Predicting the NHL’s Eastern Conference Playoff Bracket
Grant White
Host · Writer
Carolina Hurricanes (Metropolitan Division 2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (Metropolitan Division 3)
There's a lot to unpack with the final series. First, the Carolina Hurricanes have left themselves short on runway in pursuing a Metropolitan Division title. Consequently, they will have to go on a deep postseason run from the second seed. And as much as Washington Capitals fans would like to believe they hang onto the playoff berth, we expect the Philadelphia Flyers to knock them from their perch.
Get a +426 SGP for our NHL Best Bets for Monday.
The Flyers are a far superior analytics team compared to the Caps. Their 52.4% expected goals-for rating ranks in the top ten, putting them 17 spots ahead of Washington and its 46.8% benchmark. These teams face each other in the regular season finale, with the winner likely clinching the final postseason berth.
It may all be for naught in the end, as whoever finishes third will have to quell the mighty Hurricanes in the opening round. Still, our money is on the Flyers at -188 to make the playoffs.
Eastern Conference Playoff Bracket
Like their counterparts to the West, most of the Eastern Conference's playoff spots are already spoken for. The top half of both divisions are relatively stable, with most franchises knowing that they are gearing up for the postseason. Still, some jostling for the final wild card spot will spill into the third seed in the Metropolitan Division. Those battles could upset the Eastern Conference standings as we know them.
New York Rangers (Metropolitan Division 1) vs. Detroit Red Wings (Wild Card 2)
It might not look like it right now, but we think the Detroit Red Wings have enough left in the tank to claim the final wild card spot. The NHL loves a good narrative, and getting an Original Six matchup between Patrick Kane's current and former squads is exactly what it's looking for.
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Analytically, the Red Wings are prime progression candidates. Since the All-Star break, Detroit has been operating below its expected goals for percentage. They've put together a sub-optimal .458 points percentage and .985 PDO, implying that they are due for some puck luck over the season's final few weeks. That leaves a bettor-friendly edge in backing the Wings at +150 to make the playoffs.
The Rangers control their own destiny in the ultra-competitive Metropolitan Division. However, with New York walking an unobstructed path to the end of the regular season, no one can rob them of their home-ice advantage through the playoffs.
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Florida Panthers (Atlantic Division 1) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (Wild Card 2)
As it stands, the Florida Panthers occupy the second spot in the Atlantic Division. However, with a game in hand and more regulation and overtime wins than the Boston Bruins, we project the Panthers usurping the B's before the end of the season. That would put them on a collision course with their in-state rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, in Round 1.
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Florida gets a lot of credit for its offensive production, but its defensive metrics set it apart. The Panthers have allowed fewer scoring chances than any other team in the NHL, sitting sixth in high-danger chances against. As a result, they have the second-lowest expected goals-against, contributing to a robust 54.0% expected goals-for rating. That's exactly the type of team profile that excels in the playoffs, and the Panthers should start their ascent sooner rather than later.
The Bolts have been less assertive than their Floridian neighbors. Tampa Bay has the third-worst expected goals-for rating of any current playoff team and likely wouldn't be in a postseason spot if they played in another division. Still, the Lightning typically reserve their best efforts for the postseason, and that's what it will take to get past the Panthers.
Boston Bruins (Atlantic Division 2) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (Atlantic Division 3)
Arguably the best rivalry in hockey, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins are resigned to facing each other in the playoffs every year. The B's held the upper hand for years, but a resurgent Maple Leafs squad is starting to flip the script.
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Toronto is tidally locked to the third seed in the Atlantic Division. No matter what happens around them, there's no real path for them to move up or down the standings. However, we expect the Bruins to slip up, giving way to the aforementioned Panthers atop the standings.
This series is the reason why Gary Bettman re-aligned the playoffs. Renewing these classic rivalries in a seven-game series in the postseason captivates the hockey world. We don't agree with how it was manufactured, but we're still here for it. Boston versus Toronto is must-see TV in April.
Carolina Hurricanes (Metropolitan Division 2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (Metropolitan Division 3)
There's a lot to unpack with the final series. First, the Carolina Hurricanes have left themselves short on runway in pursuing a Metropolitan Division title. Consequently, they will have to go on a deep postseason run from the second seed. And as much as Washington Capitals fans would like to believe they hang onto the playoff berth, we expect the Philadelphia Flyers to knock them from their perch.
Get a +426 SGP for our NHL Best Bets for Monday.
The Flyers are a far superior analytics team compared to the Caps. Their 52.4% expected goals-for rating ranks in the top ten, putting them 17 spots ahead of Washington and its 46.8% benchmark. These teams face each other in the regular season finale, with the winner likely clinching the final postseason berth.
It may all be for naught in the end, as whoever finishes third will have to quell the mighty Hurricanes in the opening round. Still, our money is on the Flyers at -188 to make the playoffs.
Eastern Conference Playoff Bracket
Like their counterparts to the West, most of the Eastern Conference's playoff spots are already spoken for. The top half of both divisions are relatively stable, with most franchises knowing that they are gearing up for the postseason. Still, some jostling for the final wild card spot will spill into the third seed in the Metropolitan Division. Those battles could upset the Eastern Conference standings as we know them.
