Dodgers vs Padres Divisional Playoffs Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
Regular season success and personal accolades won’t count for much unless the Los Angeles Dodgers go on an extended playoff run. Even then, anything short of a World Series would be considered a disappointment in LA. The Dodgers start their trek to glory with an NLDS matchup against a familiar SoCal foe. The San Diego Padres dispatched the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card Round, setting up an all-time grudge match in the divisional series. Bettors have given the Padres a puncher’s chance in this one, and we still think there’s value in backing the underdogs.
Dodgers vs Padres Series Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, October 5 – 8:38 pm ET @ Dodger Stadium
- Game 2: Sunday, October 6 – 8:03 pm ET @ Dodger Stadium
- Game 3: Tuesday, October 8 – TBD @ PETCO Park
- Game 4: Wednesday, October 9 – TBD @ PETCO Park (if necessary)
- Game 5: Friday, October 11 – TBD @ Dodger Stadium (if necessary)
Dodgers vs Padres Series Odds
- Series Odds: Dodgers -142 | Padres +120
- Series Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+172) | Padres +1.5 (-225)
- Series Total: OVER 4.5 (+148) | UNDER 4.5 (-184)
Dodgers vs Padres Series Winner Best Bet: Padres +120
Arguably, no team has looked more hapless than the Dodgers in the postseason. Granted, they won it all in the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but they didn’t have as much time to shoot themselves in the foot. Los Angeles hasn’t strung together an entire 162-game season with a successful playoff run that ended in a World Series since 1988. With the state of their pitching staff, we’re not expecting that to change in 2024. The Dodgers ended the campaign with the 14th-ranked ERA, watching the number balloon to 3.97 over the past month. That increase coincides with a more effective hitting approach from the Padres, who have seen a modest increase in their OPS. More runs should start to follow, as there’s been an inverse relationship with their offensive output. Scoring is down marginally despite the increased productivity, supporting the Padres as progression candidates when it matters most. We saw that start to play out in the Wild Card Round, and we expect it to continue against the Dodgers.
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Dodgers vs Padres Best Bet Total: Under 4.5
Limited playoff experience hampers the Dodgers’ outlook versus the Padres. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty head into October with limited playoff experience and are expected to shoulder the pitching load against the Padres. Conversely, the Padres have a tried and tested group of batters that have tasted the postseason in three of the past five seasons. We saw the best they had to offer against a stout Braves’ staff, and they’re familiar with what the Dodgers’ rotation will be throwing their way. San Diego’s best chance of punching their way into the NLCS comes at home; we expect them to take care of business in four or less.
Dodgers vs Padres Best Player Props
Luis Arraez to Record 10 or More Hits +2300
Fresh off his third consecutive batting title, Luis Arraez is ready to carry his success into the postseason. The Padres first baseman enters the Divisional Round in fine form, recording seven hits across his last four outings. Still, some metrics point toward sustained success throughout the playoffs. Arraez is on par with his expected batting average but is operating below his expected slugging percentage. That suggests he could see a burst of power against the Dodgers as he works up to expected range. Arraez has also reserved his best efforts for the postseason, putting together a .321 batting average and .464 slugging percentage in seven postseason games. It’s a lofty target to reach, but at +2300, it’s worth the investment. We’re betting Arraez is a pivotal contributor to the Padres’ charge.
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