MLB · 1 year ago

Blue Jays vs. Angels Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

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Blue Jays vs. Angels Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Nothing was gained; nothing was lost yesterday. We took the Twins on the ML, and they won 13-3. We took Hunter Greene under 7.5 K’s and under 6.5 K’s, both at a half unit, and he finished with eight strikeouts. He absolutely dominated and still only went over by one strikeout. I stand by that one.

Whatever. Back on the grind.

2024 Record: 99-104 (-8.33 U)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jose Berrios (3.97 ERA) vs. Tyler Anderson (2.99 ERA)

This is my favorite “avoid the sweep” play today. Teams facing a sweep in a three-game series are now 136-108, netting bettors 38.83 units. There are plenty on the board today if you want to play them all: Royals, Rockies, Pirates, Rangers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rays, and the Angels. I do lean towards the Cubs, Rangers, and Rockies, but the Angels is a play for me.

I’ve spoken about how Tyler Anderson is not a pitcher I planned on backing moving forward, but I’m okay with it when I look at Berrios’ numbers.

Tyler Anderson’s 2.99 ERA is due to regress, with a 4.20 xERA and 4.70 SIERA. Berrios is just as bad, sitting with a 3.97 ERA but a 5.14 xERA and 4.50 SIERA.

The pitching matchup is essentially a crapshoot, but I have reason to believe that Anderson can outduel Berrios today.

Anderson has performed worse at home this year, but that’s because his ERA is under two on the road. Whenever Berrios leaves Canada, he’s gotten destroyed, rocking a 5.29 ERA this year on the road.

The Angels have a 93 wRC+ over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching, ranking 21st in that span. That’s not very good, but it’s better than the Blue Jays, who have a 79 wRC+ against lefties over the last two weeks. The Angels also had the second-highest hard-hit rate during that span, while the Blue Jays were 11th.

Both teams in these respective splits have an 89 wRC+ overall. However, against righties at home, the Angels have a 97 wRC+ this year compared to the Jays against lefties on the road at 93.

I like Anderson a bit better in this game and the Angels offense a bit better in this game. Then we go to the bullpens, and neither team is good, but it’s more expensive to go to the Angel’s first five and then the entire game. I don’t see an edge for the Jays in the later innings.

We should see the best of the Angels bullpen no matter the score. They have yet to use them all series due to getting beat easily twice, and they have an off-day on Thursday. Hunter Strickland (3.40 ERA), Ben Joyce (2.70 ERA), Jose Quijada (2.57 ERA), and Hans Crouse (3.32 ERA) are all solid arms and can shut down this mediocre Blue Jays offense.

I price the Angels at -125 favorites in this game, and that’s without factoring in the profitable system. I know the Angels stink, but so do the Blue Jays. I like the team at home with their ace on the mound to avoid the sweep.