NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 11 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value

The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some sort of postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.

Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges. 

Check out our NHL best bets for March 11!

Where to Watch Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators

• Stadium: Canadian Tire Centre
• Location: Ottawa, ON
• Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators Betting Odds

• Spread: MTL +1.5 (-188) | OTT -1.5 (+152)
  
• Total: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
• Moneyline: MTL +134 | OTT -162

Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators Kalshi Odds

• Chance: MTL 40% | OTT 62%
• Spread: OTT -1.5 Yes 38¢ | No 65¢
• Total: Over 6.5 Yes 53¢ | No 48¢

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Death, taxes, and the Ottawa Senators playing exceptional hockey at the end of the season. It’s often too little, too late, but the Sens have less ground to make up over the final 19 games of the season than usual. With that, they can bolster their postseason chances with a win over the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday night. 

Ottawa has been unbeatable of late. Winners of three in a row and seven of their last 10, the Senators have points in all but one of those games. More importantly, those outcomes are grounded in sensational metrics. The Sens have outplayed 12 of their last 13 opponents, accumulating a 58.8% expected goals-for rating.

Not only is that the second-best mark in the NHL over that stretch, but we’re also predicting sustained success over the final month of the campaign. So far this season, the Sens have compiled a sterling 54.8% eGF rating. Still, their actual goals-for is nearly two points below that, coming in at 53.0%. Naturally, that points toward sustained progression with their current on-ice product.

Conversely, the Habs have looked much less convincing with their recent performances. Montreal has been outplayed in nine of 11 games, usually by a substantial margin. Altogether, they’ve put together a deflating 44.1% eGF rating, the third-worst rank in the NHL. With an actual goals-for of 59.3%, it’s clear the Canadiens are spiraling towards regression. 

The Sens are fighting to catch their division rivals for a wild-card spot. They can create a four-point swing by knocking off the Habs at home. The betting market is tilted in their direction, and we like the Senators’ chances of cashing at home.

Best Bet: Senators -162

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Where to Watch Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers

• Stadium: Xfinity Mobile Arena
• Location: Philadelphia, PA
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers Betting Odds

• Spread: WSH -1.5 (+205) | PHI +1.5 (-260)
• Total: Over 5.5 (-140) | Under (+114)
• Moneyline: WSH -113 | PHI -106

Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers Kalshi Odds

• Chance: WSH 52% | PHI 49%
• Spread: WSH -1.5 Yes 32¢ | No 72¢
• Total: Over 5.5 Yes 57¢ | No 46¢

The Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers are clinging to their respective playoff hopes. The Caps are seven points back of the final wild card spot, while the Flyers are nine out. The loser of tonight’s Metropolitan Division showdown won’t be eliminated from playoff contention, but the victor will certainly have a leg up down the stretch. 

Washington enters this intra-divisional clash as short road favorites; however, their metrics point us to a much different conclusion. The Capitals have iced a sub-optimal product lately. They have been outchanced in scoring opportunities in seven straight, a stretch in which they attempted more high-danger chances than their opponents only twice. As expected, that has precipitated a downturn in their expected goals-for rating. The Capitals have produced an underwhelming eGF of 41.7%. 

The Flyers aren’t a dominant analytics team, but they have sharpened their recent efforts. They’ve outchanced three of their previous five opponents in high-danger chances, yielding a 56.7% high-danger chance rating. The ice hasn’t been tilted entirely in their direction, but the Flyers have compiled a 49.2% eGF rating across that sample. Compared to their actual goals-for a rating of 41.7%, there is clear room for improvement in scoring. 

The Capitals are undeserving underdogs in this spot. They have been dog walked every time they step on the ice, and their outcomes are incompatible with their lack of effort. Philadelphia plays a stifling defensive brand of hockey, and we should see increased output over its coming stretch. That’s enough to convince us to pull the trigger on the Flyers.

Best Bet: Flyers -106

NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for March 11, 2026

• Senators -162
• Flyers -106

There are only two games on the docket, but we’ve got moneyline plays in each contest. We’re taking the Sens to triumph over the Canadiens, with the Flyers upsetting the Capitals at home.

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