UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 Preview & Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Light Heavyweight title bout headlines UFC 303 as No. 1 ranked Jiri “BJP" Prochazka takes on the champion Alex “Poatan" Pereira.
- Date: Saturday, June 29, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Paradise, Nevada, United States – T-Mobile Arena | TV: PPV
Venom or The Future
No. 14 ranked welterweight Michael “Venom" Page enters a UFC cage for the second time, opposite No. 7 Ian “The Future" Machado Garry. Page had a spectacular UFC debut against Kevin Holland, living up to his pre-fight hype. He enters a two-fight win streak, winning eight of his last nine. Garry is undefeated, winning all 14 career fights.
Both men are 6’3", but Page has a 4.5-inch reach advantage. They have very similar knockdown rates, but Page has significantly more knockouts. Garry lands 3.13 more significant strikes per minute, but Page absorbs 1.89 fewer. Surprisingly, they have similar grappling statistics, but this match is not expected to hit the ground. If it does, Garry will have the edge.
Garry is the favorite at -158, which makes sense. However, Page is a crafty striker with a wealth of experience. Venom could pull off an upset here at +128.
Welcome to T-City
No. 3 ranked featherweight Brian “T-City" Ortega faces No. 14 Diego Lopes. Ortega is fresh off a submission of Yair Rodriguez earlier this year but is only 2-2 over his past four. Lopes has won three straight, all finishes (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission).
Lopes is three inches taller and has a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Lopes will have the power edge, knocking down 1.51 opponents per 15 minutes. Ortega lands 0.85 more significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 1.81 more. Ortega will have a takedown advantage, but Lopes averages significantly more submissions per 15 minutes at 5.03.
At -144, Lopes is the favorite and looks like the pick here.
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Main Event
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
- Odds to Win: Pereira +120 | Prochazka -148
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -320 | Submission +950 | Decision +350
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +360 | No -550
Jiri “BJP" Prochazka takes a second kick at the can, challenging the champion Alex “Poatan" Pereira. Prochazka beat Aleksandar Rakic in his rebound fight after dropping the UFC Light Heavyweight title to Poatan. Pereira is on a three-fight win streak and has won ten of his last 11.
Pereira is one inch taller, but Prochazka has a one-inch reach advantage. Poatan will have the power edge, knocking down 0.22 more opponents per 125 minutes. Surprisingly, Prochazka lands 0.65 more significant strikes per minute, but Poatan absorbs 1.78 fewer. Prochazka is the better grappler, but this fight will unlikely hit the mat.
The big difference-maker in this fight is how many strikes Prochazka absorbs to land his power shots. That strategy works against the whole division except Pereira. Take Poatan to win at -148.
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 Betting Card
- Page to win (+128)
- Lopes to win (-144)
- Pereira to win (-148)
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