Buy or Sell – Kansas Jayhawks Under 6.5 Wins

Lance Leipold had his work cut out for him when he took over the Kansas Jayhawks football program two years ago. The Jayhawks hadn’t had a winning season since 2008, but that didn’t stop Leipold from almost immediately turning the ship around. 

The 2021 season was a rebuilding year where Leipold’s squad finished 2-10, but he laid the foundation for improvement as the Jayhawks ended 2022 at 6-7. They erased a 38-13 second-half deficit against the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Liberty Bowl only to fall in triple overtime to make it 15 straight losing seasons. 

Looking at the college football futures market at BetMGM Sportsbook, the Jayhawks’ regular win total is set at 6.5. In other words, they’d need to clinch an above .500 record in the regular season to hit the OVER.

BetMGM College Football Insights: Regular Season Win Totals 

Most bet OVERs (number of tickets)

• Colorado 3.5
• Iowa 7.5
• California 5.5

Most bet UNDERs (number of tickets)

• Kansas 6.5
• Oklahoma 9
• Florida State 9.5

Bettors aren’t buying the Jayhawks clinching their first winning season in a decade and a half. They’ve received the most tickets on the UNDER out of any team’s win total. History would tell us that’s the right side, but is it?

The Jayhawks return a Big-12-leading 17 starters that averaged 35.6 PPG despite dealing injuries to star quarterback Jalon Daniels. Devin Neal returns as a 1,000-yard rusher, as does a pass-catching unit that ranked ninth in EPA per Play and third in Explosiveness.

The defense will need to improve after surrendering 35.5 PPG, but the good news is there’s plenty of experience in the secondary. They struggled there a year ago, ranking 108th in EPA per Pass and 106th in Passing Success Rate, but are forecast to improve. Overall, expect improvement under Leipold, and the team already had a +0.8 yards per play differential.

The schedule shows two likely non-conference wins (vs. Missouri State and at Nevada), and the Illinois game is at home. The Big 12 is a league of parity, where many games are toss-ups, and the Jayhawks are fortunate to have five home games in league play.

Kansas has a terrific offense and is on an upward trajectory under Leipold. The Jayhawks rank second nationally in returning production, and yet BetMGM is offering +145 on the OVER, compared to -175 on the UNDER.

I disagree with the public’s love for the UNDER and would prefer to be on the plus-money side. 

Verdict: Sell Kansas Under 6.5 Wins