Sunday Night Football: Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay

The AFC playoff picture is getting crowded. As is the case in any NFL season, it’s just a matter of time before the herd starts to thin. The loser of tonight’s Sunday Night Football showdown between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs will likely end up being one of the unfortunate postseason casualties. Both teams are sitting outside of the seven-team field, and desperately need a win to stay alive.

We’re breaking down all the action with our favorite Same Game Parlay picks in this Sunday Night Football showdown!

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Where to Watch Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders

Stadium: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, MO
Where to Watch: NBC
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Spread: KC -3.5 | Total: 42.5
Kalshi Moneyline: KC 64% | HOU 34%

Leg 1: Texans +3.5

Kansas City’s unsustainable luck has run out in 2025, and we’re not anticipating a reversal of fortune before the end of the campaign. After running roughshod on the NFL in one-score games in 2024, the Chiefs have fallen to 1-6 this season. They may be able to fend off the Texans’ offense, but we don’t expect them to gain much ground against Houston’s imposing defense.

The Chiefs’ offense is stagnant. Despite ranking fifth in total offense this season, the reigning AFC Champs have fallen below 365 yards in three of their last four. Across that stretch, they are putting up a below-average 368.8 yards per game, translating that mediocre production to just 22.8 points per game. At the same time, we’ve seen deteriorating defensive metrics, with KC getting torched for 457 yards in its last outing. Altogether, they’ve out-gained just one opponent over the four-game stretch, pointing toward their inevitable collapse.

Houston isn’t a team that blows opponents out of the water. Still, few teams have achieved much success in moving the ball against them. The Texans rank first in total and scoring defense, looking equally competent against the pass and rush. So far this year, opponents are mustering a paltry 174.0 passing and 91.7 rushing yards per game.

Winners of four of their last five, the Texans have knocked off the likes of the 49ers, Bills, and Colts. Now playing their third road game in four weeks, they could be hard-pressed to extend that streak. Nevertheless, we think they will hang tough against a Chiefs team that has looked beatable in every game this season. We’re taking the points in this one.

Leg 2: C.J. Stroud to Throw for 275+ Passing Yards +235

Part of the Texans’ offensive woes stems from their ineffective run game. Ranking 23rd in rush yards per game, Houston has been forced to throw the ball more frequently to stay in games. Thankfully, C.J. Stroud has responded with some of his best efforts of the season as it progresses. We’re betting that trend continues into Week 14.

Stroud has been asked to put the Texans on his back, and he’s responded accordingly. The third-year pro has thrown for 276 or more yards in two of his last three, albeit interrupted by his brief injury absence at the start of November. The Texans’ quarterback returned to the lineup in Week 13, completing 22 of his 35 pass attempts for 276 yards. Not including his departure from the Week 9 loss to Denver, Stroud has made at least 35 passing attempts in three straight. Moreover, he’s averaged 39.7 throws per game across that sample.

From a game script perspective, Stroud should be called upon to continue his throwing assault. If the Chiefs play with the lead as anticipated, Houston will be forced to unleash its passing attack to stay close. With a plethora of top pass-catchers at his disposal, Stround can be counted on to poke holes in Kansas City’s defense from start to finish.

The Texans need Stroud to work efficiently to stay competitive. Against a Chiefs’ defense that has allowed 283 or more passing yards in two of three, he can be counted on to maintain his current form and reach at least 275 passing yards at Arrowhead Stadium.

Leg 3: Nico Collins to Record 80+ Receiving Yards +126

Inarguably, Nico Collins is one of the most underappreciated receivers in the NFL. The former third-round pick has eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau in two straight seasons and is well on his way to making it three straight in 2025. His Sunday Night Football tally in Week 14 will go a long way to helping him reach that elite level.

Collins is the premier receiving option in the Texans’ offense. He leads the team in targets and yards, falling two receptions short of Dalton Schultz for the team lead in that category. Further, he’s elevated his play with his most recent performances. Over the last four games, Collins has recorded 92 or more yards in all but one of those contests. Additionally, he’s been targeted 38 times across that sample, including three games with at least 10 targets.

The Chiefs’ secondary has been unable to contain elite wideouts this season. CeeDee Lamb is coming off a 100-yard performance, becoming the fifth pass-catcher in four games to surpass 80 yards versus KC. Collins is poised to continue that unflattering trend. We’re betting he reaches at least 80 receiving yards on Sunday Night Football.