Ruben Chavez

Euro Futures Odds: Analyzing Value in Portugal and Netherlands

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Kicking off the Knockout Stage at the Euros, the Defending Champs, Italy, are facing off against Switzerland. Both teams qualified second in their group, Italy with 4 points and Switzerland with 5. History favors the Italians as they have a 29-24-7 record all-time against the Swiss. Neither team looked unbeatable in their group. After surviving a scare against Albania, Italy was easily dealt with by Spain and left it late against Croatia. Meanwhile, the Swiss beat Hungary in their opener and drew the next two, exposing some of their shortcomings. 
After receiving a second yellow card, Riccardo Calafiori will be a miss for the Italians. Despite being slight favorites, the Italians must be careful with Switzerland. Xherdan Shaqiri is a match-winner, and with the Azzurri struggling in front of goal, it may only take one moment. If Switzerland beats Italy, it would be their first win in 31 years over the Italians.
While it should be a tightly contested match, I believe the Azzurri will defend well enough on the counter and do enough offensively to get it done.
Italy 1 - Switzerland 0
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Switzerland +122 vs. Italy -150 (Sat. June 29 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

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The hosts will face Denmark in their first knockout game, and the Germans are the favorites to win. Germany qualified at the top of their group and looked much stronger than expected. Denmark, on the other hand, has not looked convincing.
Coming second in their group, they failed to secure a single win and have sometimes looked disjointed. Despite that, Peter Schmeichel has been sharp in the net, and Christian Eriksen has created chances for the Danes. Still, Germany is a dangerous team, and Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Toni Kroos, and super sub Niclas Fullkrug will surely create plenty of dangerous opportunities.
It is also worth noting that the last time they played each other at the Euros in 2012, Germany won 2-1, and five members of that squad are still on the team: Manuel Neuer, Toni Kroos, Thomas Muller, and Ilkay Gundogan.
It will be a rocking atmosphere in Dortmund, and the German's superior squad should see out the match reasonably comfortably against a Danish team that struggled to move through the gears. 
Germany 2 - Denmark 0

Germany -385 vs. Denmark +290 (Sat. June 29 – 3:00 p.m. ET)

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England and their fans are thrilled about the side of the draw they landed on as they avoid the other favorites and will line up against Slovakia. The English are still given the best odds to win despite their underwhelming performances thus far. The Three Lions have not looked at their best consistently, only really clicking in spurts. There has also been a lot of criticism of Southgate and his players, enough so that some players have hit back. This is a daunting task for Slovakia, but they’ve already upset Belgium and will be motivated to shock the world.
On the other hand, England hopes this game will provide a platform for Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, and their other big-name players to grow into the tournament and kick into gear. While England and their fans will hope for a one-sided affair that makes a statement, it seems unlikely, given their results thus far. If form is anything to go by, it will be a cagey affair, but Slovakia’s lack of attacking threat may be enough to let England off the hook.
As tempting as it would be to pick an upset, England's defense has been solid, and they have not surrendered many big chances. Pair that with Slovakia's deficiencies in attack, and the Three Lions will punch their ticket to the next round, albeit unspectacularly. 
England 1 - Slovakia 0

England -700 vs. Slovakia +470 (Sun. June 30 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

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Spain, who have hardly broken a sweat thus far in the tournament, will play Georgia in their first knockout game. La Roja is the only team to win all of its matches thus far, and the way it has done so has many people considering it a favorite. Lamine Yamal has been so impressive that you forget he is only 16. Fabian Ruiz has been phenomenal, and Rodri continues to prove why he is so highly rated.
For Georgia, this tournament has already been a dream. They scored their first point ever in a Euros, followed by their first win, all in their first major international tournament. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia delivered when needed, and Giorgi Mamardashvili has been a wall. Still, this feels like the end of their fairytale run. Spain is clicking at the right time and seems primed to keep their tournament rolling.
Every neutral watching is sure to back Georgia and see them continue to make history, but one cannot shake the feeling of the clock striking midnight. Spain looks like a well-oiled machine and doesn't seem likely to slow down. 
Spain 3 - Georgia 1

Spain -2000 vs. Georgia +920 (Sun. June 30 – 3:00 p.m. ET)

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France are taking on Belgium in the Round of 16. France qualified second in their group behind Austria after dropping points to Poland and the Netherlands. Belgium has also been underwhelmed, losing to Slovakia and drawing to Ukraine, finishing second. The mood around the team is low, with the fans booing the players after their last group stage match.
On paper, this is the blockbuster tie. Despite time winding down on Belgium’s Golden Generation, there is still star power with Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Jeremy Doku.
But the French will still be the favorite due to their recent performances at big tournaments and having who many consider the best player on the planet in Kylian Mbappe.
With the vibe around both squads and their supporters at an all-time low, the major difference will be in players' quality and history.
Despite both sides bringing big names, the French team has a deeper, more well-rounded squad. A tougher opponent may very well be able to exploit their deficiencies. Unfortunately, the Belgians don't seem up to the task. Belgium has a history of disappointing in tournaments, and it won't change here in a proper farewell to their Golden Generation. 
France 3 - Belgium 1

France -235 vs. Belgium +186 (Mon. July 1 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

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Portugal will be a heavy favorite in their knockout tie against Slovenia. The Portuguese finished top of their group but did stumble at the end, getting beat by Georgia. Slovenia finished with three draws, and their neutral goal difference was enough to bring them through to the knockouts for the first time in history as one of the best third-place teams.
Slovenia has quality. Goalkeeper Jan Oblak is hard to beat, while forwards Benjamin Sesko and Andraz Sporar are real threats on the attack.
Despite Portugal sometimes looking disjointed, they will back themselves to win comfortably. Players such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and Joao Palhinha show the difference in quality and the uphill battle for Slovenia.
Slovenia will defend deep and fiercely, and Oblak will have his fair share of heroics. Sesko and Sporar will create a chance or two that will strike fear into the Portuguese supporters. However, it won't be enough to knock off the favorites. The quality gap is too big, and Portugal's talent and determination will see them punch their ticket to the next round. 
Portugal 2 - Slovenia 0

Portugal -750 vs. Slovania +490 (Mon. July 1 – 3:00p.m. ET)

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Romania has already exceeded expectations, topping Group E. Their reward is a game against the Netherlands, who finished third in Group D after losing to Austria. This game seems the most likely to feature an upset. Despite the pedigree and some of the names in the squad making them the favorites, the Dutch have not looked good thus far.
Manager Ronald Koeman doesn’t seem to know his best 11 despite the glamorous names in attack. Memphis Depay, Xavi Simons, and Cody Gakpo have not been clinical in front of goal. Romania has also struggled to score, but it’s been solid on defense and excellent in its transition breakouts. This match doesn’t feel like it will have many goals. With Romania flying high and the Netherlands struggling, the game should have plenty of drama.
A major tournament always has surprises, and the Euros have been no different thus far. Few would pick Romania to advance in their group, and even fewer to top it. They are playing with nothing to lose while the Dutch struggle to find their identity. The Netherlands will have lots of questions to answer after this tie.  
 
Romania 1 - Netherlands 0

Romania +410 vs. Netherlands -590 (Tue. July 2 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

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Turkiye is taking on Austria in the Round of 16 in a battle of some pre-tournament dark horse candidates. Austria may be the in-form team of the tournament. Impressive wins over Poland and the Netherlands have made them a scary opponent for anyone.
While Austria may not have the top-tier star power, manager Ralf Rangnick has them playing excellent team soccer and imbued them with confidence. Turkiye started their tournament strong with a win over Georgia, but a big loss to Portugal and a tight win over 10-men Czechia has tempered expectations. Christoph Baumgartner and Marcel Sabitzer have been phenomenal for Austria. Meanwhile, Adra Guler and Kenan Yildiz have shown their match-winning ability for Turkiye.
Turkiye will be missing a few players due to suspensions following a historically chippy match in their last group game, where 18 cards (16 yellows, 2 reds) were shown. This match has all the ingredients for a European Classic. A depleted Turkiye squad that has been inconsistent will have a tough time competing with Austria. 
Austria 2 - Turkiye 1
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Austria -240 vs. Turkey +190 (Tue. July 2 – 3:00 p.m. ET)

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The Round of 16 is about to kick off for the 2024 UEFA European Championship, and SportsGrid is predicting how each fixture will go. Who will advance?

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