SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, April 6

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

Predicting the NHL’s Western Conference Playoff Bracket

New Jersey Devils vs. Ottawa Senators
Senators Moneyline (-105): 5-Star Rating

Well, this has become the Ottawa Senators’ way of doing business. The Sens underperform through the early part of the campaign, turning things on late. Although that MO doesn’t further their own development cause, it does create a winning edge for bettors late in the season. Tonight, we’re backing them as home underdogs against the struggling New Jersey Devils.

Somehow New Jersey’s play stinks more than the freeways they reside on. The Devils have been outplayed in three of their past five, usually by a substantial margin. Cumulatively, their expected goals-for rating is hovering at 44.3%, but they’ve fallen below 40.0% on three occasions. An absence of defending has precipitated the erosion, and that will continue to plague them before the end of the season.

Ottawa is coming off a downtrodden performance, ending an otherwise successful stretch. Prior to that 6-0 defeat to the Florida Panthers, the Senators had won five of their past six, totaling 23 goals across the six-game stretch. Still, their actual goals-for rating remains below expected, implying further progression is anticipated. 

The Devils have long since abandoned their postseason aspirations, making the end of the season nothing more than a formality. As they typically do, the Senators have reserved their best performances for the end of the campaign. Consequently, we’re backing the Sens to pull off the upset in Saturday’s Eastern Conference showdown.

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings
Canucks Moneyline (+100): 5-Star Rating

After a diminished spell in which the Vancouver Canucks have gone 5-4-1, including 2-3-0 more recently, the Pacific Division remains ripe for the picking. Still, the Nucks are in the driver’s seat, controlling their own destiny, and could use tonight’s intra-divisional showdown against the Los Angeles Kings to further their cause. 

It might not be reflected in their outcomes, but the Canucks are delivering an improved expected goals-for rating over their recent sample. Vancouver has a 52.3% expected goals-for rating over its previous ten contests, above their season-long benchmark of 51.8%. Moreover, they’ve out-chanced opponents in quality chances in five of six, creating a 56.9% high-danger chance rating. 

The Kings have looked less assertive over their recent stretch. LA has manhandled some inferior opponents, but altogether, their efforts have been lackluster. They’ve put together a 48.1% expected goals-for rating over the past couple of weeks, but have curiously seen an uptick in wins. This imbalance has put them on an inevitable path with regression, starting tonight against the Canucks. 

Analytically, the Canucks are the superior team. As such, we’re backing them as plus-money road underdogs, as they look to cement their position atop the Pacific Division standings.

Predicting the NHL’s Eastern Conference Playoff Bracket

Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames
Flames Moneyline (+146): 4-Star Rating

The Battle of Alberta rages on tonight, with the Calgary Flames hosting the Edmonton Oilers in the final installment of the 2023-24 season. The betting market has taken a firm stance on the Oilers, but our algorithm reveals an edge in backing the Flames in this one. 

Scheduling-wise, the Flames have a hefty advantage. Edmonton comes into tonight’s contest on the second night of a back-to-back, after an emotional win over the Colorado Avalanche on Friday night. The Oilers shot themselves in the foot with their goaltending usage, electing to start primary netminder Stuart Skinner yesterday. As a result, Calvin Pickard will be called upon behind a tired team. 

As usual, the Flames are delivering stout defensive zone coverage. They’ve held four of their past five opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances, with a rolling average of 8.0 per game. Surely, that defensive responsibility will be crucial to limiting a dangerous Oilers attack. 

The last time these teams met, Calgary left with a decisive 6-3 win. Although it might not be as convincing, we’re expecting a similar result on Saturday night. Backing the Flames as +146 underdogs is rated as a five-star play.

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