Copa 2024 Semifinal: Argentina vs. Canada, Prediction, Best Bet

Argentina is the defending champions and came into the competition as one of the favorites, looking primed to go back-to-back. They’ll be looking to beat Canada again, but this time in the Semifinals of the Copa America. Argentina snuck past Ecuador, needing penalties to win and another Emi Martinez penalty shootout masterclass. Lionel Messi may not be setting the world on fire, but he still has magic in his boots and can turn a game on its head. He and Lautaro Martinez are a dangerous one-two punch up top. 

La Albiceleste will look to be more clinical in front of the net this time. They dominated the possession, had 19 shots, with nine being on target, and only managed to convert two. At the same time, Canada has grown into the tournament and has been playing exciting, fearless soccer. Argentina will expect to have the majority of the possession and once again try and impose their will on the Canadians. Keep an eye out for Alexis Mac Allister, who already has two tournament assists. With Canada potentially relinquishing most of the possession, his ability to keep things moving in the middle of the pitch will be essential.  

Canada also needed penalties to make it to this stage. They’ve already overperformed expectations in their first appearance at the Copa America, becoming just the fourth CONCACAF team to make it to the Semifinals of the tournament. It was a nervy win at times against Venezuela, with Canada appearing to struggle at times with the physicality on display. Jesse Marsch has his team playing high-level soccer, and striker Cyle Larin has said that Argentina has not seen their best effort.

One player who will have to perform well is Canada’s goalkeeper, Maxime Crepeau. In their first game, he faced six shots on target and turned away four; he has also kept two clean sheets in the tournament, second only to Emi Martinez and Sergio Rochet. Crepeau has also outperformed his expected goals on target, only allowing three while having an xGOT of 4.95. Canada will also hope that Alphonso Davies makes his way onto the scoresheet. Their superstar still does not have a goal involvement in the tournament. 

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Copa America Semifinals Best Bet

Messi has not had the tournament many people expected. He has yet to register a goal but has one assist and has been involved in the most sequences that have led to a shot with 22. Messi’s best game was the opener against Canada, where he got his assist. Canada allowed him free space to roam, and despite them growing into the tournament, there’s no reason to believe Messi won’t have space again. Lautaro Martinez has been clinical in front of goal, and it was a Messi assist that got him his first goal. Expect more of the same here, with Messi setting the table for his teammates. 

Best Bet: Lionel Messi Anytime Assist (+175)

Copa America Championship Semifinals Best Prop Bet

In their first matchup, both teams had many chances. While Canada has only scored twice thus far in the tournament, its style of play and the way it’s grown into the tournament have shown it has the potential. Meanwhile, Argentina had a comfortable win over Canada, and while it was only a 2-0 scoreline, it had plenty of chances to add to it. With the stakes being high and both teams inevitably pushing for a win, the game could open up quickly.

Best Prop: Over 2.5 Goals (+102)

Copa America Championship Semifinals Best Anytime Goal Bet

Lautaro Martinez has been electric for Argentina in the Copa America. He is leading the race for the Golden Boot. That alone makes him a safe bet to score against Canada. Martinez scored in that initial matchup and will surely benefit from Messi’s service. Chances will come naturally with him and Messi playing up top as the two strikers, causing Canada’s defense headaches. 

Anytime Goal Scorer: Lautaro Martinez (+150)

Copa America Semifinals Prediction

Argentina has not lost to a CONCACAF opponent in their last ten official competitions and has not conceded a goal in any of the previous six such matches. Of the last five defending champions to make the Semifinals, only two – Colombia in 2004 and Chile in 2019 – have failed to make the finals. Canada will have its work cut out for them if they want to pull off the upset. As good as they have looked, it is a much stiffer test this time around against the world’s No. 1 ranked team. Even if Canada plays their best possible game and takes their chances, it most likely won’t be enough.

Argentina 3 – Canada 0 

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