Top 5 Longshot Horses to Bet in the 2024 Kentucky Derby
Grant White
Host · Writer
West Saratoga
Our love for grays has taken us to one of the longest horses on the board. West Saratoga is a quick throw-out for many bettors, but there's reason to believe this Larry Demeritte-trained colt shows up at Churchill Downs.
West Saratoga's progeny is second to none. Sired by 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator, you can also find Uncle Mo in his dam's pedigree. Although speed figures are important in a race of this stature, success is also heavily contingent on the rider. In that regard, Jesus Cantanon already has a 40.0% WPS percentage in 2024 and has a wealth of experience to draw on to extract maximum value from West Saratoga.
Winning was bred into West Saratoga, and we'll see the best he has to offer in the Kentucky Derby. Don't lose sight of this long shot when placing your wagers on Saturday.
Catalytic
Saffie Joseph Jr. trained Catalytic drew a favorable post position ahead of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. The brown colt will be running from the fifth position on Saturday. Combined with his peak form, Catalytic could upend some exotic wagers, if not pull off the stunning upset.
Sired by Catalina Cruiser, Catalytic's grandsire Union Rags flashed the distance pedigree to compete in the 1+1/4 mile race. Still, little is known about the lightly-raced colt other than his improved speed figures each time out.
As evidenced by his steep price, bettors are weary about backing Catalytic, which only adds to his value in the parimutuel pools.
Endlessly
No experience on dirt is forcing bettors to look past Endlessly in the Kentucky Derby. The colt has yet to race on dirt but has several notable wins, including the Jeff Ruby Steaks victory in March. That suggests that Endlessly has a better chance of claiming the Triple Crown victory than his morning odds imply.
Timing is everything; we've seen these speed patterns from Endlessly last year. The then two-year-old bumped his speed figures from 81 to 93 to 103, winning the Zuma Beach G3 race at Santa Anita Park. Likewise, Endlessly has gone from 90 to 93 in claiming victory in his two races in 2024.
Don't let limited experience scare you away from adding Endlessly to your exotics on Saturday.
Stronghold
Running out of Eric and Sharon Waller's stables, Stronghold presents as an intriguing longshot to pull off the upset on Saturday. The bay colt is coming off a substantive victory in the Santa Anita Derby and has one of the best-proven track records coming into the Derby.
Stronghold's latest win was his second straight victory and the third time he's been led to the winner's circle in six career races. More impressively, the Phil D'Amato-trained three-year-old has finished no worse than second in any of those showings.
Drawing the 18th position is negatively impacting Stronghold's outlook. But anything could happen in a race of this magnitude, and Stronghold is better than his morning odds imply.
Just Steel
It's been over two decades since Wayne Lukas last trained a Kentucky Derby-winning horse, but this could be the year it all comes together for the veteran trainer. Sired by 2018 winner Justify and trained by Lukas, Just Steel is poised to run away with this year's race as a 20-1 underdog.
Twice already, Just Steel has reached triple-digits with his speed figure, including his 100 figure in the Arkansas Derby at the end of March. Granted, Just Steel finished second to Muth in that race, but it's a promising indicator of what to expect at Churchill Downs.
We've seen Just Steel thrive under any conditions. He'll be ready, from an ideal post position, to make a run for the roses in Louisville.
West Saratoga
Our love for grays has taken us to one of the longest horses on the board. West Saratoga is a quick throw-out for many bettors, but there's reason to believe this Larry Demeritte-trained colt shows up at Churchill Downs.
West Saratoga's progeny is second to none. Sired by 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator, you can also find Uncle Mo in his dam's pedigree. Although speed figures are important in a race of this stature, success is also heavily contingent on the rider. In that regard, Jesus Cantanon already has a 40.0% WPS percentage in 2024 and has a wealth of experience to draw on to extract maximum value from West Saratoga.
Winning was bred into West Saratoga, and we'll see the best he has to offer in the Kentucky Derby. Don't lose sight of this long shot when placing your wagers on Saturday.
Catalytic
Saffie Joseph Jr. trained Catalytic drew a favorable post position ahead of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. The brown colt will be running from the fifth position on Saturday. Combined with his peak form, Catalytic could upend some exotic wagers, if not pull off the stunning upset.
Sired by Catalina Cruiser, Catalytic's grandsire Union Rags flashed the distance pedigree to compete in the 1+1/4 mile race. Still, little is known about the lightly-raced colt other than his improved speed figures each time out.
As evidenced by his steep price, bettors are weary about backing Catalytic, which only adds to his value in the parimutuel pools.
