Hernandez vs Pereira Predictions | UFC Fight Night Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A middleweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 245 as No. 13 ranked Anthony “Fluffy" Hernandez faces No. 14 ranked Michel “Demolidor" Pereira.
- Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States – UFC Apex | TV: ESPN
The Tibetan Eagle Swoops
An unranked flyweight fight sees Su “The Tibetan Eagle" Mudaerji take on Charles “InnerG" Johnson. Mudaerji looks to rebound after back-to-back losses to Tim Elliott and Matt Schnell. Johnson is riding a three-fight win streak but did have three straight losses before that.
Johnson is one inch taller, but Mudaerji has a two-inch reach advantage. Mudaerji will have the power edge, knocking down opponents twice as often per 15 minutes and sporting 13 of his 16 wins by knockout. Both fighters land north of 4.60 significant strikes per minute, with Mudaerji absorbing slightly fewer. Neither fighter has a significant grappling statistical edge, but Mudaerji was finished by submission in his last two fights.
Mudaerji has a pretty significant weakness, with all six of his losses coming by way of submission. He has enough power that a long-shot bet on a knockout could pay off handsomely. However, Johnson should win this bout; take him to win by Double Chance KO/TKO or Submission at +240.
Font Enters the Matrix
No. 10 ranked bantamweight Rob Font takes the cage opposite No. 12 Kyler “The Matrix" Phillips. Font has lost four of his last five fights, but they were all against top-ranked fighters in the division. Phillips is riding a three-fight win streak and only has two losses on his record.
Both men are five-foot-eight, but Font has a half-inch reach advantage. They have the same knockdown rate per 15 minutes, land a similar amount of significant strikes, and absorb about the same as well. Phillips is statistically the better wrestler, finishing 1.52 more takedowns per 15 minutes.
Font is 37 years old, and the division is rough on aging fighters. At -430, Phillips is a significant favorite, so we’d rather take him to win by decisions, which gives us better odds of -125.
Middleweight Main Event
Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
- Odds to Win: Hernandez -134 | Pereira +110
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -105 | Submission +145 | Decision +420
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +420 | No -650
No. 13 ranked middleweight Anthony Hernandez takes on No. 14 Michel Pereira. Hernandez is on a five-fight win streak, beating Rodolfo Vieira, Josh Fremd, Marc-Andre Barriault, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Roman Kopylov. Pereira is riding an eight-fight win streak, finishing his last three opponents (2 Submissions, 1 KO/TKO).
Pereira is one inch taller, but Hernandez has a two-inch reach advantage. Pereira knocks down opponents twice as much per 15 minutes and lands 0.86 more significant strikes per minute. However, Hernandez is the much more aggressive grappler, landing 5.09 more takedowns and 2.15 submissions per 15 minutes.
The odds are pretty even, with Hernandez being a slight favorite at -134. I lean toward Hernandez because his ground game could be used to threaten the finish and control the fight.
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira Betting Card
- Johnson Double Chance KO/TKO or Submission (+240)
- Phillips by decision (-125)
- Hernandez to win (-134)
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