NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 10 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value

The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some sort of postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.

Check out our NHL best bets for March 9!

Where to Watch Anaheim Ducks vs Winnipeg Jets

• Stadium: Canada Life Centre
• Location: Winnipeg, MB
• Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

Anaheim Ducks vs Winnipeg Jets Betting Odds

• Spread: ANA +1.5 (-220) | WPG -1.5 (+176)
  
• Total: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under (-122)
• Moneyline: ANA +105 | WPG -126

Anaheim Ducks vs Winnipeg Jets Kalshi Odds

• Chance: ANA 46% | APG 54%
• Spread: WPG -1.5 Yes 35¢ | No 71¢
• Total: Over 6.5 Yes 49¢ | No 53¢

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The Anaheim Ducks have flown up the standings, taking top spot in the Pacific Division with a month left in the regular season. The only problem is that those wins are being built on unsustainable metrics. The Ducks came crashing back down to earth last time out, and we predict they will be outmatched by the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night.

Their 7-2-0 record is inspiring, but the Ducks’ sensational run is built on faulty metrics. Across that sample, Anaheim has been outplayed in all but two of those contests. They have produced a disastrous 44.4% expected goals-for percentage, the sixth-worst mark in the NHL over that stretch. Relative to their 51.2% actual goals-for rating, it’s clear that the Ducks are regression candidates over their coming games. 

The Jets are trending much more positively. Winners of three in a row, Winnipeg has outplayed its competition in each one of those contests, generating a cumulative 59.4% expected goals-for rating. The strength of those performances is built on renewed defensive play, with the Jets giving up just 19 high-danger chances across the three-game stretch, translating to just five goals against across all strengths. 

Both teams are winning, but analytically, the Jets and Ducks are diametrically opposed. Winnipeg should put forth another valiant effort, whereas the regression-bound Ducks should see more losses pile up in the immediate future.

The Jets moneyline is a no-brainer. 

Best Bet: Jets -126

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Where to Watch Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars

• Stadium: American Airlines Center
• Location: Dallas, TX
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Betting Odds

• Spread: VGK +1.5 (-192) | DAL -1.5 (+164)
• Total: Over 5.5 (-128) | Under (+104)
• Moneyline: VGK +130 | DAL -156

Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Kalshi Odds

• Chance: VGK 42% | DAL 58%
• Spread: DAL -1.5 Yes 37¢ | No 66¢
• Total: Over 5.5 Yes 55¢ | No 47¢

Still considered a top Stanley Cup contender, the Vegas Golden Knights have struggled to consistently perform this season. Particularly against premier competition. Since November 20, they have just one win against a playoff team, and issues have been compounded by some troublesome scoring. Those inefficiencies will be brought to the forefront of tonight’s encounter versus the Dallas Stars. 

The Knights’ scoring issues need to be investigated. With one or fewer five-on-five goals in four of its past six, Vegas’ most prominent strength has evaporated when they need it most. Moreover, that decrease in scoring coincides with an increase in goals against, with Golden Knights’ netminders allowing three or more five-on-five goals in all but one of their previous six. That’s going to be an issue against the analytically superior Stars.

Dallas has been on an unbelievable heater. Outplaying their opponents in 12 straight, we’ve seen them level up their on-ice product over their recent stretch. Over their previous five contests, the Stars have put together an assinine 69.3% expected goals-for rating. As inferred, the Central Division contenders have maximized production at both ends of the ice, as reflected in their 75.0% high-danger and 65.2% scoring-chance ratings. 

Vegas will need to be at its best to keep pace with the Stars. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been their strength of late. Dallas’s chances of leaving with the win vastly exceed the implied probability of the betting price. Get a piece of the hosts in this one. 

Best Bet: Stars -156

Where to Watch Pittsburgh Penguins vs Carolina Hurricanes

• Stadium: Lenovo Center
• Location: Raleigh, NC
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Carolina Hurricanes Betting Odds

• Spread: PIT +1.5 (-140) | CAR -1.5 (+114)
• Total: Over 6.5 (-104) | Under (+128)
• Moneyline: PIT +184 | CAR -225

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Carolina Hurricanes Kalshi Odds

• Chance: PIT 35% | CAR 66%
• Spread: CAR -1.5 Yes 45¢ | No 57¢
• Total: Over 6.5 Yes 49¢ | No 55¢

The Pittsburgh Penguins are getting by without Sidney Crosby, but the results have been less than impressive. The Pens have just one win over their past four, a record they will need to improve on to fend off the up-and-comers in the Metropolitan Division. Bettors are lining up around the block to get a piece of the Carolina Hurricanes, but the Penguins will give them more than they can handle at home. 

Pittsburgh’s outcomes don’t reflect its on-ice product. While they only have one win over their last four, the Penguins have outplayed their opponents in each one of those contests, compiling a sterling 58.5% expected goals-for rating along the way. Still, output doesn’t match production. The Pens have just six five-on-five goals over that stretch, significantly below their expected total of 10.6. Expect a correction, which will precipitate an increase in scoring. 

Some of that boost should come against a well-traveled Hurricanes squad. Carolina just concluded a Western Conference road trip, going 3-1-0. The Canes have fallen below nine high-danger chances in all but one of those contests, getting outchanced by a 17-22 margin over their past two. Now settled into the comforts of home, the Hurricanes could have a hard time adjusting to the Penguins’ onslaught on Tuesday night. 

Scheduling-wise, this is a nightmare spot for Carolina. The Metropolitan Division leaders have seen eroding metrics and are playing their fifth game in eight nights while traveling across the continent. Pittsburgh will be ready to execute and is primed for a stunning upset in Raleigh.

Best Bet: Penguins +184

NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for March 10, 2026

• Jets -126
• Stars -156
• Penguins +184

We’ve got three moneyline plays lined up for Tuesday night’s NHL action. We’re backing the Jets and Stars as undervalued favorites, mixing in the Penguins as steep road underdogs versus the Hurricanes.

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