MLB Player Props (May 6): Two Home Run Hitters Worth Betting

It’s a typically quiet Monday on the MLB schedule, but there’s still a ton of value to be had. We’re running through the SportsGrid MLB Player Props, identifying the pre-eminent plus-money wagers that yield a long-term advantage for bettors.

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Ryan Jeffers (+680) – To Hit A Home Run

The Minnesota Twins kick off a four-game set against the Seattle Mariners on Monday, continuing their recent upward trajectory. The Twins have been the top-hitting team in the AL over the past couple of weeks, and Ryan Jeffers has been a primary contributor. 

Jeffers enters Monday’s inter-divisional affair on a modest five-game hitting streak. More impressively, the right-handed batting catcher has 16 hits over his previous 13 contests, including three home runs and nine extra-base hits. Those power numbers are also reflected in his underlying metrics, with Jeffers sitting among the upper-echelon of batters in expected slugging percentage and barrel rate. 

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Luis Castillo hasn’t maintained his usual standard into 2024. The Mariners starting pitcher has already been tagged for five home runs in 41.2 innings pitched, also sitting among the bottom 33% of pitchers in hard-hit rate. Jeffers will add to that misery at Target Field, sending a Castillo offering into orbit and cashing as a substantive +680 longshot in the home run market.

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Manny Machado (+560) – To Hit A Home Run

Manny Machado is spearheading a San Diego Padres revival. Winners of four of their past five, the Padres are looking to extend their hot streak into Monday’s series opener versus the Chicago Cubs. 

Offense has been the foundation of the Padres’ recent run, and that’s unlikely to change at Wrigley Field. San Diego is averaging 7.2 runs per game across the five-game sample, with Machado cementing himself as a primary contributor. The six-time All-Star has totaled six hits over that stretch, including two doubles, a home run, and eight RBI. More importantly, that success is grounded in solid analytics. 

Machado continues to rate as an elite hitter. He sits in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate and 86th percentile in barrel percentage, culminating with a .473 expected slugging percentage. Moreover, Machado’s actual slugging percentage of .407 remains substantially below that, implying he remains a progression candidate over the coming weeks. 

Irrespective of wind direction at Wrigley Field, Machado is primed to sustain his onslaught against the Cubs. We’re backing him as a +560 longshot to send one into the outfield bleachers. 

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