Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Grayson Rodriguez (3.86 ERA) vs. Chris Bassitt (4.02 ERA)

I miss going to war with Chris Bassitt. It feels like the day to draw our swords and battle with the 35-year-old right-hander.

The Orioles own him. They beat him in their last matchup, scoring five runs in four innings against him. I’ve watched a lot of Chris Bassitt starts in my life. I’m not sure why, but I have. I usually lean toward a pitcher adjusting a lousy start, but Bassitt is a different story.

He doesn’t blow you away with anything; he’s a kitchen sink pitcher who tries to work the corners. A typical Bassitt start is carving through the first time in the order. The team waits for their pitch, but it’s already deep into the game. That’s how he can escape with his six-inning, two-run outings. However, the Orioles got to him early last time; they knew his plan.

Through 76 PA against the Orioles’ current roster, they are hitting .400 against him. They have also posted a .444 xSLG and a .329 xwOBA against Bassitt. Adding Eloy Jimenez to this lineup today would be a nice boost, as he’s 5-11 against Bassitt in his career. They better play him. The rest of the lineup crushes him, so if he doesn’t, that’s okay, but it’s foolish not to.

Grayson could have been better against the Blue Jays, but he’s the superior pitcher and has better stats against the Jays’ current roster. Through 67 PA, they are hitting .311 with a .282 xwOBA and a .363 xSLG. Solid surface-level stats, but the quality of contact is minimal.

The Blue Jays also gutted their bullpen, trading Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards, and Nate Pearson. To elongate the bullpen, the Orioles added Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto. Both teams had an off day, so if the best arms are rested, I’m taking Baltimore every day of the week.

Since the All-Star break, the Orioles have a 141 wRC+ (4th) versus the Blue Jays at a 110 wRC+ (13th) against right-handed pitching.

The Orioles have the advantage in every spot and are excellent in this specific spot. When the Orioles are road favorites with a day of rest and their opponent is coming off a loss, they are 50-24 (67.57%) with an absurd 36% ROI.

It’s a bit expensive and a divisional game, so there is always room for some flukey nonsense. I’m going to play it for a unit and not lay juice, but I have to do it.

The Pick: Orioles ML (-140) Risk 1 Unit

By Peter Appel

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