MLB Player Props (May 10): 2 Home Runs Hitters in Mets vs. Braves
Grant White
Host · Writer
There’s nothing like a fresh slate of MLB games to kick off the weekend. We’re running through the SportsGrid MLB Player Props, identifying the pre-eminent plus-money wagers that yield a long-term advantage for bettors.
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Pete Alonso – To Record a Home Run (+630)
The New York Mets welcome the Atlanta Braves to Citi Field for a crucial NL East showdown this weekend. The Mets trail the Braves by 5.0 games, with both squads needing to catch the Philadelphia Phillies atop the standings. We’re expecting New York will be ready to defend Queens, led by their premier home run hitter.
Even though he already has nine homers, it’s been a tepid start to the year for Pete Alonso. The two-time Home Run champ is below career norms virtually across the board. Only Alonso’s 12.3% barrel rate is within a standard deviation of average, but even that one is below his career benchmark of 14.1%. Otherwise, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage, and average exit velocity are all below where we typically expect to find them.
Nevertheless, the betting market has overreacted to his quiet start, making now the time to back the perennial 40-home run hitter. Alonso is a natural progression candidate and should start to see his metrics work their way back up toward average. In doing so, Alonso becomes an ideal pick to back in the home run prop market.
Charlie Morton is still dealing from the bump in his age-40 season, but there are some cracks starting to form in the foundation. Specifically, the veteran righty is giving up below-average 7.2% hard-hit and 23.8% whiff rates. Surely, pitching to contact will come back to hurt him against Alonso and the Mets.
More MLB: Friday’s Ultimate Betting Guide
Marcell Ozuna – To Record a Home Run (+450)
The Braves have a bevy of heavy hitters in their lineup that can also do damage. Although Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson get the lion’s share of the credit, look past Marcell Ozuna at your own peril.
Ozuna has cemented himself as the pre-eminent slugger in the National League early in 2024. The Braves designated hitter has an MVP-worth 1.042 OPS, swatting 12 long fly balls and driving in 38. More importantly, Ozuna has an analytics profile supporting ongoing success.
Heading into this weekend’s action, Ozuna ranks in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average. That standing is complemented by 96th and 97th percentile rankings in barrel and hard-hit rate, respectively.
Predictably, the right-handed batting Ozuna does his best work versus lefties, which is bad news for Jose Quintana. Worse, the Mets southpaw sits below the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, expected ERA, and whiff rate. Inevitably, Braves hitters will get to Quintana and when they do, we expect Ozuna to be slow-trotting around the bags.
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