NFL Week 9 Predictions | Sunday Picks Today, Best Bets

Bettors are salivating over the Week 9 NFL lines. There are a lot of spreads hanging around key numbers and teams that are conspicuously favored under questionable circumstances. As always, there is no shortage of entry points for bettors looking to get in on the action.

We’ve got you covered for betting purposes, highlighting our favorite wagers for this week’s NFL action.

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

Spread: Patriots +3.5 (-110) | Titans -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Patriots +150 | Titans -178
Total: OVER 38.5 (-105) | UNDER 45.5 (-115)

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Granted, this isn’t the most glamorous matchup, but there’s plenty to like about the Tennessee Titans as -3.5 chalk over the New England Patriots. The Titans look like a new team with Mason Rudolph under center and it’s time their defense gets the respect it deserves. 

Sure, Tennessee only has one win on the season and has an equally disappointing 1-6 record against the spread. Still, we’re seeing green sprouts in their underlying metrics. Last week, the Titans put up the most yards of their season, accumulating 416 yards, but that translated to just 14 points on the road. Fewer turnovers and increased scoring efficiency are expected at home. Further, the Titans defense has always been up to the task. They allow the fewest yards in the NFL and should see a sharp decrease in their scoring defense metrics in the immediate future. 

Somehow, the Pats escaped last week’s matchup against the New York Jets with the win. New England was outgained by nearly 100 yards and posted -2.0 net yards per play compared to the visitors. Moreover, they rank as one of the worst defensive teams in every category, ensuring the Titans’ recent uptick continues into Week 9. 

Good things are coming the Titans’ way, and that starts with Sunday’s showdown versus New England. We’re using this spot to back Tennessee as -3.5 home favorites.

Recommended Play: Titans -3.5 (-110)

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New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Spread: Saints -7.5 (-104) | Panthers +7.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Saints -350 | Panthers +280
Total: OVER 43.5 (-110) | UNDER 43.5 (-110)

The return of Derek Carr has precipitated a lot of movement on the New Orleans Saints betting line versus the Carolina Panthers. After opening as -6.5 chalk, the Saints were quickly moved up to -7.5 on news of Carr’s return. While it remains to be seen whether they are deserving of the hefty spread, we are anticipating a sharp increase in offensive efficiency with Carr back under center. 

The Saints couldn’t get anything going without the former Pro Bowl quarterback. New Orleans was held to a total of 45 points over the past three weeks, with most of those coming back in Week 6 after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had already put the game out of reach. Undoubtedly, that ineffectiveness was a factor in this total being set in the low 40s. However, scoring efficiency will improve with Carr operating the offense. 

We also have to consider these teams’ complete lack of defensive stability. New Orleans gives up more yards per game than any other team in the NFL. Not surprisingly, they also have the eighth-worst scoring defense. Carolina is in a similar boat, allowing the most points and fifth-most yards per game. 

The Panthers and Saints have playmakers who will run rampant on Sunday; however, neither possesses the defensive faculties to limit their opponent. Consequently, we’re betting this one sails over the total.

Recommended Play: Over 43.5 (-110)

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Jaguars +7.5 (-122) | Eagles -7.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Jaguars +270 | Eagles -335
Total: OVER 45.5 (-118) | UNDER 40.5 (-104)

This is one of those key betting lines alluded to earlier. The Philadelphia Eagles enter Sunday’s inter-conference tilt versus the Jacksonville Jaguars as -7.5 chalk. However, sportsbooks appear apprehensive about bumping this line down, instead increasing the price of the Jags. Count us among the minority. We think the Eagles take care of business at home. 

Over its past couple of games, Jacksonville has shown life. The Jags have eclipsed 27 points in both outings, but their increased scoring is unsubstantiated by their offensive production. They are right on their season-long average in terms of yards per game, but they’ve seen an eight-point jump in terms of scoring. Regression is inevitable, and we expect that to hit hard against the Eagles. 

Philadelphia was heavily criticized earlier in the season, but the Eagles have turned a corner with their recent efforts. The NFC East contenders are riding a three-game winning streak into Week 10, maximizing productivity on both sides of the ball. Across that small sample, the Eagles are up to 28.3 points and 369.3 yards per game, representing modest and sustainable gains. However, the more pronounced jumps are seen in their defensive metrics. Philadelphia has held its past three opponents to an average of 214.3 yards and 12.0 points per game. 

The Eagles are flying high right now, and their success is grounded in solid metrics. Conversely, the Jaguars appear to be on the verge of yet another collapse. Their output doesn’t match production and we should see a quick and unforgiving correction. On that basis, we’re laying the plus-money points with the Eagles in this one.

Recommended Play: Eagles -7.5 (+100)

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Spread: Commanders -3.5 (-115) | Giants +3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Commanders -198 | Giants +166
Total: OVER 44.5 (-110) | UNDER 44.5 (-110)

An injury to Jayden Daniels has tempered expectations for the Washington Commanders. But even with a semi-hurt quarterback, the Commanders are far more superior to the New York Giants than the betting line implies. As such, we see a decided advantage in backing Washington as -3.5 road chalk. 

After getting injured on the opening drive in Week 7, Daniels returned to the Commanders lineup last time out. The infamous Hail Mary, with time expired, salvaged the outcome, but the boxscore reveals a more telling picture than the score does. Even without the 52-yard completion to end the game, Washington had outgained the Chicago Bears by a significant margin. When the dust settled, the Commanders put up 481 yards of total offense on 6.7 yards per play. Relative to season-long benchmarks, that’s a notable increase in production with a substantive decrease in output. More simply, we would have expected more points for the amount of offense the Commanders generated. 

Thankfully, Washington can get back on the right track against the Giants. New York is terrible at defending the run. The NFC East basement dwellers give up an average of 141.8 rushing yards per game, ranking sixth-worst in the NFL. Further, their offense has been abysmal at moving the ball with any frequency. The Giants sit in the bottom third of the league in virtually every offensive category. 

At face value, this line infers that Daniels might not play on Sunday. But even at less than 100%, we expect the Commanders to move the ball with ease against the Giants. Without the offensive playmakers to keep pace, New York won’t be able to keep this one close.

Recommended Play: Commanders -3.5 (-115)

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