Predicting the Landing Spots for the Top 5 Available MLB Free Agents
Grant White
Host · Writer
Cody Bellinger - San Diego Padres
When Cody Bellinger inked his one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs last offseason, he knew he had something to prove. A year later, Belli is facing the same issue, albeit with a more robust resume. Thankfully, there's a team out West with a spending problem that still has something to prove.
Granted, the San Diego Padres have implemented a few cost-saving measures this offseason. The team jettisoned Juan Soto, declining several player options and not re-upping Blake Snell. As such, the team has some financial breathing room they can use to restructure their outfield.
The Padres have Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jose Azocar penciled in as everyday outfielders in 2024. That desperation is also matched in their batting order, with only Jake Cronenworth serving as a left-handed bat. Bellinger solves both of those problems, helping the Padres compete against the top teams in the league and moving them off their +4000 price in the World Series futures market.
Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
Sixteen seasons, three Cy Youngs, and one shoulder surgery later, there's still no telling whether or not Clayton Kershaw will return for another kick at the can. However, if he does decide to dust off the Wilson A2000 for one more campaign, it will be with no one other than the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Last year, Kershaw showed he still has plenty to offer. The former MVP went 13-5 with a sterling 2.46 ERA and 9.4 K/9 rate. Moreover, his underlying metrics remained mostly intact. Kershaw sat on the elite end of the spectrum in most categories, including the 73rd percentile in strikeout rate and 77th percentile in groundball percentage.
The Dodgers have already made moves to insulate themselves in case Kershaw decides to call it a career. GM Brandon Gomes brought in southpaw James Paxton as an end-of-the-rotation insurance plan. But the team also has Ryan Yarbrough and Bobby Miller available as starting lefties. Of course, that's without considering Tyler Glasnow or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
If he returns, Kershaw's only landing spot would be the Dodgers. However, it won't move them off their +350 price in the World Series futures market.
Jordan Montgomery - St. Louis Cardinals
It's not a far-fetched idea to think Jordan Montgomery returns to the club he pitched for in 2023. However, it might not be the one everyone is thinking of. The St. Louis Cardinals haven't made many moves this offseason, but bringing back Montgomery would solidify the backend of their rotation, helping them compete in the NL Central.
The big southpaw spent most of last season in St. Louis, accumulating a 3.42 ERA in 121.0 innings pitched with the Cardinals. Montgomery was moved ahead of the trade deadline, being sent to the Texas Rangers, and served as a top contributor during their World Series run.
The Cardinals desperately need to recapture some of that winning pedigree. Coincidentally, that's exactly what Montgomery has to offer.
Matt Chapman - San Francisco Giants
The window has officially closed on the San Francisco Giants dynasty. San Fran made one last-ditch effort in 2021, failing to crack .500 in each of their previous two seasons. Now is the time to start building for the future, and Matt Chapman can lay some of that groundwork for the club in 2024.
The Giants are seriously thin across most positions. Although J.D. Davis is set to return next season, San Francisco could migrate him to first, allowing LaMonte Wade Jr. to serve as a full-time outfielder. Their defense would be better because of it, slotting Chapman and his two-time winning Platinum Glove as the everyday third baseman.
The NL West features a gauntlet of top contenders. Unless the Giants make a few moves, including signing Chapman, we will watch them struggle in 2024.
Blake Snell - Seattle Mariners
This may seem counterintuitive considering some of the Seattle Mariners' offseason moves, but there's a potential marriage for Blake Snell remaining on the West Coast. The reigning National League Cy Young winner is looking to cash in on his record-setting performance, and the M's have a whole bunch of salary cap space to accommodate a deal. Further, Seattle is still looking to stay competitive in the AL West, and Snell would shine in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park.
Over the past three years, no ballpark has been more conducive to pitcher-friendly outcomes than T-Mobile Park. They rank dead last among all 30 major league stadiums, posting a 92 Park Factor, as calculated by Baseball Savant. That suits Snell's profile perfectly, as he continues to rank as one of the best in the MLB at inducing soft contact.
Justin Hollander can maximize the Mariners' window by inking Snell to a multi-year pact. If Snell does land in Seattle, you will be able to find him near the top of the Cy Young futures board.
Cody Bellinger - San Diego Padres
When Cody Bellinger inked his one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs last offseason, he knew he had something to prove. A year later, Belli is facing the same issue, albeit with a more robust resume. Thankfully, there's a team out West with a spending problem that still has something to prove.
Granted, the San Diego Padres have implemented a few cost-saving measures this offseason. The team jettisoned Juan Soto, declining several player options and not re-upping Blake Snell. As such, the team has some financial breathing room they can use to restructure their outfield.
The Padres have Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jose Azocar penciled in as everyday outfielders in 2024. That desperation is also matched in their batting order, with only Jake Cronenworth serving as a left-handed bat. Bellinger solves both of those problems, helping the Padres compete against the top teams in the league and moving them off their +4000 price in the World Series futures market.
Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
Sixteen seasons, three Cy Youngs, and one shoulder surgery later, there's still no telling whether or not Clayton Kershaw will return for another kick at the can. However, if he does decide to dust off the Wilson A2000 for one more campaign, it will be with no one other than the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Last year, Kershaw showed he still has plenty to offer. The former MVP went 13-5 with a sterling 2.46 ERA and 9.4 K/9 rate. Moreover, his underlying metrics remained mostly intact. Kershaw sat on the elite end of the spectrum in most categories, including the 73rd percentile in strikeout rate and 77th percentile in groundball percentage.
The Dodgers have already made moves to insulate themselves in case Kershaw decides to call it a career. GM Brandon Gomes brought in southpaw James Paxton as an end-of-the-rotation insurance plan. But the team also has Ryan Yarbrough and Bobby Miller available as starting lefties. Of course, that's without considering Tyler Glasnow or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
If he returns, Kershaw's only landing spot would be the Dodgers. However, it won't move them off their +350 price in the World Series futures market.
