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Magny vs Prates Predictions | UFC Fight Night Picks Today, Best Bets

Tyler Mason

Host · Writer

Magny vs Prates Predictions | UFC Fight Night Picks Today, Best Bets

A welterweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 247 as No. 15 ranked Neil Magny faces unranked Carlos Prates.

Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Las Vegas, United States – UFC Apex | TV: ESPN

The Dutch Knight to GM3

UFC veteran Gerald Meerschaert welcomes Reinier de Ridder to the organization in a middleweight bout. Meerschaert is riding a two-fight win streak, beating Bryan Barberena and Edmen Shahbazyan by submission. De Ridder enters the UFC as a former two-division ONE Champion but is 1-2 over his last three fights.

De Ridder is three inches taller and has a 0.5-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter offers much on the feet, with both favoring ending things on the ground. Obviously, de Ridder doesn’t have any UFC statistics, but 11 of his 17 wins have been by submission. Meanwhile, Meerschaert has 29 submission wins over his 54-fight career. That being said, de Ridder should have the edge on the ground.

Given that this is de Ridder’s UFC debut, I’m not a fan of his -300 odds to win, but his odds to win by submission at +200 are more palatable.

Pretty Lion King

Unranked bantamweight Ricky Turcios and Bernardo Sopaj will do battle on Saturday. Turcios is coming off a submission loss and has alternated wins and losses across his four UFC fights. Sopaj is also coming off a loss, but he won his three previous fights before that.

Turcios is three inches taller and has a five-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter has much one-punch power, but Turcios lands 1.57 more significant strikes per minute. However, Sopaj averages 2.17 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and neither fighter has great takedown defense.

This matchup favors Sopaj, but his -355 odds are not appealing. At -154, there’s more value in taking the fight to go the distance.

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Welterweight Main Event

Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates

Odds to Win: Magny -170 | Prates +138
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +280 | Submission +440 | Decision -180
Will the fight go the distance? Yes -168 | No +132

Welterwelter gatekeeper Neil “The Haitian Sensation" Magny takes faces Carlos “The Nightmare" Prates. Magny has alternated wins and losses over his last eight, going 4-4 since March 2022. Prates is riding a ten-fight win streak, three of which were in the UFC.

Magny is two inches taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. Prates has significant one-punch power, knocking down opponents 3.09 times per 15 minutes. He also lands 1.27 more significant strikes per minute. However, he also absorbs 2.54 more. Magny will have the grappling edge, averaging 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes to Prates’s zero. Despite that takedown advantage, Magny will have to contest Prates’s 80 percent takedown defense rate.

Prates has knocked out nine straight opponents, and he’s facing a game, albeit old, Magny. Magny is a tough out, but he’s on the downswing of his career at age 37. At -850, Prates is a massive favorite, and his odds to win by knockout at -290 aren’t great either, so we’ll take him to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 at -115.