Nothing was gained; nothing was lost yesterday. We took the Twins on the ML, and they won 13-3. We took Hunter Greene under 7.5 K’s and under 6.5 K’s, both at a half unit, and he finished with eight strikeouts. He absolutely dominated and still only went over by one strikeout. I stand by that one.

Whatever. Back on the grind. 

2024 Record: 99-104 (-8.33 U)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Gibson (3.99 ERA) vs. Emilio Pagan (4.22 ERA)

I’m impressed with how the Reds are swinging the bat right now. We haven’t had an explosive game of offense in Great American Ballpark in this series yet, and it’s a beautiful day for runs in Cincinnati. I like the Red’s bullpen, but the Cardinal’s bats have yet to show up, and they may be due to do so. It’s challenging to handicap a bullpen game, but I am confident the Reds put up runs here.

Kyle Gibson’s 3.99 ERA this year is due to inflate. His xFIP and FIP are over four; his 4.85 xERA and 4.28 SIERA aren’t great. It’s mainly because he has a below-average strikeout, walk, and Hard-Hit rate. While his ground-ball rate is above average at 46%, it’s the lowest mark he’s had in his entire career.

The Reds’ current roster has solid numbers against Gibson. Through 84 PA, they are hitting .325 with a .333 xwOBA and a .443 xSLG. I hope Ty France plays; he’s 5-8 against Gibson in his career. He hit a home run yesterday, so no reason to sit him. I hope Jake Fraley is in the lineup as well. He’s 5-9 with two home runs against Gibson.

He threw a six-inning, one-run performance against the Reds last time he faced them in Cincinnati. The books and I are aligned on him not repeating that performance, as they are hanging a 3.5 earned run line or a 2.5 line juiced towards the over for Gibson, even though he’s only been over that in six of his last 20 starts.

The Red’s offense is solid against right-handed pitching at home, rocking the 12th-highest OPS among 30 teams. Over the last two weeks, they have the 12th highest wRC+ against righties in any ballpark. They also had the third-highest hard-hit rate in that span. I’ve watched every inning of the past two games; they see the ball well.

They crushed Sonny Gray and gave Erick Fedde fits, but he got out of trouble with runners on base. I don’t expect the same for Gibson today.

The Cardinals bullpen is solid, but I’m projecting at least three runs from Gibson. If the Reds get stalled, we tip our cap, but I will run it against a Cardinals bullpen outside the top ten in most metrics. Most runs come early, but I’m not counting out a late push to get us there. I want a plus price here, but I would be fine taking it to -115.

The Pick: Reds Team Total Over 4.5 (+100) Risk 1 Unit

By Peter Appel

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