NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 18 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value
Grant White
Host · Writer
The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.
Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.
Check out our NHL best bets for March 13!
Where to Watch Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche
- Stadium: Ball Arena
- Location: Denver, CO
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Betting Odds
- Spread: DAL +1.5 (-190) | COL -1.5 (+160)
- Total: Over 6.5 (+105) | Under (-125)
- Moneyline: DAL +125 | COL -145
Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Kalshi Odds
- Chance: DAL 44% | COL 57%
- Spread: COL -1.5 Yes 36¢ | No 65¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 47¢ | No 54¢
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
Not to be melodramatic, but the fate of the Central Division could come down to tonight’s clash between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche. As it stands, the Avs lead the Stars by three points and have a game in hand. With the win, Dallas could move within one point of Colorado for the division’s top spot. A loss, and the Stars face a seemingly insurmountable climb with just a few weeks left in the season. We’re betting Dallas brings the heat to Ball Arena.
The Stars were handed a one-sided defeat last time out. Still, their effort was more valiant than the score implies. They put up a resounding 63.3% expected goals-for rating while holding the Mammoth to 15 scoring and eight high-danger chances. That’s the defensive standard we’ve come to expect from the Stars. Dallas has held eight of its last nine opponents to eight or fewer high-danger opportunities, giving up a minuscule 5.6 chances per game. Assuredly, that will come in handy when containing the Avalanche offensive.
Dallas’ elite defensive zone play will be a factor tonight, but Colorado can’t get out of its own way lately. The Central Division leaders have been held to two or fewer goals at five-on-five in five of their last six, accumulating 11 tallies over that stretch. With a bloated 1.026 PDO on the season, ongoing correction could doom the Avalanche to diminished output to close out the campaign.
The Stars’ offensive game has been a mixed bag of late, and the Avs aren’t the kind of team to roll over in their own end. We like Dallas’ chances of claiming victory, but we can’t help but think it comes down to overtime.
Best Bet: 60-Minute Tie +300
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Where to Watch Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals
- Stadium: Capital One Arena
- Location: Washington, DC
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals Betting Odds
- Spread: OTT -1.5 (+180) | WSH +1.5 (-235)
- Total: Over 6.5 (+115) | Under (-135)
- Moneyline: OTT -130 | WSH +110
Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals Kalshi Odds
- Chance: OTT 55% | WSH 46%
- Spread: OTT -1.5 Yes 33¢ | No 69¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 45¢ | No 56¢
The Ottawa Senators have some ground to make up in the Atlantic Division playoff race, and they’re running out of time to complete their late-season ascent. Sitting five points back of the last wild card spot, with two games in hand, the Sens can’t afford to cede ground in Wednesday’s clash versus the Washington Capitals.
Ottawa has been in fine form recently. Sitting 11-2-2 over their past 15, the Senators’ elite play is backed up with solid underlying metrics. Across the entirety of that sample, the playoff hopefuls have compiled a 57.4% expected goals-for rating, the second-best mark in the NHL. Moreover, that boost has been propped up by even more robust offensive production. Over their last six, the Sens are averaging 12.8 high-danger chances per game, including 17.0 over their previous two.
The Capitals don’t have a defense capable of limiting Ottawa’s offense. Since February 2, the once-proud franchise has allowed 10 or more quality chances in eight of its 12 contests, yielding a per-game average of 11.1. More concerningly, they’ve been outchanced in all but three of those contests.
Clearly, the analytics point towards a more substantive edge on the Senators than the betting line suggests. We’re using this spot to get a piece of the visitors at a discounted rate.
Best Bet: Senators -130
Where to Watch St. Louis Blues vs Calgary Flames
- Stadium: Scotiabank Saddledome
- Location: Calgary, AB
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
St. Louis Blues vs Calgary Flames Betting Odds
- Spread: STL -1.5 (+190) | CGY +1.5 (-265)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under (+100)
- Moneyline: STL -125 | CGY +105
St. Louis Blues vs Calgary Flames Kalshi Odds
- Chance: STL 54% | CGY 47%
- Spread: STL -1.5 Yes 32¢ | No 70¢
- Total: Over 5.5 Yes 52¢ | No 49¢
Money is just as green in these meaningless non-playoff matchups. The St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames are effectively eliminated from postseason contention, making the last 15 games of the season a formality. Curiously, the betting market has installed the Blues as favorites in this Western Conference tilt, but the sharpest bettors will see the advantage in backing the Flames.
With wins in six of its past eight, St. Louis has been on a torrid pace. However, those outcomes are not supported by the underlying metrics. The Blues have been consistently outplayed over that stretch, compiling a lackluster 48.0% expected goals-for rating. That imbalance has inflated their PDO to an untenable 1.045, pointing toward inevitable regression.
The Flames may have sold off most of their assets at the deadline, but it hasn’t come at the expense of their on-ice product. Calgary has outplayed three of its last five opponents, relying on a more structured approach in its defensive zone. Their previous three opponents have been held to a combined 21 quality chances, a system the Blues will struggle to break through.
In our humble opinion, the Flames are undeserving underdogs in this one. They have a superior analytics profile and should catch a regression-bound St. Louis Blues team off guard on Wednesday night. Flames’ moneyline is the play.
Best Bet: Flames +105
NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for March 18, 2026
- DAL-COL 60-Minute Tie +300
- Senators -130
- Flames +105
We’ve lined our Wednesday night NHL betting card with our three favorite plays. We’re betting the Stars and Avalanche sort things out in overtime or a shootout, with the Sens and Flames cruising to victory in their respective matchups.
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