NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 12 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value
Grant White
Host · Writer
The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some sort of postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.
Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.
Check out our NHL best bets for March 12!
Where to Watch Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars
- Stadium: American Airlines Center
- Location: Dallas, TX
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars Betting Odds
- Spread: EDM +1.5 (-235) | DAL -1.5 (+184)
- Total: Over 6.5 (-128) | Under (+104)
- Moneyline: EDM +106 | DAL -128
Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars Kalshi Odds
- Chance: EDM 47% | DAL 54%
- Spread: DAL -1.5 Yes 34¢ | No 68¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 55¢ | No 47¢
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
A rematch of the previous two Western Conference Finals is on tap Thursday night, as the Dallas Stars host the Edmonton Oilers in Big D. Both teams are playing exceptional hockey of late, and we’re not convinced a winner will be decided in the first 60 minutes.
Edmonton came out of the Olympic break on a slide, but the two-time defending Western Conference champs have turned a corner with their most recent efforts. The Oilers are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Colorado Avalanche, outplaying the hosts for the duration of the contest. Those dominant efforts are captured in their underlying metrics, with the Oilers outplaying six of their last eight opponents. Across that stretch, they’ve compiled a 59.6% expected goals-for rating while out-chancing their opponents in high-danger chances in all but two of those outings.
Somehow, the Stars have set the bar even higher with their recent play. Dallas has outplayed its opponents in 12 straight, accumulating an NHL-best 64.9% eGF rating across that sample. The Stars are known for their typically stout defensive play, but it’s their offense that is turning heads more recently. Over their past four games, they are averaging 14.8 high-danger chances per contest, eclipsing 12 in all but one of those outings.
Tonight, we’ll get the answer to what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The betting market is light on the Stars, and there may be an edge in backing the hosts. Still, our preferred entry point is betting this one to go to overtime or a shootout.
Best Bet: 60-Minute Tie +300
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Where to Watch Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vegas Golden Knights
- Stadium: T-Mobile Arena
- Location: Las Vegas, NV
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vegas Golden Knights Betting Odds
- Spread: PIT +1.5 (-194) | VGK -1.5 (+156)
- Total: Over 6.5 (+104) | Under (-128)
- Moneyline: PIT +130 | VGK -156
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vegas Golden Knights Kalshi Odds
- Chance: PIT 42% | VGK 58%
- Spread: VGK -1.5 Yes 39¢ | No 65¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 48¢ | No 54¢
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Vegas Golden Knights are both looking to end their recent slides. Pittsburgh has just one win over its past five, whereas the Knights have dropped three in a row and six of seven. The betting market has Vegas up, but the gap between these teams may be bigger than the line implies.
The Pens were bested by the Hurricanes last time out, ending their four-game streak of outplaying their opponents. Unfortunately, we’re not counting on an improved performance out west. The Penguins have struggled to capitalize on their chances of late, recording one or fewer goals in three of their previous five. More concerningly, they’ve given up 10 or more high-danger chances in six of seven, playing into the Knights’ offensive strengths.
The outcomes haven’t gone Vegas’ way, but the analytics point toward an inevitable swing in fortunes. The Golden Knights have outplayed seven of their last eight opponents, usually by a wide margin. While they’ve accumulated a 57.9% eGF rating over that stretch, vaulting north of 60.0% in three of those contests. The foundation of that success has been improved offensive efforts, with the Knights recording at least 10 high-danger chances in all but two of those games.
Pittsburgh’s most prominent weakness plays in the Knights’ more notable strength. Vegas is due for increased scoring and improved results, and those should both come against a road-weary Penguins team that struggles to contain opponents.
We predict a convincing win from the hosts, making the puck line the most profitable entry point.
Best Bet: Golden Knights -1.5 +156
NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for March 12, 2026
- EDM-DAL 60-Minute Tie +300
- Golden Knights -1.5 +156
There is no shortage of marquee matchups on tonight’s slate, and we’ve got our two favorite plays locked and loaded. We’re betting that the Oilers and Stars go to overtime, with the Golden Knights skating to a convincing win over the Pens.
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