5 Unluckiest Hitters in MLB Right Now: A Deep Dive into wOBA and xwOBA
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
1. 3B/DH Christopher Morel, Cubs
Christopher Morel stands as baseball's unluckiest hitter according to the disparity between his wOBA and xwOBA. This contrast is both a blessing and a curse for the dynamic Cubs’ third baseman/DH. His .192 batting average and .661 OPS suggest struggles, but advanced metrics tell a different tale.
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Morel's unlucky streak won't last forever, especially for a talented 24-year-old like him. The Cubs thrive when Morel is in form, and his 81-point gap between wOBA and xwOBA should balance out as the season progresses.
2024 wOBA: .293
2024 xwOBA: .374
Difference: -0.081
xwOBA vs. WOBA
xwOBA stands as a refined counterpart to wOBA by eliminating the influence of fielding from its calculations. It solely assesses batted balls based on three key factors: the speed of the ball off the bat, the angle at which it's hit, and at times, the batter's speed. This approach is grounded in the reality that batters have no control over the outcome once the ball leaves the bat. The emphasis is squarely on the quality of contact made; generally, a harder hit ball yields better results than a softer one.
Now that we've set the stage, let's dive into identifying the five most luck-deprived batters in the MLB this season through the lens of their wOBA and xwOBA disparity.
5. SS Francisco Lindor, Mets
Francisco Lindor has been a victim of bad luck in 2024. His .211 batting average and .652 OPS are far below expectations for a player of his caliber. However, Lindor's .340 xwOBA indicates that he has been better than his surface stats suggest. His talent and track record suggest he will improve. As the season continues, Lindor's performance is expected to align more closely with his potential.
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- 2024 wOBA: .289
- 2024 xwOBA: .340
- Difference: -0.051
4. OF Brandon Nimmo, Mets
The New York Mets' hopes for 2024 rest heavily on Brandon Nimmo. Although Nimmo's .334 wOBA isn't poor, it's below his career average and significantly lower than his .393 xwOBA. This 59-point gap suggests Nimmo has been hitting the ball hard with little to show for it.
With a near 50% hard-hit rate, his luck is bound to change. If Nimmo can turn his season around, the Mets might find themselves back in contention.
- 2024 wOBA: .334
- 2024 xwOBA: .393
- Difference: -0.059
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3. 1B Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals
The Kansas City Royals have had a successful 2024, even without much help from Vinnie Pasquantino. The 26-year-old slugger is hitting just .224 with five home runs and a .695 OPS. However, his .365 xwOBA suggests that better times are on the horizon. Pasquantino's ability to hit the ball hard, indicates that his .305 wOBA will likely improve.
When Pasquantino breaks out of his slump, the Royals will benefit even more from his resurgence.
- 2024 wOBA: .305
- 2024 xwOBA: .365
- Difference: -0.060
2. OF Jesus Sanchez, Marlins
Despite Jesús Sánchez's struggles in 2024, his underlying numbers suggest a different story. His .230 batting average and .594 OPS don't reflect his ability to square up the baseball, as evidenced by his high exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. The Marlins' outfielder has been hitting the ball well, but hasn't seen the results.
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Positive regression seems imminent for Sánchez, which would be a boon for the Marlins if he can turn his luck around as the season progresses.
- 2024 wOBA: .269
- 2024 xwOBA: .349
- Difference: -0.080
1. 3B/DH Christopher Morel, Cubs
Christopher Morel stands as baseball's unluckiest hitter according to the disparity between his wOBA and xwOBA. This contrast is both a blessing and a curse for the dynamic Cubs’ third baseman/DH. His .192 batting average and .661 OPS suggest struggles, but advanced metrics tell a different tale.
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Morel's unlucky streak won't last forever, especially for a talented 24-year-old like him. The Cubs thrive when Morel is in form, and his 81-point gap between wOBA and xwOBA should balance out as the season progresses.
2024 wOBA: .293
2024 xwOBA: .374
Difference: -0.081
xwOBA vs. WOBA
xwOBA stands as a refined counterpart to wOBA by eliminating the influence of fielding from its calculations. It solely assesses batted balls based on three key factors: the speed of the ball off the bat, the angle at which it's hit, and at times, the batter's speed. This approach is grounded in the reality that batters have no control over the outcome once the ball leaves the bat. The emphasis is squarely on the quality of contact made; generally, a harder hit ball yields better results than a softer one.
Now that we've set the stage, let's dive into identifying the five most luck-deprived batters in the MLB this season through the lens of their wOBA and xwOBA disparity.
