NFL Super Bowl Predictions: Patriots vs Seahawks Best Longshot Bets

Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots Kalshi Odds

• Chance: SEA 67% | NE 33%
• Spread: SEA -4.5 Yes 52¢ | No 49¢
• Total: Over 45.5 Yes 50¢ | No 51¢

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

We’re starting with a familiar market. One that arguably presents the most profitable, if not the most volatile, positions ahead of kick-off. That’s right, we’re tackling the first touchdown scorer in Sunday’s clash between the Pats and Seahawks. Whoever gets the ball first has the chance to execute their game plan. We’re betting New England receives the kick and marches down the field for a tuddy. Drake Maye will look to one of his most reliable targets, Hunter Henry. 

 As with most young quarterbacks, the tight end has been Maye’s safety blanket all season. Henry ranks second on the team in most passing categories except for two notable categories, touchdowns and red zone targets. His 87 targets account for a 17.7% target share, while his 60 receptions and 768 receiving yards are second on the team by a wide margin. More relevantly, Henry’s seven touchdowns set the standard in New England and represent 22.6% of Maye’s scoring throws this season. 

From an analytics perspective, Henry is primed for progression. Despite his sterling metrics, the veteran tight end has had a relatively quiet postseason. Through two games, Henry has absorbed five targets, hauling in three of those passes for just 17 yards. Surely, doubt will creep into bettors’ minds, but from a numbers perspective, Henry is due for a bounce-back effort. His 5.1 targets per game account for his entire playoff production, while he hasn’t come close to matching his 45.2 yards per game. It’s unlikely those stats remain depressed in the Super Bowl, and we’re betting Henry shows up in a big way.

The cherry on top is Henry’s red zone presence. The Patriots’ tight end ranks sixth in the NFL with 22 targets, out-pacing the next closest pass-catcher, Stefon Diggs, by 10. Chunk plays won’t come easily against this stout Seahawks’ defense. Henry will be counted on to get yards on short-to-intermediate routes. The coward’s way out is taking the over on his receiving props or as an anytime touchdown scorer. It’s the time of year to go big, and we’re backing Henry as the first touchdown scorer.

Best Bet: Hunter Henry First Touchdown Scorer +1600

We’re dipping our toes in another familiar pool, this time seeking value in the Super Bowl MVP market. Not surprisingly, you’ll find Sam Darnold (+115) and Drake Maye (+230) at the front of the pack. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the next closest option, currently priced at +550. But the gap widens substantially beyond that elite trio. If this is the defensive slugfest everyone expects, we could see a defensive player take home the honor for the first time since Von Miller in 2015. Infer what you will from our selection, but we’re backing Marcus Jones as the Super Bowl LX MVP. 

Jones has been on an unstoppable mission in the playoffs. Through two games, the Pats’ cornerback has eight tackles, three pass deflections, and an interception returned for a touchdown. When we look further back, you’ll see that Jones has been the disruptive presence in the Patriots’ backfield since the start of the season. 

In 17 regular-season games, Jones has tallied 65 tackles, 2.0 sacks, three interceptions, and 11 passes defensed. He’s also Johnny on the spot, recovering three fumbles and recording another defensive score. 

You can’t evaluate Smith-Njigba as a potential Super Bowl MVP without considering Jones. The Patriots will trot Jones out in nickel coverage, and could also task him with trying to shut JSN down in man-on-man coverage. If Smith-Njibga is held in check, Jones will be a big reason why.

While everyone is watching Smith-Njigba as a potential Super Bowl MVP at Levi’s Stadium, they could inadvertently be following the man who will eventually take home the award. At +10000, we’re selling out for Jones.

Best Bet: Marcus Jones Super Bowl MVP +10000

No more inferences. We’re taking a stand. Money is flooding in on the Seahawks to claim this year’s Super Bowl. The line continues to shift in their direction, driven by increasing ticket count and handle. We believe in Mike Vrabel, and we trust him to have the Pats ready to march in Santa Clara. Preparation and narrative notwithstanding, our analysis supports that New England is poised for a massive upset on Sunday. 

Seattle’s defense has been spectacular, but its offense isn’t nearly as good. If not for JSN, the Seahawks would have virtually no passing production. Darnold has been held to 181 passing yards or fewer in three of his last four, totaling 733 yards across that sample. Smith-Njigba has accounted for nearly half of that, churning out 328 receiving yards. If he’s neutralized, that leaves Seattle in a precarious position. 

Moreover, the Seahawks’ scoring efficiency is entirely out of whack. Despite averaging just 331.5 yards per game over their last four, the NFC Champs have seen an increase in scoring, totaling 112 points over that stretch, with 72 of those points coming in two postseason games. It’s an unsustainable balance on the verge of collapse in the most significant moment of the year.

That leads us to our longshot play of the year. We’re taking a flyer on the correct score, betting that the Patriots walk it off with a last-second field goal, besting the Seahawks 23-21 in Super Bowl LX.

Best Bet: Correct Score Patriots 23 – Seahawks 21 +22500

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NFL Super Bowl Predictions: Patriots vs Seahawks Best Longshot Bets

• Hunter Henry First Touchdown Scorer +1600
• Marcus Jones Super Bowl MVP +10000
• Correct Score: Patriots 23 – Seahawks 21

This is for all the marbles. We’ve got our three favorite longshot plays locked and loaded for Super Bowl LX. Give us Hunter Henry as the first touchdown scorer, Marcus Jones as Super Bowl MVP, and the game to finish Patriots 23 – Seahawks 21.

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