American League and National League Cy Young Award Favorites and Predictions
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
As we reach the midpoint of the 2025 MLB season, the Cy Young races in both leagues are shaping up to be thrilling—with a mix of new blood, comeback stories, and underrated aces all jockeying for position. While pitchers like Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers and Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates are grabbing headlines, the betting markets suggest there’s still room for movement.
Here’s a deep dive into the current favorites, sleeper values, and where bettors might find the best edge in both leagues.
American League Cy Young: Skubal Leads, But It’s Far From Settled
Current Odds (via major sportsbooks):
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Tariq Skubal (DET): +200
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Max Fried (NYY): +500
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Hunter Brown (HOU): +600
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Jacob deGrom (TEX): +700
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Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): +850
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Others: 12/1 or longer
Tariq Skubal: The Front-Runner Again?
Skubal is following up his 2024 Cy Young-winning campaign with another elite season. He leads the AL in WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio and has been dominant at home for a Detroit team contending in the AL Central. Still, betting +200 in June carries little value—especially considering how much volatility pitching brings over the summer.
Max Fried & Hunter Brown: High Ceiling, High Risk
Fried has been lights out for the Yankees, but durability is the issue. The same applies to Brown, who’s flashing ace potential but has yet to clear the “workhorse” bar fully. If Fried can stay healthy through September, he’s the best value of the top tier.
Jacob deGrom & Nathan Eovaldi: The Rangers Conundrum
Both have Cy Young stuff and strong metrics—Eovaldi in particular has numbers rivaling Skubal’s—but the Rangers aren’t scoring runs, and both have durability concerns. In a tight race, lack of wins or innings could cost them.
🔥 Best Bet: Brown (+600)
He has the combination of breakout narrative, elite metrics, and a team that could surge in the second half.
💡 Fade Alert: Fried
Still valuable at +500, but the likelihood he misses time with an arm issue is just too high. Better to wait and live bet if he’s healthy into late August.
National League Cy Young: Skenes, Wheeler, and the Wild Cards
Current Odds:
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Paul Skenes (PIT): +240
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Zack Wheeler (PHI): +350
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): +500
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Jesús Luzardo (PHI): +1600
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Logan Webb (SF): +1800
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Others: 20/1+
Paul Skenes: The Darling of the Media and the Books
The rookie phenom is everything the Pirates hoped for—electric fastball, big strikeout totals, and competitive fire. But will the Pirates limit his innings? Will he get enough wins on a sub-.500 team? These are real concerns for backers at short odds.
Zack Wheeler: The Perpetually Underrated Ace
Wheeler may never win the Cy Young on narrative alone, but his performance continues to be elite. He leads the NL in innings and WHIP, has nearly 20 consecutive scoreless innings, and is the workhorse behind a Phillies team leading the NL East. His +350 odds still offer value.
Yamamoto & Luzardo: Talent vs. Trust
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Yamamoto has quietly been the Dodgers’ most reliable starter, but with LA’s rotation injuries and playoff planning, don’t be surprised if they put him on “phantom IL” rest in August. That hurts his long-term case.
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Luzardo is a wildcard. He has Cy Young-level stuff, but his health history is baked into his longshot +1600 odds. If—and it’s a big if—he stays healthy, he could absolutely win.
🔥 Best Bet: Zack Wheeler (+350)
He’s due. He’s dominant. He’s healthy. And if voters prioritize consistent excellence over novelty, this could finally be his year.
💡 Dark Horse Pick: Jesús Luzardo (+1600)
Worth a sprinkle for upside chasers—especially in fantasy leagues or exotic betting pools.
Betting Strategy: Where’s the Value?
| League | Best Value Bet | Risky Longshot | Fade Alert |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL | Hunter Brown (+600) | Nathan Eovaldi (+850) | Max Fried (+500) |
| NL | Zack Wheeler (+350) | Jesús Luzardo (+1600) | Paul Skenes (+240) |
Why Fade Skenes? It’s not about talent—it’s about usage. The Pirates may shut him down in September. That’s enough of a red flag to seek better value elsewhere.
Final Thoughts: Cy Young Races Heating Up
With 3+ months still to play, the 2025 Cy Young races are far from over. The favorites—Skubal and Skenes—are worthy, but not without risk. In a season where injuries, innings limits, and playoff positioning will all play a role, bettors should be focused on value and narrative paths.
If you’re betting now:
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Take a shot on Wheeler or Brown.
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Hedge late with safer money on Skubal if he keeps this up.
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And if Luzardo stays healthy… you heard it here first.
You can read all about what’s going on in Major League Baseball at SportsGrid.com.
