Florida Panthers (Atlantic Division 1) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (Wild Card 2)
As it stands, the Florida Panthers occupy the second spot in the Atlantic Division. However, with a game in hand and more regulation and overtime wins than the Boston Bruins, we project the Panthers usurping the B's before the end of the season. That would put them on a collision course with their in-state rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, in Round 1.
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Florida gets a lot of credit for its offensive production, but its defensive metrics set it apart. The Panthers have allowed fewer scoring chances than any other team in the NHL, sitting sixth in high-danger chances against. As a result, they have the second-lowest expected goals-against, contributing to a robust 54.0% expected goals-for rating. That's exactly the type of team profile that excels in the playoffs, and the Panthers should start their ascent sooner rather than later.
The Bolts have been less assertive than their Floridian neighbors. Tampa Bay has the third-worst expected goals-for rating of any current playoff team and likely wouldn't be in a postseason spot if they played in another division. Still, the Lightning typically reserve their best efforts for the postseason, and that's what it will take to get past the Panthers.
