UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Prediction | Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Featherweight title bout headlines UFC 308 as the champion Ilia “El Matador" Topuria defends his belt against No. 2 ranked Max “Blessed" Holloway.
- Date: Saturday, October 26, 2024 | Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – Etihad Arena | TV: PPV
The Rocket & The Russian
No. 1 ranked light heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev faces No. 5 Aleksandar “Rocket" Rakic. Since his loss to Paul Craig in 2018, Ankalaev has reeled off ten wins, one draw, and one no-contest. Rakic is coming off two straight losses, both by technical knockout.
Ankalaev is one inch taller, but Rakic has a three-inch reach advantage. Both fighters average just over 11 minutes of cage time and have similar knockdown rates. However, Rakic lands on average 0.62 more significant strikes per minute. Ankalaev averages 0.26 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and both have almost identical takedown defense rates at 85 and 86 percent.
Both competitors are careful and calculating fighters who look to take advantage of their opponents’ openings. That can lead to slow and boring fights, but both have shown they can finish opponents. Ankalaev probably wins the battle, but his -385 odds aren’t enticing. I’d instead take the fight to end by KO/TKO at +155.
Bobby Knuckles & Borz
No. 3 ranked middleweight Robert “Bobby Knuckles" Whittaker takes on No. 13 Khamzat “Borz" Chimaev. Whittaker is riding a two-fight win streak, beating Paulo Costa and Ikram Aliskerov. Chimaev is undefeated at 13-0, fighting between welterweight and middleweight.
Chimaev is two inches taller and has a 1.5-inch reach advantage. He also has half the average cage time of Whittaker, with a slightly elevated knockdown average. Chimaev lands 1.18 more significant strikes per minute while absorbing about the same as Whittaker. Borz is the more active wrestler, landing 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes to Whittaker’s 0.8. Chimaev is also more of a submission threat, executing 2.66 submissions per 15 minutes.
All the statistics favor Chimaev, and he is a well-rounded, dangerous fighter. Whittaker is also a well-rounded fighter, falling just short of Chimaev in each category. One area in which Whittaker has the advantage over Chimaev is experience and ability to fight under immense pressure. Chimaev probably wins this bout, but I can’t turn down Whittaker at +198.
UFC Featherweight Championship Main Event
Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
- Odds to Win: Topuria -250 | Holloway +198
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +105 | Submission +390 | Decision +140
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +600 | No -1100
Fresh off winning the BMF title, Max Holloway challenges Ilia Topuria for the UFC Featherweight belt. Holloway is riding a three-fight win streak, his latest being an epic knockout of Justin Gaethje at lightweight. Topuria is undefeated at 15-0, fresh off knocking out potentially the greatest featherweight of all time, Alexander Volkanovski.
Holloway is four inches taller, with both having a 69-inch reach. Topuria averages 0.72 more knockdowns per 15 minutes, but Holloway lands an average of 2.77 more significant strikes per minute. Topuria is a more active grappler, landing 1.92 takedowns and 1.28 submissions per 15 minutes.
This is another bout where I see the favorite as likely to win but can’t overlook the value the underdog offers. I have to ride with Holloway at +198, especially after his emotional win in his previous bout.
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Betting Card
- Ankalaev vs. Rakic ends by KO/TKO (+155)
- Whittaker to win (+198)
- Holloway to win (+198)
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