NFL MVP Top 11 Player Power Rankings Going Into Week 18
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
The NFL MVP race has been anything but static this season, with shifting odds, late-season surges, and a crowded field of quarterbacks making their case. As Week 18 approaches, the picture is finally coming into focus.
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11) WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +15000 –> This Week’s Odds: +50000
10) QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +15000 –> This Week’s Odds: +50000
Playing with a broken non-throwing hand since Week 13, Justin Herbert certainly deserves my pretend Toughest QB of the Year award, but MVP is not going to happen. Herbert’s season will end with 3,727 passing yards, 28 total TDs, 13 picks, and almost 500 yards on the ground. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has already decided to sit LA’s MVP in hopes that a week of rest and healing brings an even more valuable Herbert back for the first round of the playoffs.
Week 18 Opponent: at Denver Broncos
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +40000 –> This Week’s Odds: +40000
9) QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
The reigning Super Bowl MVP and the Philadelphia Eagles offense have had their share of highs and lows this season. Jalen Hurts has ramped up his rushing attack during Philly’s current three-game win streak, showing flashes of his postseason form. That said, the passing game was invisible on a rainy day in Buffalo on Sunday.
Unless the Eagles catch fire and capture back-to-back Super Bowl titles, Hurts’ MVP chances are all but gone for this year.
Week 18 Opponent: vs Washington Commanders
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +40000 –> This Week’s Odds: +40000
8) QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
The Houston Texans could be the dark horse nobody wants to face in the postseason, and it’s not just because of CJ Stroud. Houston boasts a well-rounded offense and the league’s top defense, with key players returning to full strength at the right time. Still, Stroud’s MVP stock takes a hit due to his three-game absence—availability is always a major factor in award conversations.
Week 18 Opponent: vs Indianapolis Colts
7) QB Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +10000 –> This Week’s Odds: +40000
Sam Darnold has undergone a remarkable transformation since his days with the New York Jets, leading all NFL quarterbacks with 27 wins over the past two seasons. Statistically, he’s been productive, ranking fifth in the league with 3,850 passing yards and throwing 25 touchdowns. However, turnovers have been an issue—his 14 interceptions are the third-most this year. While Darnold won’t be the MVP, his growth and impact as a leader are clear, as evidenced by Seattle’s opportunity to be the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday.
Week 18 Opponent: at San Francisco 49ers
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +15000 –> This Week’s Odds: +40000
6) QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Bo Nix has outpaced expectations through his first two seasons, but it’s still unclear if he’s the kind of quarterback who can shoulder a team to victory by himself. The Denver Broncos’ young QB has displayed plenty of grit and determination, stepping up when it counts. The question remains: Does he possess the elite skill set needed to join the NFL’s top tier? Perhaps in Year 3, Nix makes that leap forward to be a legit MVP contender.
Week 18 Opponent: vs Los Angeles Chargers
5) QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +10000 –> This Week’s Odds: +30000
Caleb Williams has validated the Chicago Bears’ decision to take him first overall in 2024. He currently sits eighth in the NFL with 3,730 passing yards and is tied for seventh with 25 touchdown passes, all while limiting mistakes to just six interceptions on the year. Though his numbers aren’t a dramatic leap from his rookie season, Williams’ late-game composure, knack for comeback victories, and ability to keep Chicago competitive every week mark real progress. Performances like these point to a likely MVP campaign in his future, potentially as soon as 2026 and beyond.
Week 18 Opponent: vs Detroit Lions
4) QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +2500 –> This Week’s Odds: +30000
It’s hard to believe Josh Allen has fallen so far, so quickly. At +600 just two weeks ago, the Bills pivot ran into a game Cleveland Browns defense in Week 16, which held him to just 130 passing yards, 17 rushing, and zero scores. Blame Week 17 on the rain if you want, but a 13-12 home loss to a Philadelphia Eagles team that had zero passing yards in the second half further hurt his MVP campaign. Allen was good considering the elements, passing for 272 while cashing twice on the ground.
Now, a foot injury may hold the reigning NFL MVP out for the season finale. Buffalo will likely start the playoffs on the road regardless, as they need a whole lotta help to open the postseason at home.
Week 18 Opponent: vs New York Jets
3) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +5000 –> This Week’s Odds: +22500
The Jacksonville Jaguars keep stacking wins, and Trevor Lawrence continues to show why he was the consensus top pick in 2021. Jacksonville notched its seventh consecutive victory with a comeback against the Indianapolis Colts, as Lawrence threw for 263 yards and tacked on two rushing touchdowns—though he did have one interception. The former Clemson standout’s MVP odds have surged from +30000 three weeks ago to +10000, then +5000, and now to the number above. This shift owes more to the rise of our top two MVP candidates than to any shortcomings on Lawrence’s part.
Week 18 Opponent: vs Tennessee Titans
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: -195 –> This Week’s Odds: +280
2) QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
What looked like a lock three weeks ago is anything but for Matthew Stafford. The former Detroit Lions pivot can hardly be blamed for the Los Angeles Rams ‘ wild overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16. Stafford exploded for 457 passing yards, three TDs, and an 88.2 QBR, despite the crucial defeat. However, MNF’s shocking upset loss to the Atlanta Falcons is another story. Stafford tossed a season-worst three picks after coming into Monday’s game with five all season. Once looking like the NFC’s top seed, LA could finish as low as sixth heading into the postseason.
This race is certainly not over, with many sportswriters likely leaning toward the 37-year-old, because it could be Stafford’s last chance to win his first MVP. In his way is a second-year pivot (our next slide), looking every part a poised veteran, coming off another huge game.
Week 18 Opponent: vs Arizona Cardinals
1) QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +170 –> This Week’s Odds: -340
Drake Maye halved his odds for the second straight week after taking apart the hapless New York Jets. The former North Carolina Tar Heel threw for a season-high five touchdowns in the 42-10 beatdown. Now, Maye finds himself in the driver’s seat, finally usurping Stafford on the odds board.
The Pats already clinched the AFC East and are still in contention for the No. 1 seed, matching the Denver Broncos’ 13-3 record. New England’s on the wrong side of the tiebreak and will need some help, but pushing the Pats to these heights following a four-win campaign is something no one had on their dance card.
Week 18 Opponent: vs Miami Dolphins
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My Pick: Drake Maye
After weighing the whole body of work, team impact, and late-season performance, my MVP pick is Drake Maye. He separated from the pack when it mattered most and now stands as the clear choice to take home the award. Maye has done as much, if not more, than Matthew Stafford with much less dangerous weapons, turning around a team that has not been a contender since Tom Brady left. Sure, Stafford has had a tougher schedule in the meat grinder that is the NFC West, while playing strong teams after the Rams finished 10-7 and won the division last year. The value isn’t there, but this is how the race ends.
