MLB · 1 year ago

MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres

Sportsgrid Staff

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MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres

Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller (3.84 ERA) vs. Michael King (3.51 ERA)

Michael King has been silently pitching his butt off for two months. Bryce Miller is a great talent but has struggled on the road and hasn’t been sharp over the past two months. This is a two-game series, which we often see split, and I’m willing to sell the Mariners offense after one good game.

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Adam Mazur wasn’t ready, but let’s see how Seattle does against Michael King. As stated earlier, he’s been on a heater. He threw 30 innings in May with a 34-8 K/BB ratio at a 3.00 ERA. In June, he put up a 2.67 ERA over 33.2 innings with a 41-10 K/BB ratio. His last start against a hot Rangers squad was a good one, throwing into the sixth inning while only allowing one run.

We’ve talked about the Mariners’ offense so often that we all know the deal. They still have the worst batting average in the major leagues, the worst this season against righties, and the worst over the last 30 days. They also have the highest strikeout rate in both spans.

The Mariners still struggle against breaking balls. Mazur had no command of anything besides his curveball, and the Mariners are big-league hitters; they can sit on something and crush it if a pitcher can only throw one pitch. King is a lot better, and as long as he has command of multiple pitches, that should give the Mariners trouble.

This is also a fade of Bryce Miller. He is up there for the widest gap between home and road starts. On the road, his ERA is over six, and his ERA is 2.10 at home.

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He was unbelievable in April, posting a 1.19 ERA. In May, that rose to 5.22; in June, it was another below-average month, posting a 4.68 ERA.

King has the edge in ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. He also has a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate. I view King as the superior pitcher, and while he’s struggled in home starts to an ERA over four, it’s better than Miller’s road numbers.

In terms of offense, the Padres have a clear edge. They are still tied for the number one wRC+ at home and even scored three late runs against Gilbert.

I decided to take the Padres through the entire game because of how their bullpen stacks up. King is -160 to go over 17.5 pitching outs, so if we project six innings from him, the rest of the game should be cleaned up. The Padres have an off day tomorrow, while the Mariners have a game against the Angels tomorrow.

The Padres’ three best relievers, Robert Suarez (1.77 ERA), Jeremiah Estrada (2.84 ERA), and Adrian Morejon (2.33 ERA) all haven’t thrown in three days, and they have another off-day tomorrow. It’s almost a guarantee we see all three today. The Mariners also have a solid bullpen, and they are pretty rested, but I always go full game when I have the better offense, especially at home.

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I am hesitant about something, but I still locked it in. That’s why I’m not laying juice here. The Padres might be going through a “dead streak” as they’ve lost three straight. When the Padres crumble, it’s often for prolonged stretches. I’m trusting them today, and with all the advantages at home, they will win this one to grab a split series. Keep this one to -140 or better.