Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox @ 10:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson (4.35 ERA) vs. Brayan Bello (4.80 ERA)

I’m not sure if anyone has noticed, but Ryne Nelson is pitching out of his mind right now. The Diamondbacks have the better bullpen; they’ll have a pitching advantage this entire game. Both offenses are hot, but with the Red Sox struggles in Fenway this season, Arizona should win this game.

Ryne Nelson's four-seamer had 20" of iVB yesterday.

That would be the most vertical break of all SP's fastballs if it held through the season. 100th percentile.

— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) August 17, 2024

Induced vertical breaks on four-seam fastballs give the appearance of the ball “rising” to the hitter. In reality, the ball just isn’t dropping at an average rate due to gravity. The high spin keeps the ball up, so Nelson has been blowing it past hitters for a while now. He put up a 2.41 ERA in July and posted a 3.38 ERA through three starts in August. His strikeout rate is up, his Stuff+ is up, and he has 58 strikeouts to just 11 walks over his last ten starts.

He has a tough start against this Red Sox offense, which has been excellent this season and lately. Over the past two weeks against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox have a 120 wRC+ and a .803 OPS, which place them eighth and fourth, respectively. Since August began, they have the fourth-best OPS and wRC+ in baseball.

Nelson can shut down this Red Sox offense, but even if he’s around six innings and three runs, the Diamondbacks offense should have our backs.

Brayan Bello will get the ball for Boston. He’s coming off back-to-back excellent starts, but this is a short track record of success. The game before that start, he got hit up by the Royals and put up a 4.29 ERA in July. His ERA is an entire run worse in Fenway, and he also has a challenging matchup against Arizona.

Since August 1, no team has been better against right-handed pitching than the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have the No. 1 OPS at .888 and No. 1 wRC+ at 145. The second best is the Royals at 133, and we saw what they did to Bello. If we only look at the last two weeks, Arizona still ranks No. 1 in OPS and wRC+.

These aren’t slap hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup either; they are hitting for power and ranking second in SLG and first in ISO. It’s a team firing on all cylinders offensively, and they get the weaker starter today.

The bullpen advantage goes toward the Diamondbacks. Both units were rested after an off-day yesterday, but Arizona ranks sixth in bullpen ERA since July 1, while the Red Sox rank dead last at 6.09. This Red Sox bullpen is terrible, so if the starters get locked in a stalemate, the Snakes have the advantage late.

The Diamondbacks are rolling on the road, winning ten of their last 14 games. The Red Sox are a strange 29-32 at home this year. The home-field advantage is zero here, as Boston has proved they are worse at home this season.

The Red Sox are playing excellent baseball, and Arizona is, too. This line should be closer to -110 on both sides, so I’m happy to play the Snakes as long as they are a plus price.

The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+115) Risk 1 Unit

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