UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC featherweight fight headlines UFC Fight Night 263 as No. 12-ranked Steve “Mean Machine" Garcia takes on No. 13-ranked David “Silent Assassin" Onama.
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Location: Enterprise, Nevada, United States
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: November 1, 2025
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night: Jeremiah Wells vs. Themba Gorimbo
Unranked welterweight Jeremiah Wells and Themba Gorimbo will face off on Saturday. Wells has lost two straight after winning six in a row before that. Gorimbo is also coming off a loss and is 4-1 over his previous five.
Gorimbo is three inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Both men knock down opponents at a similar rate, 0.56 and 0.57 times per 15 minutes. However, Gorimbo lands 0.74 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 0.22 fewer. Gorimbo also finishes 1.73 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and both men have takedown defense rates of 80 percent or higher. Wells’s one statistical edge is a slightly higher submission rate.
The fight looks pretty close on paper, but Gorimbo has the edge almost everywhere.
💰 Best Bet: Gorimbo to win (-132)
UFC Fight Night: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ante Delija
No.6-ranked heavyweight Waldo Cortes-Acosta takes on No. 9-ranked Ante Delija. Cortes-Acosta is coming off a loss to Sergei Pavlovich, but he strung together five straight wins before that defeat. Delija is riding a two-fight fight streak and is 7-1 over his previous eight.
Delija is one inch taller and has a huge nine-inch reach advantage. There is no doubt that Delija has the power edge, knocking down opponents 6.95 times per 15 minutes more than Cortes-Acosta. Both men land significant strikes at a high rate, Cortes-Acosta at 5.61 per minute and Delija at 6.34. However, Delija absorbs 1.56 fewer. Cortes-Acosta has the edge in grappling, but it’s negligible.
As much as Delija packs a punch, Cortes-Acosta survived against Pavlovich, so he probably doesn’t get knocked out. The one wild card is that the UFC Apex features a smaller cage, which leads to more knockouts. Due to the small cage, I think it’s worth the risk to take Delija to knock him out.
💰 Best Bet: Delija by KO/TKO (+250)
UFC Fight Night: Steve Garcia vs. David Onama
- Odds to Win: Garcia -140 | Onama +110
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -330 | Submission +650 | Decision +470
- Will the fight go the Distance? Yes +470 | No -750
In the main event, Steve Garcia will face David Onama. Garcia has won six straight, beating Calvin Kattar his last time out. Onama has won four straight and beat Giga Chikadze in a catchweight bout after Chikadze missed weight.
Garcia is one inch taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. He also has the power edge, dropping opponents 2.26 times per 15 minutes. Both fighters land a similar number of significant strikes at 5.18 and 5.24 per minute, but Garcia absorbs 2.53 fewer. Onama lands slightly more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Garcia has an 88 percent takedown defense rate, while both men have similar submission statistics.
The odds slightly favor Garcia, but I think his ability to avoid significant strikes will be the difference.
💰 Best Bet: Garcia to win (-140)
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