NHL · 3 hours ago

5 Most Overrated Teams in the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Grant White

Host · Writer

Buffalo Sabres
Stanley Cup Odds: +1200

A monumental come-from-behind victory in Game 1 over the Bruins has propelled the Buffalo Sabres up the Stanley Cup futures board. But that doesn't offset their shortcomings or make them a true contender.

Coming off their first division title in nearly two decades, expectations are sky high for the Sabres. Still, this is a team that ranked in the bottom half of the league in expected goals-for rating and spends more time chasing the puck than creating chances. Kudos to Buffalo for undoing years of underachieving in a four-month span, but this still isn't a team that can hang with the elite analytics clubs.

One of the Sabres or Bruins will continue their postseason journey beyond the first round. Gambling prices will shift to reflect changing expectations, but neither team has a chance of competing with the conference's top teams.
Colorado Avalanche
Stanley Cup Odds: +270

The Colorado Avalanche enter the Presidents' Trophy winners and Stanley Cup favorites. Still, their metrics are unsustainable, and the betting line is overinflated, making the Avs one of the most overrated teams at the outset of the playoffs.

The Avalanche got off to a terrific start this season, but has seen its metrics deteriorate over the latter stages of the campaign. Altogether, they have overachieved relative to their expected goals-for rating, elevating their PDO beyond sustainable measures.

The betting public never shies away from backing an overachieving team, and that's the case with Colorado. The Central Division champions enter the postseason as prohibitive Stanley Cup favorites, with their implied probability exceeding their actual chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Mug. All of this on the overlay of a team that has made it out of the second round just once since 2002.

It's a tough pill to swallow, but the heavily-favored Avalanche are overrated.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Stanley Cup Odds: +700

A playoff-opening loss to the Montreal Canadiens has dampened the Tampa Bay Lightning's outlook. Truthfully, it was an expected outcome for a team that has imploded at the wrong time of year.

The Bolts struggled down the stretch. Despite being in the running for the Atlantic Division crown, Tampa Bay couldn't get out of its own way. They were outplayed in four of their last seven, watching their offensive metrics erode every step of the way. More concerning, opponents have had greater success in the Lightning's defensive zone, compounding their declining production.

What we saw in Game 1 could be a common theme throughout their first-round series versus the Habs. While the betting market is still high on Tampa Bay, it's wise to temper expectations as we watch the Lightning play throughout their faltering metrics.
Dallas Stars
Stanley Cup Odds: +2000

One loss and the Dallas Stars' Stanley Cup odds plummeted. After the Stars were dismantled at home, most sportsbooks adjusted them from +1200 to +2000. That downward trajectory should continue until Dallas is eliminated.

There was a significant gap between the top three teams in the Central Division and the rest of the pack. Among those standouts, the Stars secured home-ice advantage against the rival Minnesota Wild in Round 1. However, the gap between the Wild and Stars shrank toward the end of the regular season, and we saw just how different these teams are in Game 1.

The Stars' imbalanced advanced metrics amplify those concerns. Dallas outperformed its expected goals-for percentage, implying that we could see a correction early in the playoffs. If the series opener was any indication, the Stars could fall early in the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Boston Bruins
Stanley Cup Odds: +6500

Arguably, the Boston Bruins were the most overrated team at the outset of the playoffs. The B's went on a late-season tear, securing the top wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. In doing so, we saw how fragile the Bruins are without the corresponding metrics.

Boston's unsustainable play is best captured in its expected goals-for stats. In terms of actual output, the Bruins finished with the fifth-best actual goals-for rating in the NHL (55.0%). Contrastingly, they ranked a distant 28th in expected goals-for rating, coming in at 46.7%. That's a substantive gap that the B's cannot bridge in the postseason.

Experience will undoubtedly be a factor in the playoffs, but it's just a matter of time before the Bruins' season comes to an unceremonious conclusion.
Buffalo Sabres
Stanley Cup Odds: +1200

A monumental come-from-behind victory in Game 1 over the Bruins has propelled the Buffalo Sabres up the Stanley Cup futures board. But that doesn't offset their shortcomings or make them a true contender.

Coming off their first division title in nearly two decades, expectations are sky high for the Sabres. Still, this is a team that ranked in the bottom half of the league in expected goals-for rating and spends more time chasing the puck than creating chances. Kudos to Buffalo for undoing years of underachieving in a four-month span, but this still isn't a team that can hang with the elite analytics clubs.

One of the Sabres or Bruins will continue their postseason journey beyond the first round. Gambling prices will shift to reflect changing expectations, but neither team has a chance of competing with the conference's top teams.
Colorado Avalanche
Stanley Cup Odds: +270

The Colorado Avalanche enter the Presidents' Trophy winners and Stanley Cup favorites. Still, their metrics are unsustainable, and the betting line is overinflated, making the Avs one of the most overrated teams at the outset of the playoffs.

The Avalanche got off to a terrific start this season, but has seen its metrics deteriorate over the latter stages of the campaign. Altogether, they have overachieved relative to their expected goals-for rating, elevating their PDO beyond sustainable measures.

The betting public never shies away from backing an overachieving team, and that's the case with Colorado. The Central Division champions enter the postseason as prohibitive Stanley Cup favorites, with their implied probability exceeding their actual chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Mug. All of this on the overlay of a team that has made it out of the second round just once since 2002.

It's a tough pill to swallow, but the heavily-favored Avalanche are overrated.

5 Most Overrated Teams in the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs

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