UFC Fight Night 241: Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy Preview & Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A featherweight bout headlines UFC Vegas 92 as No. 12 ranked Edson Barboza takes on No. 14 ranked Lerone “The Miracle" Murphy.
- Date: Saturday, May 18, 2024 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Enterprise, Nevada, United States – UFC Apex | TV: ESPN+
Overkill or Over the Hill?
No. 9 ranked women’s strawweight Luana Pinheiro takes on No. 12 ranked Angela “Overkill" Hill. Pinheiro is coming off her first UFC loss, but she had strung together three wins in the organization before that and had a nine-fight win streak overall. The 39-year-old Hill is 3-1 over her last four but is on the back nine of her career.
Hill is an inch taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. Pinheiro has more one-punch power, knocking down opponents 0.59 times per 15 minutes, but only two of her 11 wins are by KO/TKO. Hill lands 1.55 more significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 0.56 more. Pinheiro lands significantly more takedowns per 15 minutes at 2.36, and five of her 11 wins are by submission.
Hill’s best chance is pushing the fight’s pace and winning the latter half of the bout. However, I think Pinheiro will be able to take the early portion of the fight and hang on for a decision at +210.
Khaos in the Cage
A welterweight bout features Kalinn “Khaos the Ox Fighter" Williams facing off against Carlston “Mocambique" Harris. Williams has two losses in the UFC to Michel Pereira and Randy Brown but has UFC wins over Alex Morono, Abdul Razak Alhassan, Matthew Semelsberger, Miguel Baeza, and Rolando Bedoya. Harris is riding a two-fright win streak and has only one loss in his last eight fights.
Both fighters are six feet tall, and Harris has a one-inch reach advantage. Williams has the power edge, with half his 14 wins coming by KO/TKO. Williams is a high-volume puncher, landing 5.77 significant strikes per minute, but absorbs more than double that of Harris. Harris will have the grappling advantage, averaging 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Williams could easily win this fight by KO/TKO, but Harris can win by submission or decision at +155.
Featherweight Main Event
Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy
- Odds to Win: Barboza +118 | Murphy -144
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +105 | Submission +1000 | Decision -115
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -106 | No -122
The main event features the human highlight reel Edson Barboza taking on Lerone “The Miracle" Murphy. Barboza has won two in a row but is 2-2 over his last four. Murphy is undefeated in his career at 13-0-1, the only blemish being a split draw with Zubaira Tukhugov.
Barboza is two inches taller and has a 1.5-inch reach advantage. Barboza has the power edge and some of the most deadly kicks ever in the UFC. Barboza lands 0.53 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.94 more. In addition to being the more efficient striker, Murphy averages 0.81 more takedowns per 15 minutes. The Miracle also threatens submissions at a higher rate.
Barboza is known for kicks, but his hands aren’t too shabby. Murphy has no wins on his resume at Barboza’s level, so this is a measuring stick bout. It’s tough to pick a winner of the two, but I think this fight goes the distance. Take the fight to end by decision at -115.
UFC Fight Night 241: Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy Betting Card
- Pinheiro by Decision (+210)
- Harris by Submission of Decision (+155)
- Barboza/Murphy ends in Decision (-115)
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