MIXED MARTIAL ARTS · 2 years ago

UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill Preview & Best Bets

Tyler Mason

Host · Writer

A Light Heavyweight title bout headlines UFC 300 as former champion Jamahal “Sweet Dreams" Hill challenges current champion Alex “Poatan" Pereira.

Date: Saturday, April 13, 2024 | Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Paradise, Nevada, United States – T-Mobile Arena | TV: PPV

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PPV Deep Shot Parlay

We’re going to start this betting card a little differently. This card is stacked, and Cody Brundage is an extreme underdog at +1120 against Bo Nickal. If Brundage pulls off a crazy upset, we want to pair that with a likely outcome and beef up one of our payouts. Pair Brundage to win with Alex Pereira to get the W by KO/TKO for a juicy +2767 parlay to kick things off.

Rumble in do Bronx

Former lightweight champion Charles “do Bronx" Oliveira takes on rising contender Arman “Ahalkalakets" Tsarukyan. Oliveira is 12-1 over his last 13 fights, winning 11 by finish (4 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 1 decision). Tsarukyan is riding a three-fight win streak, two by KO/TKO.

Oliveira is three inches taller and has a 1.5-inch reach advantage. Both fighters land significant strikes at a similar rate, but Tsarukyan absorbs 1.28 fewer. They both have stopping power, but Oliveira has become an efficient finisher. Tsarukyan has slightly better wrestling but should avoid the ground because of Oliveira’s 2.73 submission rate per 15 minutes.

At +184, there is a significant amount of value on Oliveira. He’s not the champion anymore but is still an extremely dangerous fighter. Take Oliveira to win at +184.

BMF Title

No. 2 ranked lightweight Justin Gaethje defends his BMF Title against No. 2 ranked featherweight Max Holloway. Gaethje won the BMF belt after knocking out Dustin Poirier in the second round at UFC 291, part of a two-fight win streak. Holloway is also riding a two-fight win streak, knocking out Jung Chan-sung in his last fight.

Both fighters are five-foot-eleven, but Gaethje has a one-inch reach advantage. This fight is interesting because it’s a power-punching brawler taking on a durable volume striker. Gaethje has significant power, averaging 0.77 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Both fighters land over seven significant strikes per minute, but Gaethje absorbs 2.75 more. Holloway is more of a submission threat, but don’t expect this bout to leave the feet.

Gaethje’s size and power advantage should be the difference, so expect him to win at -170.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Main Event

Alex Pereira (c) vs. Jamahal Hill

Odds to Win: Pereira -142 | Hill +112
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -270 | Submission +950 | Decision +290
Will the fight go the distance? Yes +300 | No -430

Former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jamahal “Sweet Dreams" Hill returns to challenge for the belt he never lost against current champion Alex “Poatan" Pereira. Hill enters on a four-fight win streak but hasn’t fought since January 2023. Pereira is 2-0 at light heavyweight and, through 11 career fights, is already a two-division champion.

Both fighters are six-foot-four and have an identical 79-inch reach. Pereira is the better striker of the two, but Hill averages 0.15 more knockdowns per 15 minutes. Hill also lands 7.31 significant strikes per minute to Pereira’s 5.0. However, Pereira is a sniper of a striker. There is an opportunity for Hill to pressure Pereira consistently, but Poatan is an excellent counterpuncher.

The statistics favor Hill, but I can’t bet against Poatan in what looks to be a striking match. Take Pereira to win at -140.