UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC lightweight fight headlines UFC Fight Night 261 as former champion and No. 4-ranked Charles “do Bronxs" Oliveira faces No. 8-ranked Mateusz “Gamer" Gamrot.
- Arena: Farmasi Arena
- Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: October 11, 2025
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
UFC 320: Vicente Luque vs. Joel Álvarez
Unranked welterweights Vicente “The Silent Assassin" Luque and Joel “El Fenómeno" Alvarez will do battle on Saturday. Luque is 2-4 over his previous six, losing to Kevin Holland last time out. Alvarez is on a three-fight win streak and has won seven of his previous eight.
Alvarez is three inches taller and has a 1.5-inch reach advantage. Luque will have the power edge, dropping opponents 0.45 times more per 15 minutes. Both men land significant strikes at a high rate, at 5.02 and 4.51 times per minute, but Luque absorbs 1.93 more. Luque will have the wrestling advantage, but Alvarez will have a submission edge.
This fight doesn’t set up well for Luque, with the momentum all in Alvarez’s corner. I don’t think he’ll last long in this one.
💰 Best Bet: Joel Alvarez by KO/TKO (+155)
UFC 320: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson
No. 8-ranked bantamweight Deiveson “Daico" Figueiredo takes on No. 15-ranked Montel “Quik" Jackson. Figueiredo has lost two straight, but was on a three-fight win streak before that. Jackson is riding a six-fight win streak, with his last loss being to Brett Johns in 2020.
Jackson is five inches taller and has a 7.5-inch reach advantage. He’ll have a massive power edge as well, dropping opponents twice as much per 15 minutes. Jackson lands 0.40 more significant dtrikes per minute, and absorbs 2.25 fewer. He’s also the better wrestler, averaging 1.55 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Figueiredo averages 1.01 more submissions.
I think Jackson’s size and power advantage will be too much for Figueiredo to handle, especially at 37 years old.
💰 Best Bet: Montel Jackson by Points (+120)
UFC 320: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
- Odds to Win: Oliveira -111 | Gamrot -115
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +200 | Submission +145 | Decision +170
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +180 | No -235
Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is facing Mateusz Gamrot after Rafael Fiziev withdrew three weeks out due to a knee injury. Oliveira has alternated wins and losses over his last fights, but as champion, he has a run of ten finishes in 11 straight wins (7 Submissions, 3 KO/TKO) before that. Gamrot is 4-1 over his last five, beating Ľudovít Klein in his previous bout.
Both men are 5’10", but Oliveira has a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Do Bronxs will have the power edge, as Gamrot has minimal punching power. Both land and absorb significant strikes at a similar rate, landing 3.41 and 3.35, while absorbing 3.26 and 3.04. Gamrot will have a considerable wrestling advantage, finishing 3.1 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Oliveira locks on 2.52 more submissions in that time.
I think Gamrot’s only chance is a close decision, while Oliveira is more dangerous in all the threatening areas of the fight. As long as Oliveira has recovered from his battle in June, I think he finishes Gamrot.
💰 Best Bet: Charles Oliveira by KO/TKO or Submission (+135)
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
