh in both points allowed (19.7 PPG) and yardage against (300.1 YPG). Once again, the Ravens are not close in these metrics. That’s why Baltimore is present on SportsGrid’s most recent list of overrated teams.

So, Baltimore will be at home while operating with more desperation. Be that as it may, I prefer the Patriots in this spot. It will be cold, but expect clear skies this Sunday evening in Maryland. FanDuel currently has the Pats +2.5 at even money, so I am taking the points. New England has gone 8-5-1 (61.5%) ATS this year. Across the way, the Flock is 5-9 (35.7%) ATS, which is tied for the worst cover rate in the NFL.

Best Bet: Patriots +2.5 (+100)

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily NFL Game Picks and NFL Prop Picks.

NFL Best Bets: Week 16 Top Picks

• Chargers ML (+108)
• Patriots +2.5 (+100)

Week 16 brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the gridiron. Best of luck!

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