Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi Predictions | UFC Fight Night Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A flyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 246 as No. 2 ranked Brandon “The Assassin Baby" Moreno faces No. 3 Amir “The Prince" Albazi.
- Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024 | Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada – Rogers Place | TV: ESPN
The Black Beast Finale?
No. 11 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis takes on the undefeated Jhonata Diniz. Lewis is fresh off a knockout of Rodrigo Nascimento in May but could be slowing down at 39. Diniz is 8-0 in MMA, with seven knockouts.
Diniz is one inch taller and has a half-inch reach advantage. Diniz has an impressive 1.77 knockdown average per 15 minutes, but Lewis is the UFC’s all-time knockout king. Diniz lands 1.61 significant strikes per minute. However, the two major factors in this fight are Lewis’s edge in experience and his disadvantage in age. Do not expect either fighter to take this bout to the ground.
This is an excellent upset spot for Lewis at +138, but I think there is more value in taking the featured fight special of Lewis to win by KO/TKO or Diniz by Points at +145.
Cold Blooded Thug
No. 3 ranked women’s flyweight Erin Blanchfield faces No. 5 Rose Namajunas. Blanchfield is coming off a loss to Manon Fiorot in March but reeled off nine straight wins before that. Namajunas lost her flyweight debut to Fiorot but has had two consecutive victories in the division since then.
Namajunas is one inch taller, but Blanchfield has a one-inch reach advantage. Namajunas probably has the power edge, but it hasn’t translated in her move from strawweight to flyweight. Blanchfield lands 1.77 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 0.96. She also averages 0.5 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Namajunas and has an 81 percent takedown defense rate. Blanchfield averages 0.59 more submissions per 15 minutes, but Namajunas is a savvy submission artist.
This is another good upset spot, with Namajunas showing value at +112. However, if I’m taking Namajunas, it’ll be by decision at +195.
Flyweight Main Event
Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi
- Odds to Win: Moreno -170 | Albazi +138
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +280 | Submission +440 | Decision -180
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -168 | No +132
Former UFC Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno looks to rebound against Amir Albazi. Moreno has lost two straight, following six straight title fights. Albazi has won six straight, four by finish (1 KO/TKO, 3 Submissions) and five in the UFC.
Moreno is two inches taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. Albazi averages 0.26 more knockdowns per 15 minutes, but Moreno lands 1.07 more significant strikes per minute. Both average a similar amount of takedowns, with Moreno having a slight edge in takedown defense.
Both of Moreno’s consecutive losses were by split decision, and over the last four years, he’s been a consistent finisher. Instead of taking Moreno to win outright at -170, I think there’s more value in him winning by KO/TKO or Submission at +220.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Albazi Betting Card
- Lewis by KO/TKO or Diniz by Points (+145)
- Namajunas by Points (+195)
- Moreno by KO/TKO or Submission (+220)
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