Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks Round 2 Series Preview

For the first time since 1992, the Vancouver Canucks face off against the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. A lot of things have changed over the past few decades, but the hatred between these franchises is one of the few things still going strong. 

This second-round playoff matchup guarantees that at least one Canadian squad will make the Western Conference Final, and bettors have taken a firm stance on who they think it will be. 

Home Ice Advantage?

By virtue of their first division crown since the 2012-13 season, the Canucks have assured themselves of home-ice advantage through Round 2 of the playoffs. Still, that’s not enough to convince bettors that they are worth the investment. Vancouver enters as decisive +202 underdogs on the series line and +102 to stay within +1.5 games of the Oilers. Surely, home-ice isn’t the advantage the Canucks thought it would be. 

Goaltending Woes

Of course, more than just home ice considerations go into making the series line. One of the most prominent factors against the Nucks is their sub-optimal goaltending situation. 

Throughout the regular season, Thatcher Demko was the man for the Canucks. The American netminder appeared in 51 games for Vancouver, setting career-bests in goals against average (2.45) and save percentage (91.8%). In doing so, Demko earned the distinction of Vezina Trophy finalist for the first time in his career. 

However, Demko’s season has seemingly come to an end. He rushed back from a lower-body ailment at the end of the regular season, barely lasting one playoff game before he was relegated to the press box and listed as week-to-week. 

Subsequently, Casey DeSmith went down with an injury later in the series, leaving Arturs Silovs as the last man standing in the Canucks blue paint. 

Granted, Silovs was sensational against the Nashville Predators. The rarely-used goalie stopped 75 of 80 shots for a 93.8% save percentage, but that’s a substantial deviation away from his season-long benchmark of 88.1%. Combined with the Oilers’ improved offensive standing, Silovs is poised for regression in Round 2. 

Check out our NHL weekend wrap below.

Analytics Edge

The Oilers have several advantages worth considering ahead of puck drop on Wednesday. Most notably, they were the superior analytics team from the campaign’s outset. 

Edmonton ended the season with the top-ranked expected goals-for percentage in the league. And their dominance is well-documented on both ends of the ice. Connor McDavid and company finished the campaign with the most high-danger and scoring chances. Moreover, they matched that energy with sterling defensive performances. The Oilers ranked in the top ten in both defensive categories, allowing the ninth-fewest scoring and sixth-fewest high-danger opportunities.

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Playoff Momentum

More importantly, they maintained that form into the postseason. The Oilers outplayed the Los Angeles Kings in four of five opening-round contests, getting out-chanced in quality chances just once over that stretch.

Conversely, the Canucks momentum is carrying them in opposite directions ahead of the second round. Vancouver was outplayed in three of its past four games to end Round 1, culminating with a lackluster 47.2% expected goals-for rating.

As if goaltending wasn’t enough, the Oilers play a more responsible defensive system with higher-end offensive capabilities.

Oilers Dealing in Poetic Justice

Edmonton’s path to the Western Conference Final is far from guaranteed, but they have a pronounced advantage ahead of Game 1. Bettors are lining up around the block to get a piece of the Oilers as they lean into their system and take advantage of an untested Canucks goalie. 

Sharp hockey purists will remember that the Oilers 2023-24 season got off to a rocky start. It can’t all be attributed to losing the home-and-home series against the Canucks to open the campaign by a combined 12-4 margin. Those two losses weren’t the only reason Edmonton started slow, but they were definitely a contributing factor. 

Now, the Oilers can exact their revenge, ending the Canucks season as tragically as theirs began. Unless Vancouver wins the first two games of the series, this is the best price you’re getting on the Oilers at any point in this series.

As our analysis suggests, now is the time to back Edmonton to advance to the conference finals for the second time in three years. 

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